Research at the University of Oxford, found that Brexit -any kind of brexit-could have a serious toll on the lifetime prospects of young people.
Using Government leaked analysis (the Cross Whitehall Briefing), the impact of Brexit on accumulated lifetime earnings was calculated. The civil service analysis predicted an economic hit under all models of Brexit, and the research estimated the following losses in accumulated income for young people:
• A WTO-terms Brexit would cost young people around £76,000 each in lost earnings by 2050, and could cost up to £108,000 in a worst case scenario. The best case scenario would be £44,000 of lost wages.
• An FTA-style Brexit would cost around £51,000 (the model predicted a range £30,000 -£72,000).
• Under an EEA-style Brexit, young people would lose around £20,000 in accumulated lost earnings from now to 2050 (range between £7,000 in a best case scenario and £32,000 in a worst case scenario)
The governmental model sits in the middle of the range of optimistic and pessimistic forecasts. The analysis applied a study produced by LSE academics and the NIESR to young people. Weighting the results by the sectors young people predominately work in, it found that:
• The immediate term loss of income from a Chequers style Brexit would be around £400 a year for 18-21 year olds, and around £500 a year for 22-29 year olds, compared to a soft Brexit.
• Under a WTO-deal, 18-21 year-olds would lose around £675 a year, and 22-29 year olds £830 a year, compared to a soft Brexit.
d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ofoc/pages/167/attachments/original/1540483927/REPORT-latest.pdf?1540483927