Gov. Uk tables of CV 19 - not all of them are frightening!!!

I’m sorry if anyone was upset by my bubble comment alegrias but I wasn’t shooting Franbern down in flames as you put it.
I was merely contributing to the discussion and I stand by my opinion that the fact that there are fewer hospital admissions and fewer deaths doesn’t indicate to me that the pandemic is over or even on the way out.
The only good news is that better treatment is available.
You may think that it’s good that mainly young people are getting it now, but as others have said, some will die and some will suffer long-term effects.
The main reason that older people haven’t overwhelmed the NHS and aren’t contracting the virus in larger numbers now, is that they have generally been more cautious than younger people about observing lockdown guidance, and perhaps have more choice about how much they can isolate themselves.

New daily active cases more than doubled last week. How anyone can be any less than alarmed by that surprises me.

Who said the pandemic is on the way out? That’s not a conclusion to be drawn from what I said. It would be silly to think that. I agreed with Franbern that fewer people in hospital is a good thing. Yes, it’s probably going to get worse again. Yes, fewer people died last week than before. Its possible for both things to be true.

Some of you may be interested in the (very long) twitter thread about the possibility of reinfection.

It also reiterates that research is finding that immunity declines greatly after 3 months. which is not promising for vaccine development.

While I appreciate that people want to get back to life as 'normal' as possible I think that we have to be very cautious with this disease. It is not flu.

There is also the very real prospect of debilitating long term damage.

twitter.com/PRussW1/status/1286475600300040192

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

I’ve just come across this. It looks at all the recent papers on Covid and is worth looking at.

I’m believe that as age increases the severity of virus infection increases with age and underlying conditions. The OP, points out that all we see is doom and gloom although as others have said, there are new ways of more successfully treating the virus.

Time will tell. The hospital admissions in the next 2 weeks (after this rise in infections) will be interesting to see.

MaizieD I'm going to jump on something you said because it proves my point!

It also reiterates that research is finding that immunity declines greatly after 3 months. which is not promising for vaccine development.

The last bit sows doubt about whether an effective vaccine can be produced if natural immunity declines. That's not the case and an off hand remark can cause unnecessary worry.

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html

I listened to a Professor of Virology speak a few days ago. He said flu and virus strains mutate. Where a virus is concerned it can often mutate into a weaker form and he thinks this is why the 'R' number is rising but deaths are not keeping pace with that. He also said that in the time from lockdown in March until now in the region of 44,000 people had died from Covid-19 but in that same timeframe 51,000 people had died from smoking related illnesses. Puts it in perspective.

Monica you are very lucky,my family have known 12 people who died from Covid,My son 's two friends lost their mums right at the start of lockdown.Ill in the morning dead by t-time.My friends 34 year old son was the same ..no underlying issues .We are and have been very careful.My OH does supermarket shopping just before the shop closes so its quiet and we get as much as we can online.We 've been out for dinner twice once in July for our 45th anniversary and yesterday both times to retaurants owned by family friends who we know will follow guidlines carefully .We really dont want to see deaths rise here again .We had over 6 weeks without any then two last week.

Like Jane10 said, we won't know for at least two weeks and a bit more if the rise in positive tests results in a rise in hospital admissions.

Or if it is increased testing or increased cases.

Too soon for any conclusions one way or the other.

Illte

Like Jane10 said, we won't know for at least two weeks and a bit more if the rise in positive tests results in a rise in hospital admissions.

Or if it is increased testing or increased cases.

Too soon for any conclusions one way or the other.

Well said! Apparently, there was a similar pattern in France and Spain before hospital admissions started rising again. Fingers crossed yesterday was just a blip, but we can't let our guard down yet.

Sarnia

I listened to a Professor of Virology speak a few days ago. He said flu and virus strains mutate. Where a virus is concerned it can often mutate into a weaker form and he thinks this is why the 'R' number is rising but deaths are not keeping pace with that. He also said that in the time from lockdown in March until now in the region of 44,000 people had died from Covid-19 but in that same timeframe 51,000 people had died from smoking related illnesses. Puts it in perspective.

But people choose to smoke. These are additional deaths. I don't suppose anybody chose to be infected.

Alegrias

MaizieD I'm going to jump on something you said because it proves my point!

It also reiterates that research is finding that immunity declines greatly after 3 months. which is not promising for vaccine development.

The last bit sows doubt about whether an effective vaccine can be produced if natural immunity declines. That's not the case and an off hand remark can cause unnecessary worry.

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html

Thanks for posting that link Alegrias. It confirmed what I already thought .

Firstly, that having been infected naturally doesn't automatically confer lifelong immunity.

Secondly, a vaccine (which would probably be more effective than a previous infection) might not provide lifelong protection either.

Thanks growstuff, but those are rather "glass half empty" points that we could draw from the article.

But the "glass half full" ones are that waning natural immunity does not mean that a vaccine will not work, and that a vaccine might be like the flu vaccine in that we might need it every year. I could live with that.

Alegrias I was very pleased to read your 'glass half full' posts. It made a pleasant change from the nonstop doom and gloom. Looking at Covid in perspective is important. How many heart and cancer deaths will be caused indirectly due to cancelled and postponed assessment and treatment.

Alegrias

Thanks growstuff, but those are rather "glass half empty" points that we could draw from the article.

But the "glass half full" ones are that waning natural immunity does not mean that a vaccine will not work, and that a vaccine might be like the flu vaccine in that we might need it every year. I could live with that.

I didn't say that a vaccine wouldn't work. I wrote that a vaccine might not provide lifelong immunity - which is true.

Yep, and I didn't argue with you growsnet. But this is exactly my point!

The conclusions you draw are indeed things that can be deduced from the article. But simply saying that natural infection doesn't make you immune and that a vaccine won't work for ever, are only part of the story.

The conclusions that the authors of the article come to are that waning natural immunity does not mean that a vaccine will not work, and that we might need regular vaccinations.

Both these points lead on from from what you say, but leaving this part unsaid changes the meaning and intention of the article.

growstuff not growsnet! Sorry growstuff!!

Maybe I'm missing something. As far as I'm concerned it's not a reason for doom and gloom nor for celebration. It's just factual. The big unknown is how long it will be before there is an effective vaccine. As far as I can work out, it might be some time next year, but not sooner. Whenever it is, it's too far in the future to affect what should be happening now.

This is turning into a conversation for just us growstuff

This thread started with someone being positive and soon became negative; lots of "ah but...."

I shared an article that basically said "Guess what - good news! Waning immunity doesn't mean that vaccines won't work!" and your takeaways from it were that natural infection doesn't make you immune and that vaccines won't last. Well, that's not very cheerful, is it? That's not the point of the article!

I guess I'm just a bit fed up with always looking for the dark side when there is a bright side, and you don't have to go far to find it.

You're entitled to your views. I'm not frightened, I'm not full of doom and gloom. I just want facts.

Bye!

We go for the flu jap every year, maybe in years to come it will include something against Covid 19.

re vaccines, good progress is being made on vaccines to help with disease effects but there is no preventative vaccine on the horizon. I have this on good authority

I also have information that the virus is mutating to a weaker form.

Do you have a link to information that the virus is mutating to a weaker form?

The scientific information I've seen says it's mutating, but very little and I haven't seen any evidence it's becoming less virulent.

What vaccines are there which help with the effects? I didn't realise such vaccines existed.

I find it rather irritating that it’s assumed that, because I’m taking Covid very seriously and am very concerned about the next few months I’m imprisoning myself in my home wailing and moaning and having a miserable time. Within the safeguards of me shielding myself as much as possible I’m having quite pleasant time and am feeling quite empowered and positive most of the time. I do get very angry at people not taking it seriously though.