It's not all over for the LibDems

love0c

I think it is because people could not bring themselves to vote for the Cons again. But also because they could not bring themselves to vote for Lab either. We desperately need another new party. The lot we have all need burying.

It's called 'tactical voting'. You vote for the 'progressive' (i.e centre - centre leftish- left) candidate most likely to win the seat. Which was the Lib Dems in this case. Even if the Labour party doesn't want to join a 'progressive alliance', it seems that its voters do.

It is to be hoped that the Lib Des and Greens return the compliment at Batley & Spen.

I'm delighted by this result, BTW.

love0c

I think it is because people could not bring themselves to vote for the Cons again. But also because they could not bring themselves to vote for Lab either. We desperately need another new party. The lot we have all need burying.

There were 8 parties standing in the by-election. Its not like there was a 2-way choice.

Richard Murphy - a friend canvassing in Amersham said that the returns showed that almost no one under 70 voted Tory.

I think that is an important thing to note.

As he rather gruesomely predicted.

The demise of the right (and I would add Brexit) will proceed one funeral at a time

That may be the case. Will probably take about 20 years but hey ho.

The courage to admit they vote conservative may only reside in the elderly, but the conservatives would not be in power if the majority of their voters were not well under that age.

Since every person gets older by the nano-second, every day more people reach 70 and gain the courage to admit to the party they support.

I live in a constituency where the average age of the inhabitants is below the national average and we have a conservative mp with a comfortable majority.

monica the complete opposite in my constituency. We have two universities plus College of Art so our town is very young. Green constituency and Labour in the surrounding constituency, until you begin to go into the surrounding countryside. Even here though the population is tending to reject the Tories. Degree level and remain voters are largely the reason.

I'm also guessing from what you have written about where you live that the average income/wealth is higher than the national average too.

Every single poll has shown that the cut-off age for voting is around 45 with older voters tending to vote Conservative and younger ones tending to vote Labour. (Please note the word tending.)

love0c

I think it is because people could not bring themselves to vote for the Cons again. But also because they could not bring themselves to vote for Lab either. We desperately need another new party. The lot we have all need burying.

If you feel we need another party what do you not like about the LibDems? I'm really interested and so, I expect, would they be.

I live in an "old" constituency. The demographic profile is like an hour glass. There are young people up to 18, who then leave to go to higher education. They can't afford to live here after they qualify, but we then have people in their 40s and older, who come her for the good state schools for their children. The over 60s have mainly lived in the area all their lives and there are far more of them than there are younger people. The constituency is rock solid Tory.

One outcome of the result is that it has given LibDem canvassers grounds for optimism. Nobody seriously believed that the LibDems would win Chesham and Amersham, but at least 50 seats are now looking seriously vulnerable. If there were the same swing nationally in a GE (there won't be), the LibDems could win over 200 seats.

Isn't that a matter of personal choice and not something that anyone else can tell us to do with our vote?

Oh the irony!

The problem with the Lib Dems and to a certain extent the Labour Party is that they both had charismatic leaders with a fatal flaw, but for many people they are the leader that is most remembered. So Nick Clegg for LDs and Blair for LP. After them come an assorted range of forgettable people who never really made their mark. So individual consituencies may change if a particularly good candidate emerges and their are local issues to stand on. The parties however remain in he same quandary who on earth is going to lead them to any sort of victory?

My constituency is populated primarily by young clever scientists and technologists working in the many science parks and world class research establishments and living in the detached houses on all the new estates being built. There are also a lot of poorly paid jobs in the many warehouses in the area whose employees mainly live in the local town, which is reckoned one of the worst places to live in England. Despite that the Conservative vote has been consistently between 50-55% of the electorate for over 20 years and Lib Dems and Labour take it in turns to be second, although overall Lib Dems are in ascendant and the Labour vote is falling.

Reports of the demise of the Conservative party are definitely premature.

The Tories are really becoming the UKIP party for the English working class and rural oldies. They aren't popular in Scotland, NI or Wales or big cities. I live in an expensive London borough, with a lot of gentrification by young professionals, Labour and Green vote pretty solid, even in last election.

and young bright STEM graduates

Can't check your assertions M0nica as we don't know what constituency you are in. I do wonder what the proportion of young bright STEM graduates to people in poorly paid jobs is, though. Sounds like a University area? Lots of older University Dons perhaps?

almost no one under 70 voted Tory. Also worth repeating here that nobody born this century voted for Brexit.

The planning issue is being talked about as being one of the major factors for people's vote against the Tories. Put simply, residents views are being over ridden by developers, many of whom are major Tory party donors. Brown envelope Jenrick is a case in point.

Interestingly the Lib Dem candidate got 56.7% of the vote compared with the Tories last time with 55/4% .

I'd like to know how the corruption and chronyism of the current govt influenced the vote in favour of the LibDems.

Wantage

M0nica

Wantage

Going for a haircut. Will look later

Huge respect and admiration for Dominic Grieve- Not seen/heard what he said today yet, looking forward to access.

I do think the penny is dropping, of the realities of the ridiculous, undemocratic, First Past the Post system (including the manipulation past and recent- to favour a Tory vote). This win and hopefully a few more later- confirming that to beat the Tories, once and for all (at least those ERG extremists) - there is a need for clever alliances to be made, Constituency by Constituency, as well as at National level. The FPP system demands this. There are extremely good reasons why the Tories, with the help of all their mates in the UK Press - are hell-bent on discrediting Labour. With Corbyn they picked on antisemitism. With Starmer 'too posh to be working class'.

So many people, slowly but surely, can see right through this now, and the tactics used. Combined with this Brexit disaster and Covid mess - the penny is dropping.

And same as in those penny machines in Skeggy, when they finally fall, it will be big and fast. Watch this space.

Also worth repeating here that nobody born this century voted for Brexit
given that they would only have been 16 at the oldest , is that entirely surprising? .

But now they are at least 20, so reaping the"benefits", and how many Brexit voters have died since 2016?

Labour only got 622 votes, their lowest ever in a by-election, not Mr.Starmer’s finest hour.