Deal or No Deal

What else do you expect from the same propagandists who called judges "enemies of the people", a phrase which has been used by totalitarian regimes the world over?

An oldish story but pertinent here, I think.

Boris Johnson may be one of the Leavers who scorned the Remain side for supposedly saying that leaving the EU would lead to WW3 (they didn't, it was BJ himself who put that spin on it) but he looks to be bent on making it come true. Perhaps it wasn't 'Remain lie' after all...

March 2018

The Foreign Secretary has been sent a letter, seen by The Independent, from 20 British MEPs in six different parties, including Mr Johnson’s own. They argue that the casual use of the language of “war and conflict” to describe talks with the UK’s allies is “dangerous”, undermines negotiations and does “not promote an image of a deep and special relationship, but a hostile one”.
......
Mr Johnson has repeatedly used warlike imagery and Second World War references when discussing talks, including last year telling EU leaders not to give the UK “punishment beatings” for Brexit “in the manner of some World War Two movie”.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-war-words-uk-image-british-meps-brexiteers-a8242541.html

The use of such language has been a significant factor in whipping up hatred of the EU.

We are now familiar with many terms which would have meant nothing to any of us a few years ago, but just because we constantly hear them it does not mean that we actually understand them - "No deal" is one.

Liam Fox, our so-called trade negotiator, has now said that leaving the EU with no deal is more likely than not. He should hang his head in shame.

We can look forward to all those lovely trade deals that Dr Fox will negotiate. Somehow I think he'll do a David Davis and jump ship.

seen by the Independent from 20 uk MEPs
So the other 53 didn't agree.

I don't see how you reach that conclusion, petra.

Of course, some of them are UKIP MEPs so they'll cheer Boris on.

How Australia's meat industry plans to flood post-Brexit Britain with products banned in EU- Campaigners and farmers concerned by removal of 'technical barriers' to trade with Australia that could cause influx of lower quality products

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-meat-banned-eu-australia-beef-liam-fox-dit-friends-of-the-earth-a8475006.html

Now here is another horrible effect of brexit, but just this once it can never harm me. I don't eat meat. I'm not going to be harmed by chlorinated chicken from the USA either. If the nonsense that is brexit is ever allowed to happen, I predict a lot more people will become vegetarians.

Have we all got it in for the French?
I've just been reading how france has been ignored in the European unions effort to create new shipping routes linking Ireland with northan Europ.
The commission has bypassed French ports so freight from Ireland will go to Rotterdam,Antwerp and Zeebrugge.
And now a friend has called in from taking a delivery to London Gateway and there's lots of talk about diverting freight away from Dover/ Calais to the east coast ports that go to Belgium, Holland.
Macron won't be happy.

Britain would run out of food on this date next year if it cannot continue to easily import from the EU and elsewhere after Brexit, the National Farmers’ Union has warned.

Minette Batters, the NFU president, urged the government to put food security at the top of the political agenda after the prospect of a no-deal Brexit was talked up this week.

“The UK farming sector has the potential to be one of the most impacted sectors from a bad Brexit – a frictionless free trade deal with the EU and access to a reliable and competent workforce for farm businesses is critical to the future of the sector,” she said.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/07/uk-run-out-of-food-no-deal-brexit-national-farmers-union

Meanwhile leading companies, including the engineers Arup, the accountants KPMG and lawyers Freshfields, increased pressure in the other direction. They warned of dire consequences if Mrs May’s deal is not closer to the EU than many expect.

The Professional and Business Services Council has sent a letter to the prime minister signed by a host of professional services firms including law, accountancy, consultancy, architecture, surveying and advertising, which collectively represent 4.6 million jobs and contributes £188 billion in gross value.

The letter is significant because, unusually, named representatives from specific firms have signed it, and it also calls on Mrs May to go further than many expect.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-s-brexit-peace-offer-sparks-tory-infighting-kvbvgvp5b

Ulster says no – to no deal

Two headline messages emerged, both of which should be noted by the UK and Irish governments and the political parties in Northern Ireland.

We found little public support in Northern Ireland for the consequences of a no deal outcome for the border. This scenario would mean a hard north-south border, physical checks, maintained by the UK, without specific compensation for the costs after Brexit take place. Overall support for this was estimated at an average of 34%. While the low level of nationalist support for this option was to be expected, it was also the least favoured option for unionists at an average of 44%.

theconversation.com/new-brexit-poll-finds-a-plan-for-the-irish-border-both-unionists-and-nationalists-can-agree-on-99266

Why would you choose to come to a country which is desperate to reduce the number of foreigners, and which has prioritised reducing rights for the 3.6 million EU citizens living in the UK instead of fulfilling its promise that nothing would change for them?”

twitter.com/IanDunt

I signed the online petition the People's Voice

Many of Wales' fishermen will "not survive" a Brexit no deal, it has been claimed.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-45221262

"What of the “taking back control” dream, our navy chasing foreign boats from our waters? Impossible, when 80% of UK fish is sold in the EU, which would retaliate with prohibitive tariffs and delaying checks at Calais to let fish rot on the quay. Bremerhaven is just one port eager to seize our fish-processing business, which employs 18,000 people. Consider what a trade war would do to the Scottish smoked salmon industry, worth more than all of the UK fishing industry.

At sea, the Brexiteers are coming face to face with hard truths: we are not alone. No man is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent. We trade, we exchange, we buy and sell. Fish was a bad emblem for the hard Brexiteers to choose because it’s an archetypal example of the need for cooperation – in fishing, conservation and sales. Trade-offs, haggling, deals and environmental necessity demand treaties between us and our neighbours, in or out of the EU. Except that outside it, our negotiators have a weak hand. The romance of the sea was good referendum propaganda; now it stands as the best example of why standing alone is impossible."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/23/propaganda-brexit-fish-eu-britain-fishing-rights

David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, has insisted that the EU faces a binary choice between the government’s “Chequers plan” and a no-deal Brexit.

Speaking to French business leaders on Wednesday afternoon, Mr Lidington said there would not be time to draw up any alternative options.

www.ft.com/content/2f9762ac-ab99-11e8-94bd-cba20d67390c

This is scandalous and criminally irresponsible/

The government is saying that the country must suffer a bad deal or an even worse deal because "there is no time" to do what is best for the country - ie to accept that the best future for us all is to remain in the EU????

Criminally irresponsible.

Austerity and low wages are bad enough for many people before no deal costs households up to £1,000 a year

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/30/struggling-families-no-deal-brexit-add-worries

Did anybody catch the latest news conference from Barnier and Raab a few minutes ago? It was on Sky News but the BBC did not show it live.

It is looking a little more promising when Barnier says :

The EU is prepared to build an ambitious partnership with the Uniuted Kingdom "

They covered various subjects and whatever side of the argument you fall on it may hold some answers to the questions that have been ongoing , daily for 2 years now.

Europe is the birthplace of the enlightenment and modern science. Even in the 20th century, fundamental discoveries that transformed our understanding of the world from quantum mechanics and relativity to genes and the structure of DNA came from Europe. These discoveries paved the way for modern technology and transformed our lives.

Yet by the time I had to choose where to go to graduate school in the early 1970s, the USA had become the top destination of choice for young scientists. This relative decline was only reversed after decades of close scientific cooperation between European countries. Being part of the EU has played a huge role in the UK becoming a global scientific powerhouse and a magnet for talent. That success is now at risk.

Leaving the EU without a deal poses a very real threat to scientific progress, damaging innovation and the economy, the NHS, and our overall future. UK science has little or nothing to gain from Brexit but plenty to lose.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-no-deal-science-the-royal-society-venki-ramakrishnan-a8471326.html

The number of flights between the UK and Spain could collapse by 95% if no Brexit deal is agreed, the air travel industry’s global trade body has warned.

Travel for tourists, business and cargo will all be significantly affected in a “no deal” scenario, according to a report prepared for the International Air Transport Association (Iata), which represents 290 airlines around the world.

The route between Spain and the UK is particularly at risk because of the size of both markets, as well as the large volume of tourist traffic between the two countries. IATA figures show there are currently 5,052 UK-Spain flights a week.

Alexandre de Juniac, Iata’s director general and chief executive, warned that a no-deal Brexit could lead to “thousands, millions of passengers” potentially grounded at airports after the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019.

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/24/no-deal-brexit-would-halt-most-uk-spain-flights-industry-says

Normally when the majority vote is as thin as the one in the referendum, those in power do their best to reach a compromise agreement that gives both sides some of what they want but not all. This seems to be entirely lacking in this case.

If I hear one more Conservative politician saying the British People have voted for Brexit, when a bare half of them did so. I shall........................, I wish I could think of something to do that would affect those cloth-eared blockheads

A few days either side and the vote could have gone either way.

Only yesterday came a chilling warning that Britain will “pay the price” of a no-deal Brexit because complicated new border controls may not be ready in time. A report from the National Audit Office declared that thousands of UK exporters did not have enough time to prepare for new border rules.

www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/bill-jamieson-brexit-could-make-uk-federal-state-with-co-pm-sturgeon-1-4819533

Research at the University of Oxford, found that Brexit -any kind of brexit-could have a serious toll on the lifetime prospects of young people.

Using Government leaked analysis (the Cross Whitehall Briefing), the impact of Brexit on accumulated lifetime earnings was calculated. The civil service analysis predicted an economic hit under all models of Brexit, and the research estimated the following losses in accumulated income for young people:

• A WTO-terms Brexit would cost young people around £76,000 each in lost earnings by 2050, and could cost up to £108,000 in a worst case scenario. The best case scenario would be £44,000 of lost wages.
• An FTA-style Brexit would cost around £51,000 (the model predicted a range £30,000 -£72,000).
• Under an EEA-style Brexit, young people would lose around £20,000 in accumulated lost earnings from now to 2050 (range between £7,000 in a best case scenario and £32,000 in a worst case scenario)

The governmental model sits in the middle of the range of optimistic and pessimistic forecasts. The analysis applied a study produced by LSE academics and the NIESR to young people. Weighting the results by the sectors young people predominately work in, it found that:

• The immediate term loss of income from a Chequers style Brexit would be around £400 a year for 18-21 year olds, and around £500 a year for 22-29 year olds, compared to a soft Brexit.
• Under a WTO-deal, 18-21 year-olds would lose around £675 a year, and 22-29 year olds £830 a year, compared to a soft Brexit.

d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ofoc/pages/167/attachments/original/1540483927/REPORT-latest.pdf?1540483927

The short-term impact of a no-deal Brexit on Britain’s economy would be “chaotic and severe”, jeopardising jobs and disrupting trade links, warn experts from the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/02/no-deal-brexit-study-warns-of-severe-short-term-impact-on-uk

Varian
I know you like a quote from Politico but have you seen their latest poll. And by latest I don't mean 18 months ago ( the Guardian article) but since the budget.
52% either not buying the warning that leaving the eu without a deal would negatively impact spending on public services or saying reduced public spending would be a price worth paying
So with all the warnings given out the situation is exactly the same as at June 24th 2016.