no vaccine for under 50s says vaccine head in UK

BlueBelle

Exactly griwstuff so the elderly infirm or frightened stay at home and the rest get on with keeping the economy going by working, school etc etc What other way is there ?

It's not just the elderly. Approximately 30% of the population, including some younger people, are high risk. That includes teachers and medical staff. The vulnerable would need to come into contact with carers, etc. The idea is bonkers. The only other way is for people to wear their masks and keep their distance and stop finding every loophole going - and that includes politicians and Johnson senior!

PS. Herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine and the idiots who still think it would work would be responsible for killing hundreds of thousands of people and leaving others with lifelong after effects.

We haven't got a proven to be effective and safe vaccine yet.

But when we do get that vaccine, and I hope it will be soon, I would suggest-

First give it to front-line health service and care workers,

Then other essential workers - food producers and distributers, including supermarket and delivery staff, and those who keep other essential services going such as bus drivers.

After that those involved in testing, tracing and analysing the statistics, including epidemiologists advising the government.

Then the news media.

Then everyone over 50, and younger people who are vulnerable.

Then everyone else, including politicians.

Sounds like a plan varian so fingers crossed we don’t have to wait too long.

I see the Daily Mail is headlining today the "life should return to normal apart from the vulnerable, who should be shielded" claptrap. I really do despair when there is so much nonsense spouted and people believe it, without putting their brains into gear and thinking through the consequences. Their alleged "top scientists" are nothing of the sort.

There won't be an effective vaccine for months - if ever - so people need to think how life can adapt rather than hoping that life can go back to normal. We need to act as a society rather than self-interested individuals - and we need a leader to inspire us to do that by leading by example.

This is a long read, but well worth reading before swallowing the stuff in the Daily Mail (which has previously been touted in the Spectator and Telegraph):

bylinetimes.com/2020/09/23/scamademics-right-wing-lobbying-groups-reviving-herd-immunity-in-the-uk/

This idea of letting younger people get on with it is a thinly disguised version of the discredited and dangerous herd immunity theory. There are about 4 or 5 media savvy pseudo-scientists behind it. It's confirmation bias because people are looking for quick fixes and the populist government says what it thinks people want to hear.

Thank goodness Facebook has decided to be more pro-active by deleting one of Trump's untruthful posts about flu being deadlier than Covid-19.

A vaccine is so far away that it's not even worth squabbling about.

Interesting how so many people have become convinced that there is an extremely high death rate with Covid, whereas, it actually just under one percent of those of actually test positive. Probably many more people have it, with so few symptoms they never get a test.

Even Long Covid - what exactly is it? and how many does it effect? and for how long? Seems that it is counted as still having some symptoms a month after positive test.....not very long - and maybe such things as continuing loss of smell, etc. Obviously, some have far worse on-going problems and for longer. Nobody, at present knows for how long these problems will last. Many illnesses can leave us feeling quite poorly for several weeks and even months after we seemingly recover from them.

From my personal point of view I am much much more concerned about the on-going problems economically, and how this is going to effect children and young people - probably for decades to come. So, my priority in all of this is to try to get as near as normal a life as possible for these, schools to stay open, Universities, etc to operate properly and normally. I will be honest and say that if oldies, like myself finish out lives slightly earlier than perhaps we might have (who knows), to achieve this - so be it.

But ......under one percent who actually test positive die, of those who get a positive test about one a half percent still have some nasty symptoms four weeks after recovery. Are we panicking about panicking!!!

Do your maths Franbern.

If Covid-19 was left to infect all those who aren't vulnerable (and there's no way of doing that accurately) that would mean 44 million people would stand a high risk of being infected, unless other measures are in place. (About a third of the population is estimated to be high risk.) The fatality rate from Covid-19 is estimated to be between 0.05 and 0.1%, which means that approximately 440,000 people would die - that's nearly half a million unnecessary deaths, which is why I find the idea of just letting it take its course totally unethical and unacceptable.

Do a little research about "long Covid", which has now been accepted as a medical condition.

So give me some practical ways of keeping schools and universities open. Currently, over 1000 schools in England alone have at least some pupils and staff at home in isolation. Universities are driving up transmission in Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle. What would you do about that?

I'm not panicking. I just despair at those who try to make excuses and couldn't give a damn about the common good.. The government has let the situation get out of control with its constant flip-flopping and listening to the small group of so-called scientists who support their libertarian agenda.

It wouldn't be just a few oldies though would it? The death rate for them is much higher 1 in 4, I believe.

And then the other groups vulnerable to Covid. Younger but with medical conditions. Ethnic minorities.

Do they due for the greater economic good?

Its a viewpoint.

I agree Illte. Inevitably, some older people and those with medical conditions would be infected and die.

Even amongst the younger, working population a disproportionate number of ethnic minority people and those on low incomes have died.

Letting the virus loose amongst the population by "getting back to normal" would kill people - more from ethnic minority and poor backgrounds, which I find immoral.

No, they shouldn't need to die for the greater economic good, especially when they don't get an equal share of the economic good in the first place.

The infection and death rate in Germany is considerably lower than in the UK and the country’s economy hasn’t been so badly infected. This is a summary of what the respected Max Planck Institute says:

www.mpg.de/14773749/covid19-statement

1. Herd immunity not possible because immunity too short.
2. Not feasible to 'shield vulnerable' approach because impossible to fully identify & isolate them.
3. Potential serious, long-term damage to young/healthy also from this virus.

They suggest that what works is:
1. Test/trace/isolate
2. Mask-wearing
3. Distancing
4. Travel restrictions
5. Identifying & stopping super-spreading events.
6. Good guidance to public on what is risky & not.
7 Have a decent national leader.

(OK! I made the last one up. )

1. Herd immunity not possible because immunity too short.

Has there been a study to find out if immunity lasts longer in some individuals and why?
Perhaps it's far too soon for meaningful research.

Yes, there is ongoing research. As yet, there are no conclusions. However, an increasing number of people have been infected twice. It's too early to know how long immunity lasts in the population, but lifelong immunity is certainly not a guarantee.

(I have that from the horse's mouth.)

Research is on going as we speak. There is a great deal to be found out about this virus yet. No one can claim to know that there will/won’t be a vaccine any time soon or in the long term future.
Yes, children do have to go to school. The needs of old people cannot Trump the needs of children. I have a 92 year old mother, and two 93 year old parents in law. Should our grandchildren suffer from a lack of education and in particular should their social and emotional needs be ignored so my very elderly relatives can keep living? No! I will naturally be terribly upset if my mother dies, and my husband (who is far more pragmatic than I am) will doubtless miss his parents, but as he says ‘they’ve had their lives, seen their grandchildren grow up and get married, and seen their great grandchildren born. But die they will, from something, and probably quite soon. And so people must make their own decisions, stay safe by shielding, or by being sensible and obeying the rules, but to claim there will not be a vaccine for a very long time, sorry no one knows, and no one in the older generation should expect schools to close so very old people don’t get infected. It’s selfish.

Incidentally I realise that what I’ve just said is controversial but so be it. Society cannot stop for the old, the economy ruined for the old, and children’s life chances be ruined for the old. The government is trying, with difficulty, to balance the needs of everyone. Let’s let them get on with it, and be thankful Trump isn’t our PM.

How do old people dying keep children and young people safe in schools and universities?

Keeping the economy going won't keep young people safe either. I really am struggling to understand the logic of your argument.

I do not believe the government is trying to balance anybody's needs, except its own need for good PR. It's a disgrace.

Old people dying do not keep children safe in schools, but if schools were closed in order to protect older people, then children’s needs are being ignored in favour of the needs of older people. This cannot be right long term in my opinion. It was right to do it in March, it is not right to do it again now, although some schools will need to close temporarily if there is an outbreak, particularly if this causes there to be insufficient staff for safety. The needs of children cannot be ignored in favour of older people, in my opinion.

The economy has nothing to do with keeping young people or children safe. The economy will be trashed with further close downs, therefore the government need to balance the needs of the economy against the needs of the population, which it is trying to do, under very difficult circumstances. If the economy completely tanks there will be no money to pay for public services, including the fight against Coronavirus. People and businesses need to be paying their taxes so that money is available to the government so that services can be maintained. The hospitality trade has been damaged hugely by Coronavirus. Of course there could be another complete lockdown of the hospitality industry, but who would that help? It would certainly slow the spread of the virus in my opinion, but really citizens, young and old alike, should be able to behave responsibly when using the hospitality sector, by social distancing, hand sanitiser, and waiters/publicans wearing masks and crucially not allowing too many people indoors standing up. If this cannot be done, well who knows, maybe there will be another lockdown of the hospitality sector. The government is trying to balance the needs of children in schools, universities to operate, the hospitality sector to remain solvent, and people to go to work, against the need to keep the population as safe as possible. Therefore the most vulnerable must take steps to protect themselves, and if many of the most vulnerable are older people, then then will need to consider what they can do safely, and judging by Gransnet I think a large majority of older people are doing just that.

If you live in England are over 75 years old and catch Covid 19, the average chance of dying is 11.6%.

This is a significant risk. For men, for those with a number of pre-existing conditions (such as diabetes, heart conditions, OPCD) or for people of BAME ethnicity, the chance of dying is much higher.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2

Whereas very glad that insane Trump is not our President, I am not happy with the so ever changing mind one that we have. He built his political career on being a 'populist' and nowhere in his plans was having to cope with this sort of crisis.

So his so often changes are giving the UK just about the worst record in Europe, in terms both of deaths and economy crash. Dealing with either would be difficult - to be worst at both is disastrous.

However, I do think that we have to prioritise our younger generations in dealing with this. They have a hard enough job dealing with the near destruction of the planet, let alone also trying to live with the economic results from these last few months.

No wonder suicide rates are rising daily - debts are mounting, abuse within the home is increasing, job opportunities in many sectors is dwindling so fast.

Yes, I am frightened, terrified.........not about this virus, (this will come and go), but about the future.

For supporters of "herd immunity" and "getting back to normal", the following are worth reading:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-open-letter-arguing-against-lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/

www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/population_immunity_FINALb.pdf

It's a shame the media is only concerned with pushing one argument and not giving a balanced view.

What do you expect growstuff when 82% of our national newspapers are owned by foreign billionaires and tax exiles with an extreme right wing agenda?

The 82% means 82% of regular readers of our national newspapers. The proprietors and editors of the Express, Daily Mail, Telegraph and Sun have managed to manipulate their readers' views to the extent that they can get away with accusing the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation of being run by "lefties".

It is sad to hear how many decent folk have been brainwashed to the extent that they say "I'm not influenced". Of course they are.

Another link (doesn't take too long to watch but makes the same points):

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lb9cidVAYs&feature=youtu.be