President Trump is intent on completing a border wall with Mexico, even if it means instigating a trade war with the U.S.'s second-biggest export market. His spokesman said Wednesday that the U.S. might levy a blanket 20 percent tax on Mexican imports as one way of fulfilling Trump's campaign promise that Mexico would pay for the wall.
Trump promotes the notion that migrants have been flooding across an insecure border, and taking jobs that would otherwise go to Americans. To be sure, there are indeed millions of unauthorized immigrants working in the U.S., though economists are divided on whether the contributions to the economy they make ultimately create more job opportunities for U.S. citizens. The Pew Research Center estimates that “the U.S. civilian workforce included 8 million unauthorized immigrants in 2014, accounting for 5% of those who were working or were unemployed and looking for work.”
And the largest chunk of those unauthorized immigrants are indeed from Mexico, which is the clear target of the wall, along with other Central American countries.
But since a tipping point in 2012, the net flow of migration from Mexico, both legal and not, has actually decreased. From 2009 to 2014, Pew estimates that 1 million Mexicans and their families (including U.S.-born children) left the U.S., while 870,000 Mexicans arrived.
The numbers are estimates, of course, because the flow of unauthorized migration across the U.S.-Mexico border is, by its nature, surreptitious. Pew uses a modeling tool that draws from various sources, including Mexico’s national household survey, to make its best estimate.
www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/27/even-before-trump-more-mexicans-were-leaving-the-us-than-arriving/?utm_term=.b87230b5794b