keepingquiet
This isn't a 'normal' by-election though is it? Even if it takes place.
Burnham has to hand in his resignation as Mayor first of all.
I new campaign has to be held for the new Major- so yes the two things could go side by side- that would be interesting in itself!
Say Burnham does get elected as MP, as someone mentioned above, that doesn't mean he will be PM!
First, Starmer would have to resign- then there would have to be a leadership election. There is no way Burnham could become PM without this happening.
All this is hot air and candyfloss...
There is a lot of hot air I agree- but the end result will not be candy floss. It will definitively go one way or another.
The Makerfield by election will definitely take place as the incumbent MP has resigned. It is likely to take place on Thursday 18th June or if not then, likely the following Thursday.
Yes, it's an unusual by election because of the circumstances. Everyone knows Labour performed badly in recent local council elections in the country generally, and badly in that local area. Everyone also knows that Burnham has ambition to lead the Labour Party. Local residents will also have experience of Burnham as their region's Mayor for the past 10 years.
So those voting will likely factor all that in- i.e. realistically would they prefer Reform or Labour to win the next GE. Plus will Burnham serve us locally as our MP.
Burnham now needs to be selected as the local Labour candidate in the coming days but it is highly improbable that he won't be selected. The other parties also will currently be going through their processes to nominate their candidate to represent their party. The Greens have said it will be left to decide locally. I have no idea what the Reform process is- most likely Farage will decide?
Then all the candidates start campaigning, both on local issues- but in these circumstances on some of the bigger party issues also most likely. There will be a lot of press attention no doubt.
If Burnham wins he will be sending a clear message to his fellow MPs, Labour Party members, Starmer and the Union leaders (who predominantly fund the Labour Party) that he can withstand Reform and Green Party ascendency and thus Starmer's position weakens further. The union leaders no doubt will start bending Starmer's ears (perhaps to stand down) as union leaders' confidence in Starmer as PM has for the most part nose-dived. I would guess that the Unions make their favourable views regarding Burnham's win known publicly ( again undermining Starmer's position) and maybe even go as far as to publicly support Burnham in a leadership challenge.
After all, some of the unions, following the poor local by election results last week, have polled their members whether to dis- affiliate from the Labour Party. The Labour Party needs the Union's funding streams so needs to do something to stop haemorrhaging Union Leader's support.
If Burnham loses, all bets are off. He is taking a huge risk/ do or die decision, in terms of his ambition to get back to Westminster and in terms of his ambition to be PM. His position is severely weakened if he fails to win the by election.
. Maybe it’s because people like me are saying they are either going to resign our membership or not vote for him. That would give other parties carte blanche to ignore the democratic process.