Regret it Brexit Part 2

Remaining in the EU isn't an option due to the referendum result and TM has stated on numerous occasions that "brexit means brexit". That only leaves walking away with no deal and is that really what people want?

Well said Smileless

My son was hot under the collar regarding the Airbus issue - like the whole world was about to collapse.

I too wonder about motives, timing and the political leanings of the airbus executives.

In discussion with son, several people pointed out that 'considering' and 'thinking about' were operative words in the statement and many wondered if holding the government to ransom ever passed through their minds?

I too find it amazing that we aren't all pulling together to make Brexit happen as smoothly as possible.

I would also back the government 100% if the "no deal is better than a bad deal" was the final result of negotiations with EU officials and I know many, many people who feel the same way.

We will be leaving the EU. The future is not ours to see, All is not well in member states, financially, politically and socially. There is much unrest.

Those factors also need to be considered. The EU may not exist ten years down the line. I and the majority of those who got to vote in the referendum have no desire to become part of a European federation or to keep propping up this failed social and political experiment. The cracks in the EU are widening all the time.

I expect Airbus financiers and accountants are also "considering" and "thinking about" that prospect too.

I forgot to add we are propping up the failed social and political experiment that is the EU (trade is only a part of the deal) with BILLIONS (not millions - billions!) of taxpayers money every single year - lest we forget.

Oh, and in business circles, please find someone responsible for a huge account who would throw money at a bad deal?

Is there a business person alive who'd willingly accept and pay out for a BAD DEAL, in any sphere?

No.

Why should the UK?

Day6 thank you and good post.

Grandad but what is there for the electorate to agree on? If the deal isn't acceptable the only alternative is to walk away, remaining in the EU isn't an option so is that what you mean? That there will be an overall acceptance of walking away with no no deal, if the deal on the table isn't accepted?

* Varian*
Where would these 'long border checks' be taking place as most of the manufactured goods go out by their own Beluga planes from the airport which is just a spit away from the plant. It's not exactly Heathrow!
The biggest wings go by sea.

Surely the wings could fly by themselves?

Day6, Airbus has a huge site in North Bristol employing several thousand along with all the suppliers to that manufacturing and development establishment.

The "head in the sand" leavers continually just love to play fast and lose with other peoples jobs.

Tell us Day6, why would Airbus want to stay in Britain if there are delays at ports and tarrifs to pay on aircraft parts going backwards and forwards to France.

Airbus main assembly plant is in France, therefore the wing and other parts assembly made in Britain could easily be transferred there.

If they take their ball home are we going to cancel the very lucrative defence contracts that we give them.
Personally I think it's a touch of De Gaul once again. He didn't want us in in the first place and thought that we would be crushed. Airbus think they will do they same, they don't know us.

Grandad1943
I know your trying to ignore the fact, but it is a fact that there are no tariffs on civil aircraft parts only military parts.

petra, head in sand again. De Gaul is dead, his era is dead and it ain't coming back.

We live in a very different integrated Europe these days, and with Donald Trump cranking up a trade war with the rest of the world, now is not the time to be leaving the largest free trade area on the planet and go all on our own to who knows where.

Petra and BMW no tarrifs on their parts also. In regard to Airbus tarrifs along with all other producers, the EU could change the tarrifs policy at any time they wish and being outside that organisation we would have no say in that whatsoever.

And the EU may well change their tarrifs policy in the face of a trade war with the United States.

Day6, Airbus has a huge site in North Bristol employing several thousand along with all the suppliers to that manufacturing and development establishment

I am aware of that Grandad.

Why do you imagine I haven't considered those implications?

You're sneering that Leavers have their heads in the sand. Again, an insulting elitist stance.

Airbus is 'thinking' and 'considering' its options, as are all firms who do business in Europe.

However, they too will play a waiting game, because, surprise, surprise, like every other being on this planet - they cannot predict the future or whether or not it is financially prudent to start again, abroad, with all it's associated costs and logistical implications.

They like all businesses are in it for the profits they make. That too will be a factor they will have to weigh up against the cost of moving, losing skilled employees, retraining abroad, foreign planning and building laws and regulations in other countries.

Let us not forget that the EU may well be cutting it's nose off its face in trying to make things difficult for British businesses. If their bluff is called and businesses diversify, go elsewhere and find other markets, many member states will also be quaking at the prospect of lost revenues and lost markets.

It's a two way street.

Have you even considered the turmoil, political, social and financial that exists within EU member states Grandad, or are you, like most Remainers, burying YOUR head in the sand regarding the Utopia you consider the EU?

Day6, it is not the EU that are making things difficult for Britain, as Britain is making it difficult for itself by way of this governments ineptitude in the negotiations.

Politically the European Union has its problems mainly due to the immigration policy of Germany which has affected other countries. However, what ever happens to the politics of Europe no country has stated they wish to see the breakup of Europe as the world's largest trading block.

The above is yet another reason for the UK to remain in Europe as immigration was a very large factor in the Brexit vote. As it would seem that Angela Merkel must either change her immigration policy or get out of office the main reason for the Brexit vote may soon no longer exist.

Also if Germany loses again in the World Cup later today, Merkel could be out of office by Monday and everything could have changed.

Our glorious lads could also then be well on the way to lifting that trophy, Oh Joy, Oh Joy, nobody would care about Europe then for at least the next six months.

In fighting has been a major problem for the last 2 years and I'm convinced that a major factor is the desire to derail the negotiations in an effort to prevent Brexit.

The 'infighting' has been among members of May's own Cabinet who can't agree on what sort of 'Brexit' they want. so who is it, precisely, that is trying to derail negotiations and why?

Britain is not making things difficult for itself "by way of this governments ineptitude in the negotiations" Grandad, the difficulties are due to the negative may and maybe's regarding what might or might happen and the inability for all political party members to work together for the long term benefit of the country post Brexit.

Immigration may well have been a large factor in the Brexit vote but it wasn't the only one.

As you say petra, it's a two way street and unless a reasonable agreement can be reached, it wont only be Britain that will face difficulties.

Infighting hasn't just been happening within the Cabinet because agreement for what's wanted from Brexit can't be reached Mazie there's infighting within the Tory party, Labour and the Lib Dems because there are some who are trying to prevent Brexit from happening.

Let long time Leave campaigner and researcher, Dr Richard North, try to explain to Leavers the problem Airbus has:

In July 2008, *EASA issued its first Single Production Organisation Approval – and that was to Airbus fixed-wing manufacturing. Helicopters followed later. That means precisely what I wrote yesterday, that Airbus is regulated directly by EASA. It will not be directly affected by Brexit. It will remain regulated by EASA even after we leave the EU – the UK operations voluntarily adopting EU law and control in order to work as part of the Airbus conglomerate.

The problem comes with the 215 (or so) production organisations in the UK approved by the Civil Aviation Authority, many of which will supply Airbus, including GKN engineering which does much of the wing fabrication under contract to Airbus. Once the UK leaves the EU and becomes a third country, in order to keep supplying Airbus, they must re-apply directly to EASA for approval. Until they have regained that approval, they will no longer be able to deliver parts or assemblies for use in aircraft certified by EASA.

The potential for disruption is obvious, not least as the industry is asserting that parts approved by the CAA currently fitted to such aircraft will invalidate their airworthiness certificates, preventing them being flown until the parts are replaced or revalidated.

As regards new, post-Brexit approvals, it is bound to take EASA a while to deal with the applicants, especially as they cannot actually apply until the UK is a third country. That would suggest that there is bound to be some discontinuity, with Airbus unable to continue manufacturing aircraft for an unspecified period.

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86910

So, on 29th March 2019 Airbus construction grinds to a halt because the UK manufactured components they have been using will no longer be legal. (There is also some doubt about whether planes already in service which contain those components will be able to continue flying, but that's another of his blogs)

*EASA = European Air Safety Agency

Yes, there has been infighting all over the place, Smileless but it is the tory Cabinet which has sole responsibility for negotiations. Nobody else has any influence on them.

Neither Labour nor the LibDems (or the SNP or Plaid Cymru, come to that) were invited to have any input into Brexit (the DUP only have influence because May needs them to keep her tottering government going). Whatever is happening now is the total responsibility of May and her Cabinet.

So stop blaming everyone else. This is the tories' own ballsup, from start to finish.

Well said MaizieD the politics of it all in a nutshell.

She who calls the shots in Europe, Angela Merkel has called an emergency meeting tomorrow Re immigration. If she is outed, Brexit negotiations will take a very different turn.
The German car industry are very unhappy with the way things are going. Trump has threatened a 20% import tariff and we are second only to America with German car imports.

About 100,000 people fill streets in central London for anti-Brexit march

www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2018/jun/23/about-100000-people-central-london-anti-brexit-march-video

Meanwhile, hundreds attended a pro-Brexit counter-protest.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44586638

These numbers say a lot.

If we stay in Europe we can be part of the EU overall responce to any trade war with the United States. Britain could also be part of the EU responce to the huge wave of cheap steel and other goods from the China and other countries that will enter the world market due to Trumps tarrifs on those products.

Outside of Europe we will be little more than onlookers as the major trading blocks set their policies.

They certainly do Varian.

The Chinese steel is of low quality and only fit for building use and in U.K. is really only a threat toLiberty Steel which bought Tata’s Llanwern site. The good quality steel for things such as car manufacture continues to be made by Tata at Port Talbot and they have increased their production capacity etc. I assume that US makes both qualities of steel.
When it comes to the car industry if things go as bad as some forecasts say then not many people will be able to afford to buy or lease cars wherever they are made and not so many companies will be leasing them for their employees -so it is probably a problem which will have sorted itself and the imports will not be needed.