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US troops forced to act on the ground?

(375 Posts)
Wyllow3 Mon 04-May-26 08:33:40

Headlines in I player

"Iran threatens to attack US forces in Strait of Hormuz as Trump says military will help stranded ships"

"Iran threatens to attack US forces if they enter the Strait of Hormuz, after Donald Trump said the US would help stranded ships out of key waterway

Trump says the US military will start guiding stranded ships out of the strait from *Monday morning, Middle East time

Ie, today, now. Iran of course threatens to act against it.

"Some 20,000 seafarers and 2,000 ships have been unable to leave the strait since the US-Iran war began, the head of the International Maritime Organization said last week
But the Iranian military insists it controls the strait, and that it will attack "any foreign armed force" that tries to enter - "especially the aggressive US army"

Its on the Live Feed
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1wz2ld4535t

At the same time Trump insists "talks are going well".

But surely this means - US troops/ships on the ground which wont go down well at home? And possible escalation - again.
and knock on effects on our domestic front.

fancythat Mon 04-May-26 18:06:02

Strange that both sides say they have won.

Not strange at all.

Sadly, leaders with no humility, and those who want to appease the people in their Country, will always sell something as a win.

LemonJam Mon 04-May-26 18:11:47

David49

Im not sure what Trump is intending to do, if he is intending to allow all the ships trapped in the Gulf out, thats highly unlikely to work.
Are some ships trapped within the Straight of Hormuz by the US blockade?.

The world's shipping industry also is going on record wondering what Trump intends to do and how his plan will work and how it could be sustainable.

The general secretary of the seafarers union is on record questioning Trump's plan. The captain of an oil tanker currently stuck in the Strait (one of more than 850 vessels) Raman Kapor, told Radio 4 he" would not take the risk" of attempting to leave or put the lives of his crew at risk. The Chief safety and security officer, at the shipping industry group Bimco, Larsen, says "Without the consent of Iran to let commercial ships transit safely through the strait" and "without coordination with Iran's military, there is a risk of hostilities breaking out again if Project Freedom goes ahead".

Aside from the risk to lives, there is concern about lack of insurance cover (life insurance and vessel insurance) in the absence of a negotiated, exit plan agreed between Iran, US and Israel.

Cossy Mon 04-May-26 18:13:17

Oreo

Haha Allira it made me 😂 too. I am actually a high up in Centcom, but shhhhh!

🤣🤣🤣🤣

Macaydia Mon 04-May-26 18:15:33

"War" - Edwin Starr, 1970.

I wish the leaders would just have a game of chess instead.

Cossy Mon 04-May-26 18:22:58

Of course neither Trump nor Netanyahu are directly responsible for murdering 36,000 of their own citizens.

But, to be honest they are all “bad” people, as Mr Trump would put it and I’m not understanding why some of you appear to be supporting Trump!

AGAA4 Mon 04-May-26 20:14:57

LemonJam this appears to be another ill thought out plan by Trump. The Trump regime don't seem to be able to organise the proverbial in a brewery.
Project Freedom is very unlikely to work.

Cossy Mon 04-May-26 20:45:46

AGAA4

LemonJam this appears to be another ill thought out plan by Trump. The Trump regime don't seem to be able to organise the proverbial in a brewery.
Project Freedom is very unlikely to work.

“Project Freedom”, you couldn’t make it up!

Why doesn’t Trump consult his Peace Board?

You really couldn’t make it up!

Maremia Mon 04-May-26 21:07:03

Tonight it seems to be starting up again.

Maremia Mon 04-May-26 21:13:32

At the moment, who has control of the Strait?
If it is Iran, the cards they do have, appear to be Aces.
Not sure who is best qualified to end this, but I don't think it is Trump.

valdali Mon 04-May-26 22:32:26

Oreo

Trump is saying that the US has won, and of course that will be true if the peace deal satisfies the UN and Israel.

If the peace deal has to satisfy Israel, I don't see that happening in the near future.They may accept terms, but Israel won't be satisfied as long as there's a state called Iran left on the world map.

Chocolatelovinggran Tue 05-May-26 06:58:03

I fear that you are correct, valdali, which bodes ill for any attempts at de-escalation.

AGAA4 Tue 05-May-26 08:00:02

The US claim that they have guided two ships through the Strait of Hormuz. There are hundreds of ships stranded. Iran only have to hit one ship and no more ships would be willing to take the chance.
The only way to open the Strait is to have a peace agreement. Trickling ships through one by one will not work and is dangerous.
Iran have hit an oil depot in UAE which was sending oil around the strait so that is now out of action.
Trump saying Iran have nothing to fight with is just ridiculous.

Whitewavemark2 Tue 05-May-26 08:11:27

Not being clear what the original aims of the war by USA and Israel, is going to make it impossible to know if they have achieved their aims and thus claim a victory.

Iran just to survive can claim a victory as it didnt start this ridiculousness.

No ship will be able to move whilst this blockade continues.

They will not be insured. The owners cannot take responsibility for the ships crew’s lives. Iran has already hit a couple of ships - crippling them. It only takes one to prove that trying to break the blockade is foolish and life threatening.

AGAA4 Tue 05-May-26 08:17:20

Trump is full of his usual bluster. If a US ship is hit he will blow Iran off the face of the earth.
We've heard all this drama before Mr Trump.

Casdon Tue 05-May-26 08:21:19

What Iran has said this morning is correct, there is no military solution, there never was. If I owned an oil tanker I would not risk millions of pounds, not to mention the potential oil spillage, by making an unsafe passage..

Whitewavemark2 Tue 05-May-26 08:23:00

Casdon

What Iran has said this morning is correct, there is no military solution, there never was. If I owned an oil tanker I would not risk millions of pounds, not to mention the potential oil spillage, by making an unsafe passage..

Exactly

petra Tue 05-May-26 08:37:34

Whitewavemark2

Not being clear what the original aims of the war by USA and Israel, is going to make it impossible to know if they have achieved their aims and thus claim a victory.

Iran just to survive can claim a victory as it didnt start this ridiculousness.

No ship will be able to move whilst this blockade continues.

They will not be insured. The owners cannot take responsibility for the ships crew’s lives. Iran has already hit a couple of ships - crippling them. It only takes one to prove that trying to break the blockade is foolish and life threatening.

Poor Donny got a bit confused as to who was telling the truth Re were the Iranians very close to having a nuclear bomb or not.
One source told him they were 35 years away. Donny chose not to believe that. Bad choice Donny, unless you trade in oil like his trained mouthpiece Hegseth.

fancythat Tue 05-May-26 08:37:42

I have got to the wait and see stage.
With Trump.

And with Reform.

Farage said right at the beginning of all this, that Trump cannot be predicted?
[I went to google that but couldnt find it. Some things have been removed I think].

fancythat Tue 05-May-26 08:39:46

Maremia

At the moment, who has control of the Strait?
If it is Iran, the cards they do have, appear to be Aces.
Not sure who is best qualified to end this, but I don't think it is Trump.

Iran has control of the Strait.

Not sure it has control over a lot of other things.
Trump could blow things up. Not totally convinced he will.

Maremia Tue 05-May-26 08:42:19

Must be getting desperate for the thousands of crew members trapped in this 'video game'.

Wyllow3 Tue 05-May-26 09:53:45

Useful and relevant comments today.

1. From a representative of the tanker industry

“The news that shipping company Maersk got one of its vessels through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday is only "a drop in the ocean" when it comes to easing the blockage, one trade association says.

Tim Wilkins, managing director at Intertanko, a trade body representing independent tanker owners and operators, tells BBC Radio 4’s Today programme it was "one vessel that was closely escorted under certain very tight circumstances".

For the rest of the ships still stuck, "it's not going to dramatically change anything

Wilkins adds: "There is no structured convoy or coordination mechanism in place. So our members are simply asking the basic questions, who initiates these transits?

"Who communicates with the authorities on behalf of the vessel? And indeed, a critical one, what is the fallback if a vessel is challenged by Iranian forces during the transit

"These are the critical questions that the owners are asking and conferring with their crew on board their vessels."

2. From UK security advisor

“Lord Ricketts tells BBC Breakfast he is doubtful over how successful the US's plan to escort commercial ships through the waterway will be given there are "hundreds" stranded and, before the war, dozens passed every day.

They can't possibly escort every single ship," he says, adding it will only take one or two being hit for the shipping industry to ‘lose all confidence in the possibility of safe passage

He says "the only way" to secure reliable passage is through an agreement with Iran.”

BBC News feed as it happens
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1wz2ld4535t

LemonJam Tue 05-May-26 11:25:20

Willow3- you have clearly set out the problem.

There are over 850 vessels currently stuck in the strait. Lod Rickett is right, it is unrealistic and unsustainable for the US to escort vessels one by one through the strait ad infinitum. Plus not all those 850+ vessel captains will want to take risk of loss of life or vessel/load.

AGAA4 Tue 05-May-26 12:00:02

Trump's assertion that Iran have nothing to fight with is reckless at best. It's putting his own people in danger.
Iran retains a large number of drones and missiles and their navy has missiles that could do serious damage to a US ship.
This ceasefire is hanging by a thread now.

Cossy Tue 05-May-26 12:10:32

LemonJam

Willow3- you have clearly set out the problem.

There are over 850 vessels currently stuck in the strait. Lod Rickett is right, it is unrealistic and unsustainable for the US to escort vessels one by one through the strait ad infinitum. Plus not all those 850+ vessel captains will want to take risk of loss of life or vessel/load.

So one a day, 850 days? Cannot see the issue grin

On a serious note, what about passengers, crew and cargo?

Limited food, limited fresh water, little ventilation? How on earth is this going to work?

petra Tue 05-May-26 12:14:12

fancythat

I have got to the wait and see stage.
With Trump.

And with Reform.

Farage said right at the beginning of all this, that Trump cannot be predicted?
[I went to google that but couldnt find it. Some things have been removed I think].

Farage certainly likes to state the obvious. I’m sure nobody else has noticed that Trump is unpredictable 🤦🏼‍♀️