Unintended consequences of brexit

I haven’t demanded that any posters immediately give me their reasons for voting to Remain, because I assume they made an informed choice, which is what posters who voted to leave the EU did also.

Well, after several years of reading your posts on the Politics threads, lemongrove I’m glad to hear you say that.

It would be nice to believe that every voter in the EU referendum made an informed choice, but sadly that is very far from the truth.

When we are all properly informed about the reality of brexit, we might be better able to make that choice but there will always be people who make their voting choices on the basis of doing what they are told by their favourite newspaper, which will strongly steer them in a certain direction.

Good grief varian what a condescending generalisation. If you have anything to back up your claim that "there will always be people who make their voting choices on the bases of doing what they are told by their favourite newspaper" I'd be interested in seeing it.

King’s College London’s centre for the study of media, communication and power (CMCP) looked at more than 15,000 articles published online by 20 national news outlets and found that immigration and the economy were the two most-covered issues in coverage described by as “acrimonious and divisive”.

Media interest in immigration more than tripled during the 10-week campaign, rising faster than any other political issue and appearing on 99 front pages, compared with 82 about the economy. Most of these front pages (79) were published by pro-leave newspapers.

Specific nationalities were singled out for particularly negative coverage – especially Turks and Albanians, but also Romanians and Poles.

The majority of this negative coverage was from three online publications: the Mail, the Sun and the Express.

www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/policy-institute/CMCP/UK-media-coverage-of-the-2016-EU-Referendum-campaign.pdf

Not only was the majority of pre-referendum coverage in support of leaving, but the readers of newspapers were more likely to vote leave than the general population.

Regular newspaper readers were more likely to vote Leave in the UK referendum on EU membership, according to research. The survey of a 30,000-strong online panel found that only 41 per cent of those who said they do not read a newspaper voted Leave (versus 52 per cent of the general population).

Press Gazette analaysis has found that overall, national press coverage was strongly weighted in favour of Leave in the month leading up to the referendum.

Four national newspaper titles were found to be strongly biased in favour of Leave through their choice of front-page stories: the Daily Express, Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph and The Sun. Data from the British Election Study found that some 70 per cent of Sun and Daily Express readers voted Leave in the referendum, followed by 66 per cent of Daily Mail readers, 55 per cent of Daily Telegraph readers and 44 per cent of Daily Mirror readers.

www.pressgazette.co.uk/study-readers-of-the-sun-express-and-daily-mail-strongly-favoured-brexit-in-eu-referendum/

Varian your identification of national newspaper titles with a remain or leave bias sounds right.

In "How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday ... and why," a survey of 12,369 voters in the United Kingdom conducted the day of the referendum, Lord Ashcroft found the No. 1 issue propelling people to vote "leave" was their belief that the U.K. should remain a self-governing entity not responsible to some supranational body writing rules and regulations about the economy and other matters.

This was true for all voters, those who described themselves as Labour voters as well as those who said they were Conservative. It's a direct shot at "big government" interference in local affairs coming out of the bureaucracy in Brussels. Immigration – or immigration sans assimilation, the second most important motivator behind a vote to "leave" the EU.
To quote directly from the analysis of the poll:
Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was "the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK". One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving "offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders." Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice "about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead." Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that "when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it."

Those who sided with "remain," interestingly enough, did so out of fear. Lord Ashcroft's poll found the argument most persuasive to Conservative and Labour voters alike was the idea things would get much worse, in some nonspecific way, should the U.K. leave the EU. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the founder's vision of a United Europe.

lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

“Project fear” as it became known, instilled by the Remain campaign and supporting newspapers and other media was cross party.

The traditional left wing and right wing or centre publications were in some confusion as to which side to support, since remain votes and leave votes were coming from across the political spectrum, possibly not so with the Liberal Democrat voters, since membership of the EU as a political institution is well established in their modern ideology.

The result was that remain electorate were influenced by publications some media and across party politicians who chose supported remain. Whilst the leave electorate were similarly exposed to the same media, publications and political cross party supporters who chose to support the leave campaign.

Yesterday 15th May 2018 the latest official figures from the Office of National Statistics showed that employment is at a record high, with more than 2,000 finding work daily. The current workforce stands at 32.34 million – the highest since records started in 1971. The total having risen by 609,000 since the referendum of June 2016.

The ONS also said the number of EU citizens working in Britain has also gone up since the referendum almost 2.37million were employed in March 155,000 more than at the beginning of 2016.

Workers from outside the EU have risen by 235.000 over the past two years.

John Longworth former head of the British Chamber of Commerce said: “Project fear has been trounced by the outstanding job figures”.

Whilst the Eurozone unemployment figures remain high at 8.5% compared to the UK since Brexit where the figures are at a 43 year low of 4.3%.

Unemployment rates in the Eurozone by country are:
France 8.8,% Italy 11% , Spain 16.1%. Whilst the average across the advanced world is a mere 5.4%

Chief Economist of Earnst & Young believes the labour market figures indicate that the “economy is not as weak” as some have suggested.

The ONS figures show wages are rising faster than for nearly three years. Average pay rose by 3% the biggest rise since 2015 ahead of inflation by 2.5 per cent.

Could you put links to those quotes and figures above please allyg because they obviously do not all come from Lord Ashcroft’s poll.
Thanks.

I think an interesting figure, whether numbers or percentage, would be those people who are in full time work and not needing any benefit (apart from what is the equivalent of family allowance) and those who are fully independen5 financially. So many people are now in very low paid jobs and many jobs are now paying less than ten years ago.

It is well established that The Sun, The Daily Mail, The Express and The Telegraph were successful in persuading their readers to vote leave in the EU referendum and their influence was decisive.

The Sun is owned by Rupert Murdoch, an Australian who lives in the USA.

The Daily Mail is owned by Viscount Rothermere. In 2013, Private Eye reported that Viscount Rothermere falsely claims non-dom status, in order to avoid paying tax on his stately home, Ferne House. This move saves him several millions of pounds in tax annually.

The Express is owned by Richard Desmond, who has sought to shed his reputation as a porn baron since starting his business empire in the adult publishing industry with titles such as Asian Babes and Reader’s Wives – a pattern which continues today with Desmond owning the Television X and Red Hot television channels.

The Telegraph is owned by Sir David Barclay and Sir Frederick Barclay commonly referred to as the "Barclay Twins". They have very substantial business interests primarily in media, retail and property. The Sunday Times Rich List of 2017 estimated their wealth at £7.2 billion. In 1993 the brothers bought the lease of the island of Brecqhou, off the coast of Sark, one of the smallest of the British Channel Islands, saving them from paying UK taxes.

So the so-called "will of the people" is actually the will of a handful of billionaires who are either foreign nationals, tax exiles or pornographers.

How could this ever be allowed in a so-called democracy?

Yes your right Mostlyharmless. The facts and figures come from the ONS I should have put the link for you here it ishttps://www.ons.gov.uk

varian
It is true that our newspapers are partisan based upon their owners, however the number of people who actually read newspapers is a faction of what it was, most people get their information and develop their ideals through TV, radio, the Internet and to a large extent from the environment within which they live and work and often Very different life experiences and levels of education yet they can come from what appear to be very different social paradigms to reach the same conclusions.
So it cannot be said that newspapers or indeed any other media or red busses directly influenced the referendum outcome. I have world travelled Phd's and never left the village, never worked types who voted the same way citing the same reasons both remainders and leavers so trying to attribute one sides voting to newspapers, media or any other all encompassing reason is futile.

An EU referendum analysis carried out immediately after the referendum in 2016,"Early reflections from leading Uk academics" present their analysis ranging from the press involvement, the mistaken profile of the "leave" voter, to the identification of the new self regarded elite" and the division between the elite and the large, wide spread diverse economic, political and social groups across Britain. Just snippets here. link is posted.

"YouGov reports over 70% of Sun, Express and Mail readers supported ‘Brexit’ in March 2016 before their papers formally endorsed one side while 91% of Guardian readers and 62% of Times readers were ‘remain’ supporters before the campaign officially started. Given the fragile state of news finances, it would be a bold editor who would go against the views of their readers".

Professor Dan Wilson on the press and the the self appointed elite.“The whole problem is that neither a press that is largely dominated by billionaire proprietors nor broadcasters that are all too often enmeshed with the elites themselve’s, are able to make sense of and to articulate the divisions that exist in our society.”
EU Referendum Analysis 2016: Media, Voters and the Campaign
Early reflections from leading UK academics
irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/28759/1/PubSub6174_Henn.pdf

Looking at class Lorenza Antonucci, Laszlo Horvath, and André Krouwel found that "Self-assessment of class presents obvious limitations, but our findings become even more relevant if we consider that Britons tend to identify themselves as working class – even when holding middle class jobs." They add that, "This analysis does not rule out the popularity of the Leave vote within particular working class communities, but it aims to show that the Leave vote is far from being the expression of a singular and conscious working class, as commentators assume." It instead confirms that the middle class support was very relevant to the Brexit outcome – perhaps the predominant group behind Brexit, as argued by Dorling (see youtube link).
www.youtube.com/channel/UC6o-wWU-v2ClFMwougmK7dA

Lorenza Antonucci, Laszlo Horvath, and André Krouwel
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-and-the-squeezed-middle/

Welsh wife if you go onto the Office of National Statistics web site you might find the answer to your question. The ONS cover all National stats. www.ons.gov.uk

That fits with all the people we know Allygran none of which are working class.

Not that it matters a jot, except to a few posters who do seem to be obsessing about it.To keep fighting against leaving the EU is pointless, as we are well on the way to achieving that goal.

Joelsnan. In full agreement with you.

Hi Lemongrove you would enjoy reading the academic analysis there are about 12 academics covering a range of issues expressing their view of Brexit from their academic discipline view point.

The Dorling youtube coverage is excellent I thought. It really shows how diverse the leave voter profile really is. As you say most leave voters know this already.

Professor Micheal Auther of University College London has admitted ( before the select committee) that despite his claim that Brexit would deter eu students there had been a 15% increase at his university this year.
He also admitted that he plucked a figure out of the air when claiming how Brexit was going to impact on our
universities standing in the world.
I would suggest he didn't pluck a figure, he lied, and he's been found out.

In understanding how the media influenced the referendum result it is important to recognise that before the campaign even began the large parts of the public had been primed by the media to be Eurosceptic. During the campaign the Leave campaign was able to build on this through appeals that highlighted long-established themes around sovereignty and immigration.

www.referendumanalysis.eu/eu-referendum-analysis-2016/section-1-context/understanding-the-role-of-the-mass-media-in-the-eu-referendum/

A bigger percentage of Sun readers voted for Brexit than those who buy any other paper, a study has revealed.

Seven out of 10 who read the nation’s favourite paper voted to leave the EU in the June 23 referendum, the National Centre for Social Research found. The same 70% of Daily Express readers also backed Brexit, compared to 66% of Daily Mail readers and only 55% of the Daily Telegraph’s. All four newspapers supported leaving the EU.

People were more likely to follow the position of the newspaper they read than the party they supported

www.thesun.co.uk/news/2346308/the-sun-had-the-highest-percentage-of-brexit-voters-than-any-other-newspaper-new-research-says/

Anecdotal evidence regarding individuals of different types who voted this way or that is irrelevant. This is how these four or five ultra-wealthy newspaper proprietors have steered the future of our country.

In your analysis of voting differences you missed out:
The level of higher education in an area was far more important than age, gender, the number of immigrants, or income in predicting the way an area voted, the researchers found.
Age and gender were both significant but not as important as education level, the researchers found. Income and number of immigrants in an area were not found to be a significant factor in how people voted.
The Independent

I’ll say this for you Varian you’re not a quitter!

Though posters should realise.....it’s over, we will shortly be leaving the dratted/beloved EU and all this posturing and agonising about newspapers and IQ’s is quite futile.
Time to look to the future instead of chaining ourselves to the past Behemoth of the EU.

Its not futile if it makes people think about why this country is bankrupting itself . You may think it’s all going swimmingly and everything you wish for is coming to pass perfectly, but some of us see a divided country which has a weak government in a political mess.

It’s divided at the moment ( by some) but after we leave things will settle down.
We are not ‘bankrupting ourselves’ at all.
It was always going to take time ( whatever anyone said) to sort out, it’s a time of great change and great possibilities.

Always the optimist, lemon. I, too, don't see things 'settling down' if we do actually leave. Or if we don't.