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Pollsters predict shock Tory Losses

(185 Posts)
GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 22:42:27

YouGov estimate points to hung parliament with 20 fewer seats for May

Its only one poll but a very large one predicting a Conservative Party loss of 20 seats and Labour gain of nearly 30 leading to a hung parliament.

anniegold195 Thu 01-Jun-17 21:51:41

Nobody knows what the final results will be - I believe its media hype. these polls can never be confirmed as to how many people took part and what their personal beliefs were.

durhamjen Thu 01-Jun-17 21:59:24

Of course they can. Pollsters don't just pluck figures out of the air.

Just go and have a look on yougov, and you'll see how many people are on there, and how they vote.

Anya Fri 02-Jun-17 08:16:06

It's a bit like the weather forecast though isn't it? Hit and miss.

I'd sooner go outside and look around at the sky or, in this case, listen to what people around me are saying. Of course that's only the local forecast, no idea what Essex Girl thinks.

GracesGranMK2 Fri 02-Jun-17 08:19:51

Tegan your SO is right in that they did say they could go into a coalition with a GB led party but the maths did not add up so they couldn't anyway.

GracesGranMK2 Fri 02-Jun-17 08:20:14

couldn't not could.

GracesGranMK2 Fri 02-Jun-17 08:40:16

Nobody knows what the final results will be - I believe its media hype. these polls can never be confirmed as to how many people took part and what their personal beliefs were.

Anniegold, I wonder if you realise what polling is? Obviously nobody knows what the result will be; polling is not the election. However, these are statistical assessments with all the knowledge of the people carrying them out and they are always given a wide range of possibility.

The media will report the results - just as they will report the results of scientific research into a cure for an illness and they will interpret them in the way the whichever branch of the media they are in does this. The media may bias their interpretation of the result but it is up to us to know the style and positioning of the media so we know how to read this.

Of course we can know how many people took part - why would you think we do not - it is usually reported, even by some of our biased media? We will also be told what modelling they used to arrive at their conclusions. It is all very clear. It is your job to become informed not just to accept the information any one source of media may feed you.

durhamjen Fri 02-Jun-17 10:21:51

Statistics from London.

YouGov (them again) gave the Evening Standard a first edition (it was changed later) splash that the Corbyn surge has really taken off in London. Labour were on 50% to the Tories’ 33%. For the first time, the capital’s voters rated Corbyn (37%) over May (34%) as the best candidate for Prime Minister.

rosesarered Fri 02-Jun-17 11:33:00

Varian am glad that you put the real truth out there, that the LiB Dems didn't just 'choose' to go into coalition with the Conservatives, it was the only thing they could do.Nick Clegg did really well, but was given no credit at all.

rosesarered Fri 02-Jun-17 11:34:05

Certain cities, London included will always be Labour strongholds overall.

GracesGranMK2 Fri 02-Jun-17 18:02:38

Tory grandee Michael Heseltine launched a stinging attack on Johnson, saying he must answer for the consequences of the campaign to take the UK out of the EU.
“He has ripped the Tory party apart, he has created the greatest constitutional crisis in peacetime in my life,” he told the BBC. “He has knocked billions off the value of the savings of the British people.”

Lord Heseltine slams Boris Johnson for 'abandoning his army'

varian Fri 02-Jun-17 20:15:02

Who will ever gain anything from the potential disaster that is brexit?

Possibly some of the super-rich, billionaire tax exile newspaper proprietors - not you, me, or any of the poor fools who were conned last year into voting for a pig in a poke.

If you vote for a party which will give the British people a say on the final deal, we may still avert this disaster. Vote LibDem.

whitewave Fri 02-Jun-17 20:16:45

I am absolutely dreading Brexit.

Ginny42 Fri 02-Jun-17 20:23:57

Me too ww, and oh how I hope we're wrong!

Welshwife Fri 02-Jun-17 21:07:23

I cannot get over how all the politicians have list their b***s and all keep stating we must leave the EU! That is so far from the truth and the more time goes on the more we see some of the predictions coming true. Problem is that even. If the UK applies to rejoin it will never have the same business etc in the City although eventually some companies may return to the UK.

Eloethan Sat 03-Jun-17 00:40:27

I think we need to be cautious about the polls - not only can they be wrong (do the people who are selected in these polls always tell the truth about their voting intentions?) but they can also change the way people behave.

I think there is only a small chance that Labour will win. I'm sure the mainstream media will continue to do everything in its power to keep Labour out - and in these last few days will sling even more mud. Even if Labour gets in, its socialist agenda will ensure every effort will be made by the rich and powerful - both here and abroad - to sabotage it. Nevertheless, I would like to see a Labour win, despite the very significant challenges. We need to stop this toxic austerity cycle which is like letting the roof of your house fall in and your children starve in order to save money in the here and now while risking bigger financial and social problems in the future.

GracesGranMK2 Sat 03-Jun-17 10:16:50

I would say only a very, very small chance Eloethan and to make it happen all the young people who have signed up to vote for the first time would have to actually do it as would every older Labour voter.

Matthew Paris, a staunch Conservative turned journalist writing in the Times today, says that this has been a stupid election; that Theresa May and her team have been insulting our intelligence with stupid slogans. He said that even if the Conservatives do win, they will have more seats but less admiration and he believes this has been an undignified campaign.

whitewave Sat 03-Jun-17 10:25:55

I think that this is the beginning of the end of the love affair with the evil Tories. Always supposing there was ever much of a one as they haven't won convincingly since Labour lost office.

durhamjen Sat 03-Jun-17 12:33:52

Fallon said that there will be no tax rises under the Tories.
May was asked about it in Yorkshire today, and has refused to rule it out!
Is Fallon going to lose his job as well?

durhamjen Sat 03-Jun-17 13:03:55

Labour's manifesto for disabled people launched today.

twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/870966489767084032/photo/1

Somehow, I don't think the Tories have one.

Eloethan Wed 07-Jun-17 13:20:26

I think the trick has been to be very vague about everything, with various people saying different things about taxation, immigration and pensions and other benefits. In that way, those who vote Conservative can't really complain if there are some very nasty surprises if the Conservatives win. The ambiguous messages are, I think, intentional.

Eloethan Wed 07-Jun-17 13:22:53

As to the "shock Tory losses" polls, I view them with suspicion and hope that no Labour supporters are lulled into a false sense of security. We need every vote.

Anniebach Wed 07-Jun-17 13:24:53

This election campaign is so like the Trump v Clinton campaign, hysteria has set in

rosesarered Wed 07-Jun-17 14:14:01

only amongst some ab wink

Anniebach Wed 07-Jun-17 14:30:18

True roses ?

Rigby46 Wed 07-Jun-17 14:33:06

<sigh>