Tiered Lockdown Not Enough

It seems to me that the scientists disagree on the best way deal with the pandemic, and disagree on whether or not a vaccine will help to stop the virus transmission. Some are very negative about it, and others reasonably positive.

Pandemics kill millions and up to now it hasn't scratched the surface. The reason it's killed millions is plain for us all to see in that no vaccine has been sought since the Spanish pandemic and until that happens we all take our lives in our hands. It's literally up to us, the public to do the right thing and avoid crowds and enclosed areas and snivelling coughing people.

Wales is going into lockdown tonight for two weeks. It will be interesting to see if the lockdown approach works better than the tier system.

Yes Woodhouse and maddyone, Devon and Cornwall are once again heaving with families at half term. The holiday destinations are full, but several places have been cancelling tier 3 guests and refunding their stays. The summer passed with only a small rise in cases, so it will be interesting to see what happens this time round.

It’s only a killer disease for a tiny minority of people.
The vast majority make a full recovery and a significant number have it so mildly they aren’t even aware they had it.

It’s worth bearing that in mind when talking about a “killer disease”

JenneferEccles I think that tiny minority of people are valuable. That's not the only issue though, overwhelmed hospitals mean deaths in every age group from other preventable diseases. I also know a lot of younger people who have had long term effects from covid and that's as yet a huge scientific unknown. 221 people died today, the impact losing a loved one to this disease knowing it could have been avoided has will be harder to carry than the other ways they could have gone. Knowing they could have had years with a family member. Unable to visit or be with them at the end.

This is a killer disease that kills longterm physical and mental health for many.

It seems terribly morbid I know, but something that has bothered me a lot since the start of all this is the possibility that either my mother, aged 93, or either of my husband’s parents, both aged 93, might die during this pandemic. My husband and I and my mother all live on the south coast, which is Tier One, whilst my sister and family, and all my husband’s family (except our children and grandchildren of course) live in the north, all in Tier Three. The government advises against travel into or out of Tier Three. If any of our elderly parents died, heaven forbid at this difficult time, my sister and family would want to travel down here to the funeral, and if either of my parents in law died, there would be an expectation that my husband, aged 68, would travel up to the funeral. I’ve already stated categorically that I will not go north, whatever the situation, at this time.
I know worrying about it won’t change what may, or may not, happen. But I do worry about it. They are all three very old, and they may die, not necessarily of Covid19 but of anything. I think a very small funeral service followed by a family attended memorial service and wake, later on, when it’s safer to travel, would be the best solution, but I know there would be resistance from family members, particularly my sister (in the event of my mother’s death) as my sister suffers from major mental health difficulties, which make her selfish and unable to see anyone else’s point of view.
I put this out of my mind as much as possible, but underneath, I worry about it a lot.

Maddyone people travelling from tier 3 to a lower tier can spread the virus. It is strongly advised that people don't do this. I understand your concerns but you have to do what you know to be right. Hopefully the situation won't arise.

I know AGAA4, but should such an event occur, I absolutely would not travel to Tier Three, and I hope my husband wouldn’t either, but I obviously can’t stop him. I hope he would follow the advice.
I worry more about my sister’s reaction should we sadly lose our mum. My sister does exactly as she wants to, which included travelling the length of the country on public transport just before the original lockdown, despite me asking her to not put mum at risk and to stay at home. I just hope none of these situations occur but the longer this goes on, the more likely that we’ll lose one or more of them.

I sympathise with those who have close relatives in different tier areas, and of course the "what ifs" start creeping into ones thoughts. It is hard to have a discussion with a 93 year old about this, but if it were me at 90+, and different tiers were involved, I would tell everyone to stay put, just organise a very small funeral and remember me at a group gathering some time in the future. I would never forgive myself if someone were to get sick or cause another family member to get sick.
Different circumstances altogether, but when my father died in Australia, I decided not risk attending his funeral 5 months after my caesarean because I was needed more at home by my children and my husband. Once you are clear in your own mind what your priorities are, like you are maddyone, it all becomes easier. The tricky bit is dealing with other relatives wanting to do their own thing.
Hopefully it won't even happen.

AGAA4

Wales is going into lockdown tonight for two weeks. It will be interesting to see if the lockdown approach works better than the tier system.

AGA yes, it should have more effect, but then, once back to tier one or two, will it slide back again?

I don't understand the argument about Covid not being the major cause of death in the UK and, therefore, not worth worrying about.

The major causes of death in the UK are dementia/Alzheimer's, heart disease, cancer and strokes. You can't catch any of them from other people. Heart disease, strokes and cancer can be delayed/avoided with long-term lifestyle changes, but you can't avoid them in the same way you can avoid mixing with infected people, which is relatively easy to do.

It is quite rare for people in the UK to die from infectious diseases. The point is that infectious diseases are usually avoidable, as are the deaths.

If there had been no lockdown and people's behaviour hadn't changed since March, there could very well have been hundreds of thousands of Covid deaths (there were were 530,841 from all causes in England and Wales in 2019).

And for those who come out with the line that you're more likely to be run over by a bus - not true. In 2018, there were 1784 road fatalities in the UK, of which hardly any involved buses. There have been almost that number of deaths from Covid in the last week alone. I guess if people want to stand at a crossroads in a busy city where a number of bus routes intersect ...

Lemon yes that could well happen. There will be further restrictions after the two weeks but we have not been told what they are.

AGA yes, it should have more effect, but then, once back to tier one or two, will it slide back again?

Possibly yes.
People were making the most of their last hours of freedom this afternoon and no doubt will be relieved to be released in two weeks' time and perhaps celebrate.

Callistemon It very much depends whether the time is used to sort out the Test and Trace system, so that the majority of results are returned quickly, contacts are informed and social isolation is enforced - with support if necessary. If the Welsh government can get the numbers down and keep the pesky English out, you could see numbers reduced and be able to live almost normal lives.

Apparently, Wales has now adopted "Zero Covid" (which doesn't mean zero, but very low) as a strategy, rather than the half-hearted and woolly herd immunity strategy England still has.

Indie Sage pointed out today that hospitalisations and deaths will almost certainly increase for 2-4 weeks. People dying within that time are already infected and there's not very much which can be done about them, so don't expect immediate results.

We're not sure what they're planning.
But as soon as the pesky English are let over the border again, we could be back to Square One.

I thought this about Australia and New Zealand - ars they just delaying the inevitable?

Sorry for typos, I can't change them for some reason.

The crunch will be whether Test and Trace is efficient. If you can get the numbers down to single figures per million and cases can be identified quickly, any contacts can be isolated and enforcement would be easier with such low numbers.

It won't eradicate it completely, but it would mean that businesses and schools, etc would be able to operate nearly normally, with just a few safety precautions in place.

If people comply, you could find yourselves back to normal life much more quickly than England - with far fewer deaths.

The problem is that the UK has a low level of civil obedience. You only have to look at the illegal street party by students in Portsmouth yesterday. As long as this mindset persists it will be difficult to control the virus. People seem to be looking at how they can get round the rules rather than abiding by them. A full lockdown with severe penalties for breaking the rules does work. You also need efficient testing and contact tracing and people to come forward for testing if they have the slightest symptoms. The UK system is somewhat chaotic to say the least. Look at Victoria in Australia. Look at how China clamped down on it, where people were forcibly taken into quarantine. I am not advocating such practices here but people need to do the right thing

New Zealand, for example was able to control the virus as among other things they have a high level of civil obedience.

GrandmaKT

They were interviewing people on the street on our regional tea time TV news (NW). When asked about Christmas EVERY ONE said that they would be breaking rules (if they are in place), in order to spend time with friends and family. I predict an enormous spike in January, and what would be the point in us all locking down now if we know this is on the horizon?

And there you have it GrandmaKT. We won't be breaking the rules at Christmas, but it does seem that in heavily populated areas people are breaking the rules all the time. I think the present lock down rules aren't there to stop the virus, but just to make things uncomfortable for the general population so we all remember to distance, keep our hands clean and behave ourselves. Going out on the booze a couple of times a week has become the norm for a lot of people (although where they get the money I don't know), a few drinks and everyone is getting too close and shouting in each others faces. I don't think it a north/south divide but a population density divide.

I think the last two posts serve to show what an adverse impact alcohol has had on our society. And this is in every age group and every corner of the country. Poor comportment and much crime is fuelled by alcohol, so I'm guessing the low level of civil obedience mentioned fits in here to. Other countries, which have a different attitude to drinking, seem to fare better.

hondagirl a high level of -civil obedience' depends on the population having respect and trust in those demanding it.

This is the big difference between the UK and New Zealand. Jacinda Ardern and her government have the respect and trust of their fellow New Zealanders. In this country the whole political class, regardless of party allegiance is held in contempt.

Do wish that people would not play the government's game by blaming us (the victims), for they (the governments) totally incompetent, dangerous way of trying to deal with this virus,. This has resulted not only in the total tanking our economy, causing present, and for decades in the future, so much serious distress which is likely to cause more deaths than Covid, but also in meaning that this country has one of the very worst death rates from Covid in the world.
Those countries that have not had such high death rates, nor had their economies tanking - have not had hard lockdowns- BUT proper and excellent and working quick Test, and Trace in operation. Not one that was handed to totally incompetent mates of the government as a millions of pounds contracts, but one that actually works properly.
Lockdowns only the number of cases not prevent them.

It's ridiculous to compare the UK with New Zealand

New Zealand is around the same size as United Kingdom.
United Kingdom is approximately 243,610 sq km, while New Zealand is approximately 268,838 sq km, making New Zealand 10% larger than United Kingdom. Meanwhile, the population of United Kingdom is ~65.8 million people (60.8 million fewer people live in New Zealand).

I can nod in agreement as I am not really affected by this but seeing another side where people are losing jobs , homes , can't properly look after their families then there needs to be a balance . Media highlights poorer families as being ignorant but I live near affluent area where according to my dentist there were 2 kids parties where parents were present . In came entertainers and 30+ children at each . Lockdown will only work if we all take it seriously and sadly some don't . Shopkeepers being screamed at when customers shop without masks . If we all just followed the rules as no government can beat this however strict the rules are if some can't /won't follow.