I predict another rise of covid

From the Express, 23rd March.

Unfortunately, I can't find any graphs for the daily televised updates from back then, but have found this which mentions the series of peaks that some of us remember being talked about in those briefings:

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1258250/coronavirus-uk-plan-bbc-news-boris-johnson-britain-lockdown-covid-19-death-toll-latest

^Coronavirus plan: Graph outlining exact reason behind Boris Johnson's crackdown^

[...] BBC's science correspondent explained: "The scientists are trying to prevent one huge peak of cases of COVID-19 which would overwhelm NHS ICUs (intensive care unit).

"Instead there would be a series of smaller peaks spread out throughout a year.

"To achieve this they would suppress and then release the virus by turning the social distancing measures on and off like a tap to control the flow of patients into intensive care.

"They predicted a two to three-week delay between measures being put in place and their impact being in intensive care.

But I don't seem to be able to upload the graph that accompanies it

Ok, a rather blurry screenshot of it:

But the Daily Express , 23rd March, was explaining the Johnson/Cummings 'let the virus sweep through the population removing the (expensive to keep) old and infirm as it does so but we'll try to spread it out over a few months so that the death toll doesn't look quite so frightening' plan (aka 'herd immunity').

There is an alternative, as practised by other countries, based on suppressing the spread of the virus for as long as is possible to allow time for the development of possible effective treatments and a possible vaccine.

MaizieD
But the Daily Express , 23rd March, was explaining the Johnson/Cummings 'let the virus sweep through the population removing the (expensive to keep) old and infirm as it does so but we'll try to spread it out over a few months so that the death toll doesn't look quite so frightening' plan (aka 'herd immunity').

That was exactly my point, MaizieD - though I would add that I think it was their 'updated/sanitized' version of it with, if I remember rightly, reference to herd immunity removed (I could be wrong though - those early televised updates are hard to find so I can't check the facts as thoroughly as I would like).

I posted it because a lot of people don't remember that model of successive peak ever being mentioned, with the result that they are now surprised at the relaxing of rules and the prospect of further peaks.

I wasn't challenging you, MamaCaz. Sorry if you thought I was..

I agree, the 'herd immunity' was somewhat sanitised after Johnson's 'Take it on the chin' gaffe was heavily criticised

But I think that it is still behind their what passes for a strategy. Why 'ease' lockdown so soon when the NHS is in poor shape to cope with another 'peak' and people are dying at home from other conditions because NHS resources are concentrated on C19?

I think we should have had more time to get resources properly sorted out for another possible peak and restore the NHS to a more 'normal' service for everyone. (And support Care Homes)

Did anyone see the interview earlier with Pallab Ghosh about the usefulness of the new tes which will hopefully be used in the near future? Mostly on at risk workers.
PB kept stressing that though the test can detect antibodies present in that person, the results can't be generalised, and it doesn't mean that the person is now immune.
As far as I understand (it's all very complex) this virus can change/ adapt/ mutate itself to each individual's genetic makeup. and then find a way round any obstacles it meets. All a bit depressing. So yes, there could be a new wave. Anyone who knows more is welcome to correct me.

I wonder exactly why this testing is being proposed if it cannot predict immunity at all, mutations aside.

I wondered about that, too, Luckygirl.

My guess is that it will provide information about how many people have actually been infected (and work out accurate case fatality rates) and in which regions, which could inform future decision making (not that I have much confidence in the ability of anybody to think long term)

I noticed some headlines claiming it was a "breakthrough" and a "game changer", but I don't get it.

I think PB also said it will help to show which age groups, ethnic groups etc are most vulnerable.

Fennel That would be useful to know, although I know that research is already being carried out on that, including other factors such as blood group and pre-existing conditions.

There will always be those who flout the rules, hence lots of people in prison. However by and large people followed the rules re stay at home. As soon as there were hints that the rules were going to be relaxed some people took that to mean everything was ok. There is muddled leadership from Johnson et al at a time when we need decisive leadership. We are the laughing stock of the world and with over 66,000 deaths it doesn’t feel like there is much to laugh about here.

Grannygravy We haven't got a "Stay at Home" rule now. Johnson said people can go out for an "unlimited time" to anywhere they choose provided they maintain a distance from other .people and return to our homes on the same day. The fact is the government is asking people to return to work and, for many of them, maintaining the required distance will be difficult if not impossible.

I expect most people realise that at some point risks such as this will have to be taken but much of the advice has been contradictory and people are confused as to what they should do.

My experience in my area - a heavily populated area of east London - is that the vast majority of people are very, very careful about keeping their distance. They queue outside the local newsagent and only go in one at a time and they invariably cross the road if someone is approaching them.

Of course, it lets this government off the hook trying to place the responsibility for infections and deaths on the general public. The fact is, though, that they have been totally inept from the word go and are still giving misinformation at best and telling lies at worst.

As I think Keir Starmer pointed out, it is very telling that the graph comparing deaths in the UK against other countries was often shown and referred to in briefings. Now our death rate has surpassed all but the US, those graphs seem to have been quietly dispensed with.

For those people who have the patience to read long links, this is interesting:

drive.google.com/file/d/1MD4-8z-yy-lO5ZsfmXAxTUo79iFk1zfy/view

For those who have an hour to spare, this is also worth watching:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdr8-BI2s-Q

What the group is saying is that the "herd immunity" idea isn't the only way forward. It is possible to bring the infection rate right down, but effective finding, testing, tracing and isolation is needed, utilising local public health systems rather than a top down approach. The "good hygiene" rules of social distancing and hand washing, etc need to be reinforced and allowed to happen.

Caving in prematurely to pressures to get the economy moving will be counter-productive for the economy itself and result in many more unnecessary deaths, especially in certain communities.

Eloethan Correct me if it's not your experience, but it seems that in London people have no choice but to use crowded public transport, if they are to go back to work (or have been working all the time). Therefore, all their efforts outside the newsagents will be in vain.

Apparently there were only 30 new cases in London yesterday. If that's true, it's fantastic news.

What now needs to happen (and fingers crossed it will) is for those people to be totally isolated (separating families by providing alternative accommodation if necessary) and for all contacts to be traced and tested.

If that happens and future cases are jumped on promptly, there's a chance that the infection could be almost eradicated from London (and its 10 million people), so business really could get going again (not the other way round).

Infection rates are decreasing (although still not low enough), so the situation is manageable if everybody in government gets their act together.

growstuff Yes, now that more people are returning to work it will certainly be much more risky if they have to use public transport. Not everybody waiting their turn outside the newsagent will be working in central London but, even for the ones who are, I expect - however futile it may be -it shows that people are doing their best to adhere to the guidelines. It goes against the oft expressed narrative that claims large numbers of people are irresponsibly flouting the rules.

The London rate of infection was the highest in the country and has now dropped to a relatively small number. I think this demonstrates that the majority of people in the area have been very conscientiously adhering to the guidelines.

Using the Covid infection app, there are 0.3% / 40 more people with active infections this week.

In my city I should say. Sorry!

The R rate has gone up today, which is probably out of date anyway, but is worrying to say lockdown has just been relaxed in England.

Now our death rate has surpassed all but the US...

Surely the death rate must be looked at in terms of size of the overall population, ie. per capita. We have a population of around 68m; the population of the US is, I believe, some 260m. I have never really thought those graphs showing simply total deaths told us anything useful.

Context is required.

Using that measure Belgium are top but no one wants to hear it!

Until there is a test trace and isolate system firmly and comprehensively in place we should not relax lockdown.

I see Hancock lied again on the evenings press briefing.

I guess they must think enough people are gullible enough to believe them.

Blinko and Pantglass - I agree with you both.
I've been telling husband this for days but he insists that we're the worst.
We're still not doing well though. In comparison with most other countries. Switzerland too has a poor record.

According to the latest figures, we are about third highest for deaths per million, at 501 in UK, below Spain 587, and Italy at 523.

It s interesting now we have almost reached 34,000 deaths that the daily briefings are no longer posting them ?. They could for example easily post the comparison per 100,000.
I think it is sad, and shameful, particularly deaths in Care Homes.