Ask yourself why no-one told you that.

M0nica

Put it this way. We never had to discuss this issue when other governments were in power.

All governments do it at stometime or another, but nowhere nearly as many or as often.

Too many for misfortune, so many that rank carelessness can be the only explanation.

Do you think we 'have to' discuss it now, or that it is made into News by the media who call every change of policy a 'U turn'?

But lots of people won't place bets on a Labour win if they don't think it will happen . The odds are lower on favourites.

I'm not at all sure that as a marketing strategy it is a good one. What are they supposed to be marketing?

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So ....... this is the scenario:

1) Lots of people place bets for Labour to win.

2) Labour loses.

3) Lots of people lose money.

4) Ladbroke makes a lot of money.

Obviously just a marketing strategy.
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Put it this way. We never had to discuss this issue when other governments were in power.

All governments do it at stometime or another, but nowhere nearly as many or as often.

Too many for misfortune, so many that rank carelessness can be the only explanation.

Doodledog

*M0nica*, who decides what is a U turn and what is an amendment to a policy? Or when such a change is a news story? That is exactly the point of the thread, really.

U turns are used by the media to make things sound much worse than they are.
I would prefer a government to admit they got it wrong and amend the mistake than plough on regardless.
U turns sound far too dramatic which of course the media loves.

M0nica, who decides what is a U turn and what is an amendment to a policy? Or when such a change is a news story? That is exactly the point of the thread, really.

MOnica I read the guardian the I read the daily mail on line with my morning cuppa. I buy the Guardian and occasionally a Times or Telegraph. The Guardian lost good journalists, kept the awful Owen Jones. The DM predictable and I’m afraid hugely influential. So many see it as printing The truth
Radio five Nicky Campbell phone in attempts a balanced presentation he’s good at encouraging all opinions

Doodledog

James O'Brien said this morning on LBC that Labour is now Ladbrokes' favourite to win the most seats in the next GE, and is asking why most people would be unaware of that.

I agree with J O'B that it is unlikely to be a widely known fact - it's not even a discussion point. In fact, we are routinely told that a Reform win is inevitable, and even people who would hate to see that happen seem resigned to that inevitability. Why are the media not reporting that Ladbrokes has put Labour at the top, based on opinion polls? Why are they instead telling us that Reform is a shoe-in?

O'Brien acknowledges that Starmer is unpopular, but is asking why we have not been kept in the picture about the polling, and why it is that the LP is currently the most popular one, given the 'optics'.

Anyone interested can catch the clip on YouTube (search for 'ask yourself why no-one told you that'). Most of the clip is about stories that aren't reported by the media, and that is interesting in itself.

I was listening earlier - I haven't heard it all because I'm on my way out. My quick answer would be our biased news sources. It's one if the reasons I put up videos that at least have a more centered view.

Yesterday I had to listen to a neighbour telling me how the new laws on leases will affect us. No facts only Daily Mail style headlines, and he was wrong! It's so depressing that people like him seem to want things to go wrong, to despise anyone who isn't them and doesn't whinge for England.

Will look to see others views when I get back but it is really time people looked for the truth instead something, anything to complain about whether it's true or not!

Iam64

I’ve been reassured when listening to the audience at Question Time, Any Wuestions/Answers. The attitudes don’t reflect the obsession with Labour dreadful/Reform the answer so often seen on tv or radio reports. Print media is similarly biased.

Grannygravy is spot on about how dreadful Labour comms continue to be.

What papers and Radio programmes do your read? I have yet to hear or read anything that suggests that Reform is the answer to anything and both rapidly publish any stories where Reform blow up in their own faces.

That Labour is incompetent, how many U turns have their been, goes without saying?

What is it Lady Bracknell says in 'The Importance of Being Ernes?t 'To lose one (parent) may be regarded as a misfortune, to lose two looks like carelessness! In this case applied to U turns. Is it 15 or 16 (that we know of)? I lose track

Labour does publicise or at least publish its achievements but with a media dominated by papers owned by right-wing, tax-exile billionaires, where is one going to read about it in the main stream media other than in the Guardian or the Mirror? I don’t believe either covered what is essentially a short-life story about current betting odds. I think it was just something James O’B picked up on social media.

Anyway, I was glad to see the BBC pushing back hard at Reform yesterday evening on Newsnight. Victoria Derbyshire and Caroline Lucas made mincemeat of Zia Yusuf as he tried to claim that young white men can’t get jobs because of the Equality Act 2010. Just another culture war being stoked by this odious party.

Maybe it is a good thing that Reform think they are going to win, it may mean the voters can't be bothered to turn out to vote.

I have never understood the popularity of reform, unless you're a billionaire...

The point, though, is that whatever happens in the future, yesterday the LP was favourite to win, but that story did not make the news. If I hadn't happened to listen to James O'Brien I would be no wiser either.

Neither I nor J O'B is saying that anything is a foregone conclusion based on Ladbrokes' odds - that is not the point of the thread, or the thrust of the radio programme, which is that we are only being told what the media (and through them the vested interests of a few rich men) want to tell us.

We see on here that many believe that Reform is the most popular party, but why do they think that? Most people are fully aware that just because they and their friends think something doesn't mean that 'everyone' does, so they must get their beliefs from somewhere, and that is likely to be news reports and algorithms on SM.

Although Labour have made mistakes which they have admitted and tried to change, so called U turns, I still feel more positive with them in power than I did with 14 years of Tory misrule.

I’ve been reassured when listening to the audience at Question Time, Any Wuestions/Answers. The attitudes don’t reflect the obsession with Labour dreadful/Reform the answer so often seen on tv or radio reports. Print media is similarly biased.

Grannygravy is spot on about how dreadful Labour comms continue to be.

Graphite Voting patterns are far more complex than you suggest. Younger age groups are far less likely to vote than older age groups and proprtion of population voting is fslling and young people ae more likelyto vote for smaller parties like Lib Dems and Greens.

At this distance of time from an election voters intentions are based on how they feel now about this government as it too is now.

Three years from now if employment and wages are rising the Labour party could get back in with a similar majority. Three years from now, if employment is still growing, prices are rising and the NHS is still the basket case it is now. Labour may not stand a cats chance of returning to power.

I am not sure it is particularly Reforms performance that is causing unease in the Labour camp though.
Also once a government gets to this type of situation it is quite hard to row it back in terms of media portrayal and public perception.
I knew Johnson was finished when Ant and Dec took the p... out of him.

Oh yes, I don’t think it is a prediction of anything much, but I did find it interesting that there was little or no reporting of the matter, when we are constantly told how well Reform is doing.

By definition, we don’t know what doesn’t make it into news reports, so what else are we unaware of, and how much are we influenced by the stories that do get published?

I do hear of people not bothering to vote because they think they know how others will vote (‘It’s not worth it - Xparty could put a donkey up in this area and it will get in’) so is constantly hearing about how Reform is going to sweep the boards likely to increase their chances of forming a government? Or might it cause disgruntlement in the Labour rank and file, and lead to rebellions from within?

GrannyGravy13

In answer to the OP ^because the Labour comms team is dreadful and getting their messages out^

Is there in fact anyone in charge of their communications?
You'd think the recent ones were plotting against Labour, a fifth column.

The next election may well be in 2029 and I wonder how many people are thinking that far ahead.
Much can happen in the next three+ years.

Between 2019 and 2024, only 600,000 more people registered to vote, with the total electorate increasing to 48.2 from 47.6 million.
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10009/CBP-10009.pdf

Turnout in 2024 was 59.7%, down from 67.3% in 2019 but the latter was an exception year with Johnson trying to get a mandate for Brexit.

ONS say the population increased by 2.6 million in that time with about 4 million live births over 5 years and 3.5 million deaths. The rest is presumably migration, people who are not UK citizens and therefore ineligible to vote.

That 600,000 does look as though a good proportion of newly eligible adults is at least registering to vote even if they don’t bother to exercise that right.

The fact is that the five main parties in England did all field a similar number of candidates in 2024 and Labour did win almost 3 million more votes than its nearest rivals.

Reform effectively put Labour in power by splitting the right wing vote. The Tories and Reform together polled more than Labour.

FPTP is the main problem here. The Tories only have themselves to blame for the result in 2024 and have always opposed PR anyway.

I disagree that turnout will fall. What we are seeing is the traditional Tory voters literally dying out - or should I say Tory/Reform voters since 2024.

You may need to zoom in to see the detail on the graphic.

Many young people are being galvanised to oppose the rise of Reform and support the Greens instead. 16 and 17 year olds joining the electorate is likely to increase that support. We are just seeing a change of the old guard.

The only reason? How do you know that? Have you seen a survey the rest of us haven't?

Flippin2

But who takes part in these opinion polls? I've never been asked ,has anyone on here ?

Yes, I am part of the YouGov panel and get reuests to complete uestionnaires about once a month.

The only reason people are saying thet Labour will win the next election is because all the other parties are in dissarray. This does not mean that those polled want a Labour government, merely that they can so no other option.

What I forecast is that if British politics stays in the negativw quagmire it is in at the moment we will have the lowest voter turnout ever recorded. It may well fall below 50%.

What vaildity does a party have as a government when only half the electorate did not vote and effiectively less than quarter of the electorate voted for them.

GrannyGravy13

In answer to the OP ^because the Labour comms team is dreadful and getting their messages out^

Oh how I agree!

The next GE is some way off yet- but on current form, despite all the set backs in current challenging times- Conservatives have been haemorrhaging to Reform, Reform are going down in the polls so Ladbroke's favourite for the L party to win the most seats in the next GE seems about par for the course....

Flippin2

But who takes part in these opinion polls? I've never been asked ,has anyone on here ?

Yes. Less so now, as I expect they mostly happen online, but I used to often be stopped in the city centre and asked if I would answer some questions in return for a small present, such as a duster or biro . I suppose they couldn't be accused of bribery.

I also know people who sign up to fill in surveys. You get paid in Amazon vouchers and similar (I think some pay cash but you have to accrue points to claim it). They ask all sorts of demograhic questions when you sign up, so they can be sure to get a representative sample for each survey, although I imagine it must be difficult for them to find people who are comfortably off and willing to sit for ages ticking online boxes for a couple of pounds. The ones I've known have been young mums and students, who have spare time and little money.

There was an interesting article in the new Statesman by Andrew MRr, I think it was him, suggesting that it was really only journalists and commentators like himself that were thinking Labour was on course to lose.