So lockdown worked!

Ellianne - in answer to your question, because we didn't have as much testing before and so we probably missed an awful lot of cases. Therefore the peak of the number of cases was actually much larger than we thought it was, and so it took longer to get down to very small numbers.

Thanks Alegrias I guess that explains it.
A step in the right direction.

The plan is that the country's measures over the period will be guided by the data. The restrictions for New Year will depend heavily on the number of infections.

As there are fewer than 7 days between the Christmas hooley and New Year I'm at a loss to see where any meaningful data can be obtained.

Am I missing something?

Youcantchoosethem

Hasn’t worked at all around where I live - Braintree in Essex. Rates have gone up massively in the last week - doubling from the previous new high.

I've got exactly the same graph from Zoe for my bit of Norfolk. Strange that.

ALANaV

So far the only winners are the government ....taking democracy away and treating everyone like children ...it is time we took responsibility for ourselves and were allowed to decide how to live our lives safely and sensibly. Inciting mass hysteria is no way to govern a country. Of great concern to me is the mental health of isolated and lonely people...(having worked in the NHS in mental health before retirement) and also the fact that cancer and other illnesses have not been treated. The Nightingale hospitals were built to take COVID patient......and are lying virtually empty ...WHY ? disgraceful ......

Because it was just a PR exercise. They’ve never had the staff to man them.

I think we’re all in a situation that none of us have ever been in before and I think governments if almost every country and working on a system of doing what they believe to be the right thing to curb the virus. Is we'd been told we couldn’t see anyone at Christmas there would have been uproar and people doing just as they please anyway. We have been told that we can mix with 2 other households but doesn’t mean that we have to. Our decision. It will be interesting to see how the virus figures rise/fall during the aftermath of the celebrations.

MaizieD

^The plan is that the country's measures over the period will be guided by the data. The restrictions for New Year will depend heavily on the number of infections.^

As there are fewer than 7 days between the Christmas hooley and New Year I'm at a loss to see where any meaningful data can be obtained.

Am I missing something?

Meaningful data is being gained week on week, day on day too. Show me any country which has made firm decisions about New Year yet. They are all still waiting to see where the infection rate is heading before calling a New Year amnesty on restrictions.

I agree GreyKnitter. No one has a crystal ball to see the future.

I very much fear, Elleanne that it doesn't take a crystal ball to see where the infection rate will be heading after Christmas.

The data for Christmas week will be based on infections contracted before Christmas, which may well still be heading downwards. Any effects of the Christmas relaxation won't be seen until after New Year, assuming a 7 - 14 day incubation period. Which is why I can't see how there can be any meaningful data on which to base New Year planning.

Are the Australians right? Are we just a nation of "moaning poms"?
Sashabel That's how it looks from Down Under!
Victoria, which includes Melbourne of course, has now gone 31 days without a single new Covid case or Covid-related death.
That's over 6 million people; the other States also have smilarly impressive figures such that interstate travel has resumed and social activities are more relaxed.
This has all been made possible by the very early testing programmes, quarantine, overnight curfews, face masks etc. The imposition of severe financial penalties for any breaches has undoubtedly kept people focussed!
Plus, and this is vital, self discipline and sensible observation of all rules set by medical personnel.
Doctors, nurses, carers have been fantastic and we all owe them our deepest gratitude.

We know from daily TV News that the Old Country is doing it tough and we wish you well in your struggles!
OoRoo

Totally agree ALANaV.

If lockdowns worked we wouldn't need another one (or a lockdown by another name ie tiers.)

Well said, SaraC.

I can tell you one thing that isn’t working in my corner of Essex and that’s senior school children who should be home isolating due to a Covid case in their bubble are out and about on bikes, scooters and hanging around in medium to large groups outside our small local supermarket.

I guess the parents are at work or totally given up. Lockdown fatigue is definitely on the rise!

I dont think that we need a crystal ball. Canada had a spike following Thanksgiving in mid October. There are warnings about the possible increase in cases following the US Thanksgiving, we will have to see if they are reflected in the figures in the next month. You don't need to be a genius or consult the Tarot to work out how this is going to pan out. More practical advice could have been that households should avoid mixing as far as possible to maintain the drop in infection rate. No prosecutions over the festive period, just advice backed with the evidence. We know that household mixing results in the spread.

Sensible answer! We have been given guidelines as to what we can/can't do. I know some people don't like being told what to do but at the end of the day the meeting up with relatives/friends is our decision. We can to choose to be on our own or meet up with/invite family members. If any are vulnerable perhaps take a dinner to their porch (if they live close enough). I know it's an important day for a lot of people but there are lives being lost around the world due to the pandemic and other issues. Lets look out for each other by checking on people we can't see and making sure they're warm and have food in the house. Hopefully soon we can get out and about and visit when it's safer. If we're not careful we may not have elderly or vulnerable relatives/friends to visit in the future. Lets be sensible even if we meet up with others and enjoy the christmas period as much as possible. I will be thinking of people who have lost their jobs and if you know anyone who has perhaps tell them not to worry about presents this year but I would also sort out some food hampers to help them out.

GrannyRose15

Totally agree ALANaV.

If lockdowns worked we wouldn't need another one (or a lockdown by another name ie tiers.)

I take it you haven’t read the posts pointing out that Australia is now back to relative normality as a result of lockdowns then?

Maybee70. So many people who don’t read any posts it seems.!

RUFUS. Great post and what you say is echoed by my son who is in Sydney. “ This has all been made possible by the very early testing programmes, quarantine, overnight curfews, face masks etc. The imposition of severe financial penalties for any breaches has undoubtedly kept people focussed!”
Absolutely! Decisive action and compliance from the public rather than whingeing about mask wearing etc.

We are not being forced to get together at Christmas and people should use their common sense which in some people is sadly lacking. If the government had not allowed families to get together at Christmas the press would have had a field day. The press have unwisely in my view, been pushing for people to be able to spend Christmas together. I can imagine the uproar on social media sites if the government had prevented people getting together. As some posters have pointed out the government simply cannot win whatever they do. I will be following Nichola Sturgeon’s example and not be seeing any elderly or vulnerable relatives or friends.

GrannyRose15

Totally agree ALANaV.

If lockdowns worked we wouldn't need another one (or a lockdown by another name ie tiers.)

If lockdown does not work it is because of the arrogance and stupidity of people who believe the rules do not apply to them and that they have the right to live their lives as they choose, regardless of the effect their choice may have on other people.

The Prime Minister really can't win. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

Wrong. As I said up thread. I loathed thatcher but she’d have taken much more decisive action andDealt with the pandemic much more effectively.

But how Lucca ?
It’s so very easy to be critical but with a population the size of ours and with such a large ethnic mix, there is no magic formula to ensure the best outcome for the hospitals and the economy.

I happen to think Margaret Thatcher was the best PM we have ever had but I don’t think even she would have managed to protect both lives and livelihoods.

Ive had a discussion with second son about Xmas. We (me and my OH) are one household, my son and his wife another. They want to visit her parents which is household 3. My other son is visiting his parents in law that is households 4 and 5. So if I want to see that son and his wife that will mean 6 households mixing although not all at the same time. No wonder people get confused. So Covid is having a break from infecting people for 5 days? How nice that would be. And what happens on New Years Eve. I cannot see everyone staying in and behaving. We all suffered the first lockdown which worked well in slowing down the virus and as soon as people mix it increases again. I can see a third lockdown on the horizon probably in late January/February. I have no faith in our government but I do think tighter restrictions may just help if only people can be sensible.

As of today 30th November, the second wave has peaked in England’s hospitals, with the number of beds occupied by covid patients falling for five consecutive days across the country.
So yes, lockdown (itself) worked!

As a family we are getting together on Christmas day,but differently from normal.We have a conservatory next to the dining room,our grandchildren are going to eat in there and we oldies are going to eat in the dining room.We can see each other and have a conversation with them while social distancing,so for us problem solved!