Where are Chris Whitty and Patrick Valance??? Are they locked away at the Tower of London under Boris' orders?...

Thanks for taking the time to consider my points Alegrias. Though numbers of cases on graphs are shown to be flatlining, I’m not completely convinced this is an accurate reflection.
Current practice to only acknowledge new infections, particularly when Omicron is highly contagious and some people are being reinfected, is not sound mathematically. How can we trust how many cases there are when only a sub section of them are presently being shown on the graphs? Yes, this will alter from tomorrow.
Agreed that cases are more likely to be fewer than real case numbers; it would be interesting to compare ONS findings for January 2021 and this month and see how they stack up against government statistics for those periods. I am happy to be corrected on this.
The observations of LovelyLady, GNers, practice nurses and myself signal what is happening in the community. They are based upon personal experience and do not appear to be borne out in published graphs. Infected school children may in turn spread the infection to the adults with whom they live and mix.
I am not suspicious, nor am I anti-science. As I explained in my previous post, I would be further convinced if the figures were more comprehensive and more precise.
We are right to discuss; my thoughts were given to exchange ideas - no more than that; I sincerely hope that you are correct for everyone’s sake.
It is not my intention to cause anyone on GN alarm or to present the idea that things are worse than they are. I want to trust the maths.
Right then (it sounds as if sleeves need to be rolled up when saying this), I’ve said my piece.

Right then Sorry, my first line did sound confrontational!

We conflate two things, don't we? There is every chance that cases are higher than the official figures say. The re-infections are not currently being measured and to a smaller extent, people aren't always reporting LFTs. The re-infections will be included from tomorrow so we'll see what happens. Zoe reckons cases are going up, but it also says that cases in my area are about 1.5 times as high as they have ever been in the whole pandemic; I don't know anybody at the moment who is positive.

Of course it doesn't matter if I know anybody positive or not, because the number of people I know, or come into contact with, is minuscule compared to the whole population. Which brings me on to the other part of the discussion.

It really doesn't matter how many people each of us knows who are positive, that doesn't reflect whether cases are rising or not. I knew several people who were positive at the start of the year, but none now, but I'm not here trumpeting how cases are coming down, based on my individual experience. Personal experience does not translate into universal metrics. Infected children may infect adults; but unless that happens on a large scale it doesn't mean cases are going up, right now, this minute.

And my biggest issue, I suppose, is with the complete misinterpretation of numbers we've seen on this thread; cases are going up in my town, so they must be going up everywhere or the TV told me cases have gone up 3 days in a row and I don't understand maths so cases are going up universally! Well reported cases have gone down 3 days in a row, but I haven't seen anybody here celebrating because cases are going down.

Don't get me wrong; I think Johnson and his crew would do anything to curry favour with the population and save their own skins, but at some point restrictions have to be eased and cases will go up. But even if cases go up, if serious illness or worse is now much less of a threat, there is no point is worrying about increased cases and using that as a reason not to open up. Denmark are opening up and their case number is much higher than ours. France are starting to ease restrictions even though their case load is twice as high as ours has ever been. This is not England going it alone and flying in the face of science. This is how we live now. There will be more cases. But they may not impact our lives like they have been doing.

I’m pleased that reinfections are being included from tomorrow. Purely anecdotal observations seem to suggest that quite a lot people are being reinfected. We will have a better idea when these infections are counted too.

Hi
I was joking about “Right then” or I wouldn’t have mentioned it and included the comment. ? I like your approach - no nonsense - which is why I’ve engaged.
Yes, we’ll see what happens from tomorrow. In Zoe and the ONS I have more belief than the current subset. A more accurate idea of the probability of contracting the infection in a life with fewer restrictions would help to inform the choices I make.
Whilst recognising that for most people there is less ‘impact’ and ‘threat’ than formerly, it is fundamental that the statistics and information imparted can be trusted.
It’s an issue of confidence on very many levels, for me starting with the science. I can spring board from there.

I was going to wait a decent amount of time before answering but I have to go and make lunch, so I'll answer right now

I do have a problem with Zoe in that it's self-selecting and their algorithm is a bit mysterious, but they do have a good track record of identifying trends early.

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Algorithms are not my department but the track record bodes well. As you say, we’ll see.
Enjoy your lunch.

Nannagarra - I can't see much difference after yesterday's figures. What's your take?