Climate Change

Flickety said: "That the world is going through a period of climate warming with more unstable weather and extreme weather events is also a fact."

I'd question that too.

From Nature, Sept 2012: www.nature.com/news/extreme-weather-1.11428
"one critic argued that, given the insufficient observational data and the coarse and mathematically far-from-perfect climate models used to generate attribution claims, they are unjustifiably speculative, basically unverifiable and better not made at all. And even if event attribution were reliable, another speaker added, the notion that it is useful for any section of society is unproven....Especially in poor countries, the losses arising from extreme weather have often as much to do with poverty, poor health and government corruption as with a change in climate."

Spiegel Online: Whether it’s hurricanes, thunderstorms or tornadoes, extreme weather is big business for insurers. Now German re-insurer Munich Re claims to have found proof that man-made climate change is causing more weather catastrophes in North America. Scientists are outraged....The main problem is the rarity of extreme events — and a lack of data about them. That alone makes it difficult to assess the situation. Vast amounts of data are required in order to determine whether an increasing greenhouse gas effect has already changed the frequency of extreme weather in past decades.....But scientists claim there is a lack of evidence. “The press release suggests that a ‘footprint’ of climate change has been found in loss data,” said environmental researcher Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado in Boulder. “But the report has no such claims.”
Scientists denounce dubious study

BTW, flickety, that is no criticism of you, only of the stupidity of mainstream media in publishing sensational bullshit .

bags talking of sensational bullshit, are you aware that much of the material out there is 'climate change denial' funded and published by the oil companies and the conservation far right lobby in U.S.A.? I'm surprised that intelligent people cannot see it for what it is and are drawn into believing this. I supposed its to do with the concept of denial.

Yes, I'm aware of that concept and how it is portrayed, jodi. Thankfully, I'm able to tell when something is real science or not, by publications' references and transparency, for instance.

Philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer argued that concepts are "mere abstractions from what is known through intuitive perception, and they have arisen from our arbitrarily thinking away or dropping of some qualities and our retention of others."
I am talking about facts bags.

BP, Greenpeace, and the Big Oil Jackpot

because I know y'all lurve such links

Obviously I've misjudged you bags and you can see the through the climate skeptics (horrible name but their choice I suppose) hogwash. Thank you for posting this.

Carboncareful, I feel like you. Far too many people are comfortable with what is happening in the world.
Before moving to Durham, we lived in York. Over ten years there were four 1 in 100 year events. Now that is mathematically impossible.
During those ten years the council put out plans to build new council offices in one of the areas that would flood. Fortunately there were enough sensible people who wrote in to object and the council shelved these plans.
The floods in York were hardly on the news this year, there were so many others. There are two rivers that converge in York, the Ouse and the Foss. Normally the Ouse floods and the Foss is okay because it has a flood barrier.
It did not work this year, just like it did not in 2000.

I think this government should be held responsible for all the flooding that occurred because it cancelled the financing of flood barriers in places like Morpeth.

Why are people surprised when flood plains flood?

We have the technological and engineering knowhow to build effective flood barriers for towns that are built on flood plains. If we don't do that, the towns will sometimes flood. As you point out, jendurham, it was the local council's refusal to update flood barriers that is the problem, not the rain or the rivers.

By the way, a one in a hundred chance is only a probability. If weather events with that probability occur four times in a row, that's no more impossible than tossing a coin and getting four heads or four tails in a row. The questions to ask are things such as has the town expanded into higher risk flood areas (likely, at a guess), have flood defences been kept sufficiently up to date (unlikely, at a guess), do floods occur more often now than they did a hundred or two hundred or five hundred or a thousand years ago? If the answer to any of those questions (and more) give us pause to consider how we are managing a town built on a flood plain, then that's what we should do first before blaming climate change.

Floods on flood plains are actually beneficial for agriculture (think Nile, Egypt). If we are stupid enough to build on high risk areas without also building effective flood defences, we've only ourselves to blame when the inevitable happens.

River flood plains are called flood plains for a reason.

If we humans were not in the Vale of York, more of it would flood every year. We have plonked ourselves in the middle of something natural that happens whether we are there or not. If we don't want natural events to affect us, we need to think more carefully and plan for the next similar, normal, natural events.

Heavy rain in northern England and flooding river plains is not weird. It's normal.

I just want to say that I have followed this thread and looked at all the links, then thought about what I have read – sometime carried on thinking about for quite a long time. I don't find it all boring, by the way. However, I feel my extreme ignorance of the subject prevents me from posting.

Please be warned and do NOT watch if you are sensitive on the issue of global warming. Also it runs for about 20 minutes.

www.ted.com/talks/james_hansen_why_i_must_speak_out_about_climate_change.html

I urge you all to watch Jodi's video. Especially Bags. Take particular notice of "amplifying feedbacks" which explain how the deniers have twisted the science. Its impossible to understand climate change if you do not understand feedbacks and tipping points.
I'm not even going to mention NY

www.ted.com/talks/james_hansen_why_i_must_speak_out_about_climate_change.html

Another human climate forcing: wind turbines and clouds

pardon?

The blue text links to a picture and short article about how wind turbines affect cloud formation, and therefore local weather close to them, and therefore, possibly, climate. New research going on all the time, you see, and new stuff being found out. Climate change, and the part we play in it is not simple.

carbon it's very obvious that some people are serial deniers. They have either been influenced by the propaganda put out by the oil companies or denying due to fear of the future. I can understand this.
The oil companies have huge resources at their command and a few tame scientists. The videos and websites are very cleverly targeted. Had I not had a degree in Environmental Studies I could easily have been taken in.
But even allowing for this there is the fear of the consequences facing our grandchildren if they are wrong. This is powerful.
It is almost impossible to change entrenched views.

There are problems with sustainable energy that have yet to be ironed out, but sometimes I wonder if people actually want these embryo technologies to fail. Why I cannot hazard a guess ????

The outside temperature today is 45C which is 113 Fahrenheit. In the last twelve years we have experienced above average temperatures. Last year it was a more normal summer with a few days up to 37 (100F) and was mostly pleasant. When the temperaturesa are extremely high it reminds me that we are probably past the tipping point. I found this article in the SMH this morning very interesting. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/where-even-the-earth-is-melting-20121127-2a5tp.html

Oops www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/where-even-the-earth-is-melting-20121127-2a5tp.html.

Hi Faye that sounds uncomfortable! Is it dry or humid heat where you are?
My little brood do not enjoy the humidity of NSW - they are going back to low humidity Perth in a few weeks, where housing cheaper!
I have experienced the summer heat in Perth - you can't really go out in the day, unless it is in an airconditioned car to the mall.
I was shocked that lots of Australians have no air-conditioning.

And yes the Arctic is melting fast, and he permafrost stuff is scary. One of the great unknowns.

It is a very dry heat and usually gets Adelaide weather a day later but a bit hotter. Perth is a bit milder in winter and summer than Adelaide. It is interesting if you build a house in an environmentally friendly way they can be really cool in summer and warm in winter without the need for airconditioning, maybe a bit of heating though. The pioneers knew what they were doing, they originally built their houses with verandahs to keep out the hot summer sun.

It is scary, I can guess what is going to happen.

Actually, Arctic ice is refreezing at the moment, as you know. Last winter it reached the thirty year average that is supposed to be 'normal' (NB thirty years is not much). arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png

And here is an article to make you think. It is about global energy poverty.

Verandahs are certainly a good 'shading' feature Faye - but corrugated iron roofs?
Things like loft insulation will/would help to keep houses cool in summer - particularly important when so many houses are single storey. Not sure if it is at all common over there though. It is very common here as it is the cheapest and easiest way to save heat and keep the house more cosy.
One of the saving graces of UK housing is that we have long built and still often build terraces and semi detached housing - much more energy efficient because there is so much less surface area. I know they is viewed as an abomination in Australia and NZ and are rarely seen. Everyone wants their unique, detached property.