We should have gone for an orderly, plannned Leave on WTO terms right at the start
I don't know how many times trade experts have to tell us that WTO is the worst possible deal for the penny to drop. WTO is what nations fall back onto if they have no better deals. That's why they try to get away from them as fast as they possibly can. You don't do 'deals' with WTO.
And WTO does not comprehensively cover services, which are our prime export.
You're right that we should have gone for an orderly planned leave, but there was no 'plan' and the tories have been fighting about it ever since. The leave campaigners had no plan because they couldn't articulate one, much less one that they all agreed on; they took a deliberate decision not to offer any sort of plan because fighting about the different ideas they had would dilute their message. So they concentrated on negatives, heightening fears and revving up hatred for the EU (as I said in an earlier post on this thread)
This is how one of our top Civil Servants, who had considerable experience of dealing with the EU (and who May pretty rapidly sacked because his advice was unpalatable to her) recently analysed the situation:
The Institute of Economic Affairs indeed offered a large prize, once David Cameron’s Bloomberg speech had dangled the realistic prospect of a referendum to decide whether to stay or leave, to help define an agreed destination and exit path. Because they could see the looming crisis over what on earth Brexiteers could ever coalesce around both as the destination and the path to reach it.
But the winner’s model was quietly, rapidly – and, I might add, sensibly, given that it obviously did not work – buried.
And the most thoughtful sceptic attempts to map an exit route – embodied, I think, in a lengthy tome called Flexcit, which is a genuine, serious attempt at least to grapple with what insider experts knew were inordinately complex issues - were spurned by the mainstream Brexiteers, despite some brief dabbling by the likes of Owen Paterson
.
Why? I am afraid that is simple.
Because as soon as you have to define what you really DO want post Brexit, as opposed to what you don’t want, and as soon as you have to map out a genuinely viable very complex path to exiting an organisation you have been part of for 45 years, and which has inserted itself in every domain of UK life – which is exactly what you most object to about it - the unity completely fragments, and small differences about where we actually want to go become large ones
Dominic Cummings, when chairing Vote Leave, shrewdly deliberately avoided proposing any plan and focussed the entire campaign on what it didn’t want, and ensuring that resonated with the maximum number of voters who might find Brexit appealing, but would have radically different ideas of what it would deliver for them.
The last thing he, or the political leaders of the campaign, wished to do was to set out a proposed destination, and a route map to reach it.
That would have completely torn the fragile coalition apart. And it would have exposed the desirability of the destination, in comparison with a status quo with which much of the public had very good reasons to feel unhappy, to close scrutiny.
It would have been unwise to disappoint people who were prepared to vote, for very different reasons, for Brexit -and I am not disparaging either the reasons or the people, I am just saying the reasons were often mutually contradictory - by specifying a clear destination which opponents could then have dismantled. Far better to keep the destination vague and to focus the assault on that people can see they do not like about the ancien regime.
Now, you either put your trust in the knowledge and expertise of civil servants, and their professional objectivity, or you, like many Leavers I have encountered on social media, scoff at them on the grounds that they are all Remainers and disbelieve everything they say.
It's a bit rich, really, to hear a Leaver suggest that expert negotiators and top civil service advice was what was needed from the start when the Leave leaders having been shouting for the last two years that they are all traitorous Remainers.
I suggest, yet again that people read the whole lecture themselves.
www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institute/sites/european-institute/files/sir_ivan_rogers_lecture_ucl_22012019.pdf