Your idea of stable??

Alegrias1

Thank you Teacheranne, what a nice response.

Most of the graphs I post are from TravellingTabby, which is run by a student from Ayrshire. He uses the standard data sources such as ONS, PHS and so on, but puts them into clear graphs. He's won awards for communicating the data effectively throughout the pandemic and has just got funding to keep the site going a bit longer.

No, I'm not his mum

That possible explains the data discrepancies, if you're using statistics from PHS. I use the stats from the whole of the UK or from PHE, because I happen to live in England and they're most relevant to me.

It also might explain differences in approaches and interpretation. I understand there are still some restrictions in Scotland, whereas in England it's more or less a free-for-all with people using their alleged common sense.

Oh FGS growstuff. There's a page for Scotland and a page for UK. Then UK page includes international figures too and the data is split out for the 4 home nations.

I'm not a complete data innocent, you know.

MadeInYorkshire

Alegrias1

I really take exception to the " finding contradicting graphs" comment Teacheranne. Especially as the BBC and Guardian articles I found said that half of cases were under 19 - not the same at all as half of cases being aged 12 to 16.

Yes, stats are hard, if you misinterpret them. So I'll stick with the ones I have proof of.

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Do we have any statistics which tell us how many deaths there were in unvaccinated and vaccinated people anywhere?

Its here MadeInYorkshire

www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/vaccine

Just for Scotland. Proportions are probably similar for the rest of the UK. IMO. I could be completely and utterly wrong.

I agree that we have to learn to live with it, but I think the perception for a lot of people is that it’s gone away. It may be sensible to reintroduce basic mandatory precautions so that infection rates can be kept low during the winter months, but I also think we need to be aware that the effects of other winter illnesses such as flu, is going to be worse because of the lowering of immunity due to lockdowns etc.

Teacheranne

Alegrias1

I really take exception to the " finding contradicting graphs" comment Teacheranne. Especially as the BBC and Guardian articles I found said that half of cases were under 19 - not the same at all as half of cases being aged 12 to 16.

Yes, stats are hard, if you misinterpret them. So I'll stick with the ones I have proof of.

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Apologies, I really did not intend to infer that you would search for contradicting graphs, I meant that there are so many different graphs being produced that information can be very confusing.

I agree with you about the articles saying cases were under 19’s rather than the ages I referred to, I’m not sure where I got that information from and could have mis read, mis remembered or made it up! Not intentionally made up though, more a case of skim reading!

I think the Office of National Statistics data can be believed but I would be interested which sources you use as I find the information and graphs you post easy to understand and not exaggerated.

Thanks for pointing out my error.

There's a time lag in ONS data, so it's never as up-to-date as reporting by each country's medical agencies. ONS data is generally slightly higher because it includes people who have somehow slipped through the net. Hospitals, care homes, GPs, etc also don't always report deaths promptly, which is why daily stats aren't always accurate and explains why Monday's figures include weekends and there's always a blip.

MadeInYorkshire

MayBee70

DD messaged me tonight to say she’d nipped into the Coop and no one was wearing a mask. I’ve got to go to Max Spielmans next week to get my passport photo done. It’ll be the first time in eighteen months that I’ll be in a shop without wearing a mask, albeit only for a few minutes, and I’d be much happier if other people in the shop were wearing masks.

Just wear one until you need to take it off for the photos…..

It went really well. Got there first thing. The shop doors were completely open and I was in and out very quickly. Not only that but got lots of advice about renewing my passport and driving licence.

Incidentally, case numbers are underreported. That's because people who have Covid more than once aren't included, nor are those who are asymptomatic (usually because they don't know they're infected) and those who only have mild symptoms, recover quickly and don't bother reporting.

It's all the governments fault again!!! Well no it is NOT. It is the fault of the people who refuse to get vaccinated. In the Caribbean the majority of the indigenous population simply refuse to have the jab. St Lucia is second to bottom of the list . St Vincent and the Grenadines are the worst. I have spoken to a few Caribbean people here in London and they all told me of family members who, for religious reasons or because of slaves being given injections ( I know nothing about that) they are mistrustful of such medicines. Our housekeeper refuses and so do her adult children. She says she has a healthy body and eats well and looks after herself and does not need it. She works all day masked at the house and is not giving in. Doctors are tearing their hair out and in London we have a lot of ethnic minorities who refuse too. Some people have the mistaken opinion that they will live forever. I do not want to live in a country where jabs are compulsory but I obey the rules about masks in public and on public transport and the government has to get the economy on its feet again. It is up to us to protect ourselves. You can only do so much to persuade people. I must say I was astonished to read that people working in hospitals and care homes still have not been vaccinated! It is simply ignorance. You cannot legislate against stupidity!

This is the age distribution of English cases reported to PHE on 16 October:

0-9: 11.76% (4574)
10-19: 32.33% (12575)
20-29: 6.40% (2491)
30-39: 10.98% (4271)
40-49: 16.00% (6225)
50-59: 11.08% (4310)
60-69: 6.34% (2468)
70-79: 3.61% (1404)
80-89: 1.15% (446)
90+: 0.34% (134)

A couple of points:

I don't have the data for Scotland, Wales or NI.

Those are the groups PHE uses to report. Any stat with, for example under 16s, comes from some other dataset or is an estimate (I suspect the latter).

Each cohort is a different size. There are obviously more 10-19 year olds than there over 90s. I don't know how many are in each group.

On 16 October, 45% (approx) of all reported cases were in under 19 year olds. Most - but not all - were of secondary school age. I have seen a further breakdown to differentiate between over/under 16 year olds. The rate in under 16 year olds, who haven't had a chance to be vaccinated, is higher than over 16 year olds, but I don't know how that was calculated.

PS. It's curious that the case rate in 20-29 year olds is relatively low compared with other groups because they also have a low(ish) rate of vaccination. I don't have any explanation, apart from wondering if they've already been infected and have some immunity.

Annie1 Case rates in Greater London are currently on average the lowest in the UK.

PS. Annie1 What about the delay in offering schoolchildren the vaccine?

Alegrias1

Oh FGS growstuff. There's a page for Scotland and a page for UK. Then UK page includes international figures too and the data is split out for the 4 home nations.

I'm not a complete data innocent, you know.

Neither am I!

Firstly I am double vaccinated so not a conspiracy theorist. I have serious doubts about the rising infection figures. With numbers of infections very high in this area despite a very high uptake ie over 80% of double vaccinated I dont think the vaccine is protecting anyone from infection. It's protecting people from serious illness or death I agree with that.
So why are we having vaccine passports if it doesn't stop infection? I think rates of infections are rising due to people thinking they can't catch Covid as they are fully vaccinated.
There should have been a dramatic fall in infection rates here with 80%+ vaccinated but my area has one of the highest rates in the UK. People are being lulled into a false sense of security IMO

Let unvaccinated choose the vaccine they want out of the three available. I guarantee more would then get vaccinated. In fact, you can choose now by going to a walk in centre. Many people probably don't realise this. (And while we're at it, allow single vaccinated people to choose a different second one if they prefer. This is better than not getting a second one at all.)

growstuff

Incidentally, case numbers are underreported. That's because people who have Covid more than once aren't included, nor are those who are asymptomatic (usually because they don't know they're infected) and those who only have mild symptoms, recover quickly and don't bother reporting.

And just to add that some who are tested were told they were negative when in fact they may have been positive.

Having been relieved to find they did not have Covid, just a sniffles, they then went about their daily business including going into school where they could pass it on to other unvaccinated pupils.

So why are we having vaccine passports if it doesn't stop infection?

Is it that if you are double vaccinated and catch covid you are likely to have a milder version with a lower viral load and so less likely to pass it to anyone else?

My 'co-gran', double vaccinated, tested positive for covid this weekend. Immediate family, including my GS, who have been in contact with her have all tested negative, twice (though, admittedly, only on an LFT). She's showing no symptoms at all.

I'm double vaccinated, overweight and 69. I caught Covid-19 on 1st October and tested positive on LFT and PCR. I had practically no symptoms whatsoever. A slight cough and felt like I was getting a mild cold. I kept waiting for the more serious symptoms that never came. It seems this virus effects people differently regardless of any comorbidities or vulnerabilities. We all need to do what we feel is necessary to protect ourselves.

I really don't get what is going on in different age groups (40-49s?) and in different areas of the country.
We try to keep abreast of it all as we have (educational) work interests in both London and the South West. It now seems like the London rates are lower than our very compliant corner of Devon where 79% have been double vaccinated. Added to that we certainly don't have the number of ethnic minorities Anniel mentioned. The advanced age most people here also means that not that many are out in bars, theatres, concerts like in the capital, yet the infection rates here are keep rising.
In some respects we have noticed that London is maybe more aware because they had it so bad, whereas we are a bit naive having got off lightly in 2020.
I have no answers and no evidence to work on which isn't good, because I am now considering taking GC up to London for Christmas events rather than staying closer to home. This ironically is the reverse of many people flocking to the South West from the cities this summer.

I can't explain it either Josianne. Public health officials with knowledge of local areas might have some idea. It would be good to know because people would have a better idea about transmission and how to avoid it. I think it does indicate that it's not all the fault of the public's non-compliance with guidelines.

MaggsMcG

I'm double vaccinated, overweight and 69. I caught Covid-19 on 1st October and tested positive on LFT and PCR. I had practically no symptoms whatsoever. A slight cough and felt like I was getting a mild cold. I kept waiting for the more serious symptoms that never came. It seems this virus effects people differently regardless of any comorbidities or vulnerabilities. We all need to do what we feel is necessary to protect ourselves.

It could be that the vaccine did its job and protected you or that you didn't pick up a high viral load. Who knows?

Callistemon

growstuff

Incidentally, case numbers are underreported. That's because people who have Covid more than once aren't included, nor are those who are asymptomatic (usually because they don't know they're infected) and those who only have mild symptoms, recover quickly and don't bother reporting.

And just to add that some who are tested were told they were negative when in fact they may have been positive.

Having been relieved to find they did not have Covid, just a sniffles, they then went about their daily business including going into school where they could pass it on to other unvaccinated pupils.

You're right. I forgot about them.

Josianne one factor may be that people who took PCR tests were told by the Wolverhampton laboratory, where south-west testing was done, that they were negative and consequently went out into the community, to work and school and thus spread the virus.

You're right. I forgot about them.
This family is very aware of it, growstuff!

sazz1

Firstly I am double vaccinated so not a conspiracy theorist. I have serious doubts about the rising infection figures. With numbers of infections very high in this area despite a very high uptake ie over 80% of double vaccinated I dont think the vaccine is protecting anyone from infection. It's protecting people from serious illness or death I agree with that.
So why are we having vaccine passports if it doesn't stop infection? I think rates of infections are rising due to people thinking they can't catch Covid as they are fully vaccinated.
There should have been a dramatic fall in infection rates here with 80%+ vaccinated but my area has one of the highest rates in the UK. People are being lulled into a false sense of security IMO

sazz The high case numbers are due to the number of under 19s who are infected. Most of them haven't even been offered a vaccine.

On the contrary, the relatively low numbers of cases in the older age groups, where vaccine take up has been high, indicate that vaccines do work.

I agree that people are being lulled into a false sense of security, which is why I personally think mask wearing should be mandatory and people should avoid enclosed spaces where possible and keep their distance.

Callistemon

^You're right. I forgot about them.^
This family is very aware of it, growstuff!

Sorry to hear that.