I predict another rise of covid

Belgium's death rates appear extremely high as compared to other European countries. Since Belgium apparently has an excellent health system and is a fairly economically stable country with a relatively small population, there has been speculation as to why their death rates are so different to other countries.

The BBC and many other news outlets have pointed to several issues that have a bearing on the seemingly unusually high death rates:

"Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases.

"According to Belgium's latest official figures, out of 7,703 deaths, 53% have been in care homes.

"Some 16% of deaths in care homes were tested positive for coronavirus. The rest are suspected.

"That means more than 3,500 deaths have been counted as caused by Covid-19, but not confirmed.

"Another factor is that many more people in Belgium have loved ones in care homes than elsewhere in Europe.

"Only the Netherlands and Luxembourg have a higher rate of care home occupancy, relative to their populations.

"There have been fewer deaths in the Netherlands, despite having a larger population. But unlike Belgium, the Netherlands does not count suspected Covid-19 deaths in care homes."

Meanwhile the UK is reporting "R rate in UK creeps up
The figure is now much closer to one - the point at which the virus starts spreading rapidly."

Thank you for the information eloethan.

It seems your husband is right Fennel.

Thanks for posting that eloethan. I read something similar about Belgium. If the UK counted deaths in the same way, our deaths would be even higher than the official statistic.

Thank you Eloethan

I have been puzzled by the figures for some time, the rate per million in countries where one would think that the healthcare system is excellent, compared to some countries where that may not be the case.

The figures are, in fact not very useful and tell us nothing much at all except that different countries have different methods of compiling their statistics.

Sorry. Belgium appears clearly the highest at 700 plus per million, so on this basis we appear to be about 4th.

Clearly countries count differently and these figures may only be an approximate, and ours clearly are because the true current figures are estimated to be over 40,000 deaths in UK, probably because of the slow start in getting to grips with the pandemic.

Figures may not be accurate but they give us an indication.

There are of course other deaths happening indirectly because of Coronovirus.

Yesterday was the first truly beautiful day- Traffic was crazy even in more rural places- Bars (pubs) were open, the customers were thigh to thigh sitting at cafe tables outdoors and not wearing masks- The parks were slammed- Store parking lots were full- But the park I usually go to was not full- Its an old orchard with ponds and paths and very little grass-

I drove for 2 hours checking things out- Not many people wearing masks- Here and there were groups sitting outdoors in their yards, in circles, 6 or more feet apart-

I truly feel for you, rosecarmel. Please keep yourself safe.

rosecarmel whatever state you live in, I hope you are able to get appropriate advice, which you will never get from Trump.

Please take the utmost care of yourself and those you care about. It looks like the USA will have the highest covid 19 death rate in the world so you are in danger. Please keep safe.

I listened to a Q&A from America the other night and it sounds as though the Navajo have been treated appallingly [or, what's more to the point, not being treated]. Having said that, the level of debate in the programme was far superior to anything I've heard here. It obviously wasn't on Fox news. Stay safe rosecarmel.

The entire Native American situation .. there's no words in the English language to accurately describe what's not happened for them ..

It appears quite likely that Belgium's death figures are over-inflated because they count all deaths in care homes as virus-related - and also they have far more elderly people residing in care homes than is the case in other European countries.

However, it has to be acknowledged that on the News tonight there was footage of many doctors and nurses turning their backs on their PM's car, partly because she has apparently authorised untrained people to be recruited to work as nurses. It may well be that the Belgian PM thought, to be as honest as possible, it was better to over estimate, rather than under estimate the danger of the virus and her strategy has backfired. I think it might also be relevant that Belgium was without a functioning government for 589 days and this must surely have affected short and long term decision making.

I expect several leaders will be heavily criticised by their populations because few have dealt with the situation particularly well. I do think, though, that our PM and his team have really outshone the rest in their propensity for ineffectiveness, indecisiveness, lack of urgency (despite the warnings), lack of clarity - and dishonesty. As an island surrounded by the sea and, unlike the rest of Europe, with no open land borders we were in a far better position to deal with the virus but we squandered that advantage in so many ways - including allowing mass gatherings like the Cheltenham Festival to continue and letting thousands of people flying in from abroad leave the airport without even their temperature being taken and destination address being recorded, or steps taken to to ensure they self-isolated for 14 days. Just as importantly, we had far more notice of the virus than other countries and had more time to put at least some preparations in hand.

The Washington Post reported:

"By the Economist’s analysis, Britain was the worst-hit of the countries it examined, as measured by excess deaths compared to overall population. Spain was second; with Belgium a close third. The newsweekly did not calculate excess death figures for the United States, but estimated that New York City’s excess death rate was far ahead that of Britain. Dense cities have often been hit especially hard."

I am taking part in the Kings College app. Which records the level of covid throughout the entire U.K. and region by region.

Whilst we were in lockdown it was going down day by day very satisfactorily.

It levelled off about 10 days ago and there is a up turn Over the past few days.

We are easing the restrictions too early

Another country not doing so well is Ireland (Eire).
Cases per million 4908.
Deaths " " 314 - lower than others.
Perhaps anothe example of a different way of counting?

WWM2: several of my neighbours have visitors today. It’s as if lockdown is a thing of the past. I hope I’m wrong about the R rate shooting up over the next couple of weeks but I fear the worst. I keep thinking of the quote ‘100 deaths are a tragedy but 1,000 are a statistic’.

I see there has been an up tick in London as we expected.

Yesterday Johnson in an effort to “move on” attempted to distract the British public by measures that will begin to release lockdown, including going against scientific advise over schools etc.

The test and trace is not ready and without that we are working blind.

This from media

Carole Cadwalladr
@carolecadwalla
Today marks another pivotal day in this crisis. We’ve been here before. That sinking dread. The certain knowledge that the govt is fucking up in real time. That it will not be told. That people will die as a result. Mark the date. Because this day will come back to haunt us

I feel there will be another spike. It's our responsibility to be vigilent and keep a distance not the government, do you want police walking up and down streets checking up on everyone. We know the risks I just feel sorry for all essential workers who keep going whilst idiots interpret the guidelines as they wish. If you socially distanced you wouldn't be at risk from one of these idiots. Stay safe and keep your distance, not too difficult to understand is it?

Since when is it acceptable to use the F word to make a point Carole? It's up to her if she doesn't keep to the clear guidelines.

You are doing exactly what Cummings wants sparkling you are blaming the public, when the blame can only be laid at the governments handling.

We’ve had the highest death level - think of that!! That has nothing to do with individual people. People in the U.K. are no different to anyone else in Europe. There are compliant folk and non-compliant folk everywhere.

This was entirely down to governmental strategy as it still is.

Yesterday (the dead cat offering) Cummings wheeled Johnson on to make a grand announcement about easing lockdown..

Mark that date 28th.

The date that government told us that “Yes, the deaths are sad and everything, but we must move on” Whateley on QT. The 60000 dead can’t move on.

That was the day that Cummings was found guilty of a breach of lockdown rules.

You can’t ask for compliance and civic duty whilst not doing so yourself.

As someone said.

The 28th will come back to haunt us.

I predict there will be more people with mental health problems. Some people have become obsessive and bitter because they can't control what is happening its very sad.

You are right of course firecracker that is why people are so appalled at what has happened this week. People now understand how little control they have over the terrible decisions that have been made.

I disagree.

None of the people who are disgusted with johnson have mentioned their mental health, unlike all the references to it during the first few weeks of lockdown.

Yes Firecracker- no one knows what trying times folks have been through in the last six months and how their mental health has been affected. This debacle won’t have helped any of us will it?

I must admit I'm at a loss to understand how the Cummings debacle (as you call it) will have affected anybody with genuine mental health problems - and, yes, I do know what I'm talking about.

It has made many people genuinely angry and frustrated that somebody has got away with arrogantly behaving in a certain way and has lied, despite being somebody who wrote the rules, while they are powerless. That's not being obsessive and bitter. Anger in those circumstances is a perfectly normal reaction.

Righteous anger is fine.
Expressing it is good for mental health.

Are you concerned about the physical health of those who will undoubtedly be infected as lockdown is lifted without adequate safeguards?