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Antibody test shows that 50 - 80% more people have had C19 than was thought (US)

(34 Posts)
GagaJo Sat 18-Apr-20 13:52:29

Interesting. IF it is true and IF it applied here, it means the death rate for C19 is actually only 0.12-0.2%.

M0nica Sat 18-Apr-20 14:25:17

This is interesting research, as much as anything, because of all the caveats attached to it. I like to see those on this kind of research.

What we need now is for it to be replicated elsewhere and research to show if having the virus makes you immune it. Current, mainly anecdotal reports, suggest that is may not always happen - and that would be a problem.

growstuff Sat 18-Apr-20 14:32:19

My daughter's partner, who's a biochemist, is currently working for a company which is researching whether there's a genetic or biochemical connection to the severity of the disease. It's still a mystery why some people only have a mild version. If they can discover something, it will be a breakthrough because it would mean that shielding (and eventually vaccines) can be better targeted.

Jane10 Sat 18-Apr-20 14:36:57

Good luck to your daughter's partner
growstuff- we need all the dedicated researchers and scientists to crack this!

growstuff Sat 18-Apr-20 14:41:33

Are you sure about the death rate Gagajo?

There have been 2,275,782 reported cases in the US. A 50% increase is an additional 1,137,891 ie a total of 3,413,673.

There have been 156,104 reported deaths in the US. I'm pretty sure that's 4.57% of reported cases.

growstuff Sat 18-Apr-20 14:44:50

Just read the article. It says "50 to 85 times more common" rather than "50-80% more people", which is different.

GagaJo Sat 18-Apr-20 14:50:26

I'm not sure about anything Growstuff. I just got that out of the article AND misquoted, as you show!

I was always useless at Maths AND Science. Sorry!

GagaJo Sat 18-Apr-20 14:51:03

My brain went fizzy just trying to follow what you wrote!

growstuff Sat 18-Apr-20 14:55:00

Just done some more sums. If 81,000 people in Santa Clara County have been infected out of total population of 1,928,000, that's still only 4.2%, which is a long way from herd immunity.

growstuff Sat 18-Apr-20 14:56:21

There's an awful lot of pressure from the US alt-right to lift restrictions and persuade people that it's not so bad as they think.

AGAA4 Sat 18-Apr-20 14:57:17

GagaJo. I think there are so many numbers and graphs and charts on the go now that it certainly makes my brain hurt at times!

M0nica Sat 18-Apr-20 16:02:03

growstuff The research group are not claiming anything about heard immunity. That conclusion has been reached by others, whoever they may be, they are not named.

It is interesting reading this thread, already people are taking the results of a small survey in one small place and applying it universally and drawing conclusions from it that are just not there.

This is what happens to so much scientific and other research these days, the research team publish a small note in a scientific journal hoping to attract more funding or encourage other teams to do the same research to see if they get the same results. The team are cautious and make no great claims for their research, but a journalist sees the report, knows the subject is of high interest at the moment, writes it up, speaks to a couple of people (Who?, he doesn't say). To attract attention he writes it up as being more than it is, and Yahoo picks it up and runs with it.

Gagajo has reported it, and with good reason, it is an interesting result. But now people on GN are ratchetting it up further, reading the research results, but not the caveats and assuming that the results are much more reliable than they really are and making all kinds of extrapolations from that.

All that has happened is that a reputable university did a small scale survey and got results they hadn't expected, but do not want to make any claims until others have replicated them and an expert in the field, not at that university, has peer reviewed them, that is studied everything from sampling methods, tests done, analysis to write up and agreed with them. In a case like this several peer reviewers would need to check it.

Sorry to be such a deaths head at the feast, but these results are neither a breakthrough, nor a guide to possible future action.

growstuff Sat 18-Apr-20 16:29:01

MOnica I agree with you. That's why I delved a bit deeper, to find out what the original research was actually claiming.

Callistemon Sat 18-Apr-20 16:56:19

growstuff I was reading about that research and I think that the results are going to be very interesting.

Gagajo is this just in the States?
I wasn't aware that there was a test which has been widely produced as yet that is reliable and laboratory-verified?

We have been warned that such tests may risk increasing infection rates if people think they are immune when they may not be.

Callistemon Sat 18-Apr-20 17:04:37

We already know that many more people have had this virus than the official figures from every country indicate.
We know this because some people have mild, negligible symptoms which go unreported and others may be asymptomatic.
Even some who may feel ill may not report in to their GP. COVID19 became notifiable here at the beginning of March but some people may have contracted it before then.

Until we have reliable, official antibody testing available we will not know.

Davidhs Sat 18-Apr-20 18:20:47

The official figures for deaths in the US is actually 40,000 just where the other figures come from is a mystery.
Are we going to get an antibody test, probably not a test that is reliable for Corona virus, because the virus behavior is unpredictable.

In another forum it was explained why a vaccine is doubtful, never mind being tested anytime soon. MERS and SARS were also Corona viruses, no vaccine was produced, both epidemics declined naturally because they were much less infectious than Covid 19
Worryingly no vaccine has ever been successful for Corona viruses in human or animal treatment, the common cold is a Corona virus they have searched in vain for decades for a cure.

I’m just repeating what seemed to be plausible explanation, we must really hope that it’s wrong, until then all we can do is treat the symptoms

growstuff Sun 19-Apr-20 02:25:49

I think an issue with SARS was that, while it was less infectious, it was also more deadly, so that it killed its hosts.

I agree with you that the best we can hope for is treating the symptoms, which is why it's so important that the NHS isn't overwhelmed and that its staff are protected.

Sussexborn Sun 19-Apr-20 02:53:30

Management in hospitals I’ve worked in and been a patient in is ramshackle, badly organised and a disgrace. Top people earning silly money with no particular skills either with people or finances. There need to be huge fundamental changes made and more effort to use money sensibly and effectively.

growstuff Sun 19-Apr-20 06:25:28

In my experience it's the front line admin staff who do an abysmal job. They're jobsworths, who don't seem to be the sharpest knives in the box and are incapable of using their brains and any common sense they have. Some of them could do with training in interpersonal skills too because they're just downright rude.

PS. I realise that's a huge generalisation, but has unfortunately been my experience. I stopped complaining to PALS about my experiences with some of these people because I don't think anything was ever done.

growstuff Sun 19-Apr-20 06:29:36

Management in hospitals hasn't caused a crisis in PPE - a shortage of PPE and the resources to buy equipment has.

The responsibility is the government's and nobody else's, however much the spin machine and PR tries to persuade people otherwise.

GagaJo Sun 19-Apr-20 08:19:55

Agree, Growstuff.

Gran52 Sun 19-Apr-20 08:26:06

Yes this is true.... coronavirus death figures have been vastly over calculated to spread panic in the general public. I work a hospital - wards are empty. Just look at what is happening .... we have given up just about all of our rights and freedom ... Nobody ever voted for this, not even public debate.... we now live in a police state dictatorship

GagaJo Sun 19-Apr-20 08:55:11

We did anyway Gran52. I said that on this site after the election results and was mocked.

Callistemon Sun 19-Apr-20 10:37:08

Any frontline, probably poorly paid, admin staff I have had to deal with at our local hospital have been wonderful (so far).

I had a hiccup once but that was due to an error by someone from the appointments department who contacted me by phone; since then a belt and braces approach seems to be the norm.

As for some of the more senior management, medical staff have reportedly found some of their decisions unfathomable and said that they managed perfectly well before these posts were created.

Callistemon Sun 19-Apr-20 10:42:28

I find your posts unfathomable too, Gran52

How can the number of deaths from this virus be over-calculated?

Are you a nurse, a doctor, admin, laboratory staff, porter, mortuary attendant, cleaner?
Perhaps a pathologist?

Perhaps you could share your inside knowledge of the true facts and figures so that we can assess for ourselves?