Deal or No Deal

Anyone thinking that a "no-deal" brexit would be absolutely fine should read this article in the Economist

"The truth about a no-deal Brexit- time to bust the last great Brexit myth"

www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

I've just listened to a brexit item on PM on Radio 4.

The interviewer Evan Davies, asked Tory MP and Prisons Minister Rory Stewart a question about our options. I have always thought Rory Stewart was one of the less objectionable Tories, but I was appalled at the way he answered. He said something like "if I was chairing a meeting I might ask "how many want a Peoples Vote?" and ten hands would go up, so then I'd ask how many want to leave with "no deal" and fifty or sixty hands would go up. So then I would realise that the majority were in favour of Theresa May's deal"

Now I haven't been able to check this as it is not yet on i-player, but that was the gist of it.

The fact is that something like 54% of the population currently support a People's Vote with the option to Remain and more than 50% would vote Remain. Those who would support a "no-deal brexit" are probably the minority of Leavers.

This total distortion of the true balance of opinion was not challenged by Evan Davies who seems to be following the party line of the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation, which has been complicit from the start in foisting this brexit nonsense on us. I am very disappointed in Evan Davies.

It is time that we had some fair and true reporting of this fiasco.

It is almost certain that this "deal" will be unpopular all round.

The Moggites will vote it down because they want a chaotic "jump off the cliff" no-deal brexit so they and their ultra-rich friends can cash in at everyone else's expense.

The Liberal Democrats, the SNP, most Labour MPs and a good number of Tories will reject it because it leaves us far worse off than we are now as members of the world's biggest and most successful trading block.

Um. ' Vote it down ' like the lib Dems and Labour?

Tory MP and Vice Chairman of the so-called "European Research Group (Moggites) has announced that if the "deal" is based on TM's Checkers plan he and his gang will vote it down.

I love his name - Mark Francois

But I can't say I like anything else about him or his nasty little gang.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkShcuexwik

The consultancy Oliver Wyman estimates that the life sciences industry would face an increase in costs of 5%. Much of this could be passed on to the NHS – and even this is under a ‘mitigated’ no deal scenario. For prices more widely, higher than expected inflation linked to the 10% drop in sterling after the EU referendum seems to have added around £500 million to the deficits of NHS trusts in England alone in 2016/17. A drop of up to 20% in the event of a no deal Brexit could be similarly felt. Costs for special supply flights and stockpiling, too, would be likely to be passed on to the public sector in one way or another.

Then there are those medium and longer-term impacts of a no deal scenario. The British pharmaceutical and life sciences industry is likely to take a heavy blow as exports suffer from all the barriers described above. NHS staff and patients crossing the Irish border, including for life-saving heart treatment, will suddenly run into a hard border. UK retirees in the EU will suddenly find they lose access to the reciprocal health care schemes tentatively agreed last year, and may have to return at a cost that we estimated could hit £500 million each year.

Given all this would come immediately after another winter of financial pressure and strained bed capacity, we could expect the months around a no deal Brexit to be among the most difficult in the 70-year history of the NHS.

The good news? These consequences of crashing out without a deal, which would be reflected in almost every other sector of life in Britain and in nearby EU countries as well, are so sobering that it is difficult to believe either side will really dare to go over the edge.

Dayan M (2018) "Over the edge: a no deal Brexit and the NHS", Nuffield Trust comment.

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/over-the-edge-a-no-deal-brexit-and-the-nhs

You can't go on saying Britain only wants to be in the single market as it no longer exists. We have our own currency and much more besides. People are cared for, can be looked after if they fall ill in another country. The Uk had a unique position in this haveing their own currency and benefitting from a huge export market.
Extras will no longer be offered so they will have to make do with whatever the EU arranges. I don't think they will let it get so bad as to be a no deal.
Even thousands marching is not a democratic act in a country of 60 millions. It shows the desperation of some of the people and I hope they feel better for making the effort but it won't alter anything.
It is worrying for all of us the fact that medicines and other medical exports are travelling over the North Sea everyday in both directions. We can't go back to manufacturing everything ourselves

I hope common sense prevails and a deal can be settled on,
even of it does mean I have to travel alongside hundreds of lorries everytine I go to visit DD2 and family.

If Britain leaves the European Union with no deal in place to govern trade with its biggest partner, it will fall back on World Trade Organisation rules. The same set of rules would apply to EU countries and non-EU trade partners. This is why the UK government has published a series of “technical notices” detailing preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

Here are seven reasons that sum up why a no-deal Brexit and defaulting to WTO rules would be bad for British businesses and the wider economy.

theconversation.com/no-deal-seven-reasons-why-a-wto-only-brexit-would-be-bad-for-britain-102009

Some of the UK's most prestigious museums could be forced to cancel exhibitions if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal, according to a batch of secret memos.

Major visitor attractions such as the Victoria and Albert Museum, the Natural History Museum and the National Museums of Liverpool have expressed grave concerns about the costs of importing foreign artworks, falling tourist numbers and staffing shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

A memo from the V&A to the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport warned it could be compelled to close its doors temporarily as 44 per cent of customer service staff are EU nationals, and claimed that recruitment difficulties could hamper its plans for a new venue in Stratford. The South Kensington-based attraction also said it could face up to £25m import costs on its loans for future exhibitions.

Papers from the Natural History Museum said it could be left £2m out of pocket through a loss of research funding, while an estimated 15 per cent decline in foreign tourists could cost £2.4m.

The Royal Museums Greenwich said a chaotic exit could mean shipment of art items are twice as costly in the short term, while the National Museums Liverpool warned that visa and customs issues could affect costs and timings for programmes.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-museums-no-deal-memo-uk-natural-history-eu-nationals-a8610796.html

A no-deal brexit would threaten cancer treatments, food and medicine supplies, insurance policies, and the functioning of the NHS, as well as the existence of entire industries within the UK. Here are just some of the things that could happen if May fails to secure a Brexit deal.

Most people take the day-to-day functioning of the NHS for granted. But the flow of medical supplies — cancer medicines, vaccines, clinical devices, and blood — are dependent on complex supply chains across Europe which are designed to be traded within the single market. In a leaked letter between NHS chiefs reported this week, Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England, warned: "Public health and disease control coordination could also suffer, and our efforts to reassure, retain and attract the European workforce on which the NHS relies could also be jeopardized."

Around 45 million packs of medicine go from the UK to Europe every month and 37 million packs travel in the opposite direction. Every single one of those needs to be licensed and tested and certified by the European medicines regulator.

uk.businessinsider.com/no-deal-brexit-could-destroy-britain-2018-6/#the-nhs-could-run-out-of-drugs-1

MaizieD, many thanks for the link and extract from it in your above post.

One of our Assignment Controllers attended a briefing given on Monday evening given by the Driver an Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA) on the more ridged enforcement of heavy vehicle axle weights in Europe.

Many of the West Country hauliers where in attendance and a there was much discussion on what may well happen in a "no deal" Brexit at the end of the presentation.

There was much genuine concern in regard to the future of their businesses among the hauliers at the meeting with some planning to transfer their vehicles over to the continent in what has become known as "flagging out".

Of course, the British drivers will not be able to go with the vehicles and will therefore face redundancy, and there will also be the problem of finding European drivers willing to operate those right hand drive vehicles.

However, the above demonstrates just how desperate many in the road transport industry have become regarding the future of the industry in Britain.

A very sad situation indeed in what is one of the UK's most efficient industries and largest employers.

@Grandad

I don't know if you read this blog already, Grandad but with your interest in transport and logistics I though you might like to see it:

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87040

Dr North is a long time campaigner for leaving the EU. His analyses of the effects of leaving with no deal (which he sees as increasingly likely) are at least informed by years of study .

In my opinion, it makes sense to take a pessimistic view and then to double down on that to expect far worse than the high-level pundits are predicting. And the reason for this is that the trading infrastructure of the UK is far more fragile than we are led to believe, and far less capable of withstanding the shocks of a "no deal" Brexit than is generally assumed.

Some clues to this come in a report which has received no media attention from Felixstowe-base hauliers James Kemball...

Headed "UK Container Transport Crisis 2018", this points to a UK container transport industry currently at crisis point, evidenced in recent weeks with major disruption to supply chains during this year's peak season period

The essential point here, from the Brexit perspective, is that many of the more optimistic pundits, confronted with warnings of disruption to the ro-ro traffic passing through the Dover-Calais route, argue that the slack can be picked up by other ports and, where there is a shortfall in ro-ro capacity, goods can be diverted into shipping containers and handled by the container ports..

But, even if swapping routes and transport modes is theoretically possible, the Kemball report suggests that an industry on the brink would not be able to cope with the additional traffic, on top of the disturbance and delays brought about by newly implemented border controls.

And lots more....

All that the poll result tells me, Petra is that large numbers of the general public are as clueless as they were on 23rd June 2016.

Varian
I know you like a quote from Politico but have you seen their latest poll. And by latest I don't mean 18 months ago ( the Guardian article) but since the budget.
52% either not buying the warning that leaving the eu without a deal would negatively impact spending on public services or saying reduced public spending would be a price worth paying
So with all the warnings given out the situation is exactly the same as at June 24th 2016.

The short-term impact of a no-deal Brexit on Britain’s economy would be “chaotic and severe”, jeopardising jobs and disrupting trade links, warn experts from the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/02/no-deal-brexit-study-warns-of-severe-short-term-impact-on-uk

Research at the University of Oxford, found that Brexit -any kind of brexit-could have a serious toll on the lifetime prospects of young people.

Using Government leaked analysis (the Cross Whitehall Briefing), the impact of Brexit on accumulated lifetime earnings was calculated. The civil service analysis predicted an economic hit under all models of Brexit, and the research estimated the following losses in accumulated income for young people:

• A WTO-terms Brexit would cost young people around £76,000 each in lost earnings by 2050, and could cost up to £108,000 in a worst case scenario. The best case scenario would be £44,000 of lost wages.
• An FTA-style Brexit would cost around £51,000 (the model predicted a range £30,000 -£72,000).
• Under an EEA-style Brexit, young people would lose around £20,000 in accumulated lost earnings from now to 2050 (range between £7,000 in a best case scenario and £32,000 in a worst case scenario)

The governmental model sits in the middle of the range of optimistic and pessimistic forecasts. The analysis applied a study produced by LSE academics and the NIESR to young people. Weighting the results by the sectors young people predominately work in, it found that:

• The immediate term loss of income from a Chequers style Brexit would be around £400 a year for 18-21 year olds, and around £500 a year for 22-29 year olds, compared to a soft Brexit.
• Under a WTO-deal, 18-21 year-olds would lose around £675 a year, and 22-29 year olds £830 a year, compared to a soft Brexit.

d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ofoc/pages/167/attachments/original/1540483927/REPORT-latest.pdf?1540483927

Only yesterday came a chilling warning that Britain will “pay the price” of a no-deal Brexit because complicated new border controls may not be ready in time. A report from the National Audit Office declared that thousands of UK exporters did not have enough time to prepare for new border rules.

www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/bill-jamieson-brexit-could-make-uk-federal-state-with-co-pm-sturgeon-1-4819533

Normally when the majority vote is as thin as the one in the referendum, those in power do their best to reach a compromise agreement that gives both sides some of what they want but not all. This seems to be entirely lacking in this case.

If I hear one more Conservative politician saying the British People have voted for Brexit, when a bare half of them did so. I shall........................, I wish I could think of something to do that would affect those cloth-eared blockheads

A few days either side and the vote could have gone either way.

The number of flights between the UK and Spain could collapse by 95% if no Brexit deal is agreed, the air travel industry’s global trade body has warned.

Travel for tourists, business and cargo will all be significantly affected in a “no deal” scenario, according to a report prepared for the International Air Transport Association (Iata), which represents 290 airlines around the world.

The route between Spain and the UK is particularly at risk because of the size of both markets, as well as the large volume of tourist traffic between the two countries. IATA figures show there are currently 5,052 UK-Spain flights a week.

Alexandre de Juniac, Iata’s director general and chief executive, warned that a no-deal Brexit could lead to “thousands, millions of passengers” potentially grounded at airports after the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019.

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/24/no-deal-brexit-would-halt-most-uk-spain-flights-industry-says

Europe is the birthplace of the enlightenment and modern science. Even in the 20th century, fundamental discoveries that transformed our understanding of the world from quantum mechanics and relativity to genes and the structure of DNA came from Europe. These discoveries paved the way for modern technology and transformed our lives.

Yet by the time I had to choose where to go to graduate school in the early 1970s, the USA had become the top destination of choice for young scientists. This relative decline was only reversed after decades of close scientific cooperation between European countries. Being part of the EU has played a huge role in the UK becoming a global scientific powerhouse and a magnet for talent. That success is now at risk.

Leaving the EU without a deal poses a very real threat to scientific progress, damaging innovation and the economy, the NHS, and our overall future. UK science has little or nothing to gain from Brexit but plenty to lose.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-no-deal-science-the-royal-society-venki-ramakrishnan-a8471326.html

Did anybody catch the latest news conference from Barnier and Raab a few minutes ago? It was on Sky News but the BBC did not show it live.

It is looking a little more promising when Barnier says :

The EU is prepared to build an ambitious partnership with the Uniuted Kingdom "

They covered various subjects and whatever side of the argument you fall on it may hold some answers to the questions that have been ongoing , daily for 2 years now.

Austerity and low wages are bad enough for many people before no deal costs households up to £1,000 a year

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/30/struggling-families-no-deal-brexit-add-worries

David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, has insisted that the EU faces a binary choice between the government’s “Chequers plan” and a no-deal Brexit.

Speaking to French business leaders on Wednesday afternoon, Mr Lidington said there would not be time to draw up any alternative options.

www.ft.com/content/2f9762ac-ab99-11e8-94bd-cba20d67390c

This is scandalous and criminally irresponsible/

The government is saying that the country must suffer a bad deal or an even worse deal because "there is no time" to do what is best for the country - ie to accept that the best future for us all is to remain in the EU????

Criminally irresponsible.

"What of the “taking back control” dream, our navy chasing foreign boats from our waters? Impossible, when 80% of UK fish is sold in the EU, which would retaliate with prohibitive tariffs and delaying checks at Calais to let fish rot on the quay. Bremerhaven is just one port eager to seize our fish-processing business, which employs 18,000 people. Consider what a trade war would do to the Scottish smoked salmon industry, worth more than all of the UK fishing industry.

At sea, the Brexiteers are coming face to face with hard truths: we are not alone. No man is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent. We trade, we exchange, we buy and sell. Fish was a bad emblem for the hard Brexiteers to choose because it’s an archetypal example of the need for cooperation – in fishing, conservation and sales. Trade-offs, haggling, deals and environmental necessity demand treaties between us and our neighbours, in or out of the EU. Except that outside it, our negotiators have a weak hand. The romance of the sea was good referendum propaganda; now it stands as the best example of why standing alone is impossible."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/23/propaganda-brexit-fish-eu-britain-fishing-rights

Many of Wales' fishermen will "not survive" a Brexit no deal, it has been claimed.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-45221262