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Scottish Independence

(316 Posts)
Urmstongran Fri 15-Mar-19 19:33:08

In 2014, a national referendum was held in Scotland. Voters were asked: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

45% of voters answered yes and 55% answered no, with a turnout of 85%.

I am genuinely interested in the views now. How popular would independence be? After Brexit, is even the idea of a referendum flawed?

Caledonai14 Tue 26-Mar-19 16:39:58

Grrrr
pig's ear, not pigs' ear.

Don't know how that happened.

blush

POGS Wed 27-Mar-19 14:58:59

Granny 23 / Caledonian

So am I correct there are ways for Sturgeon and the SNP to call for a second Referendum without ' permission' from Westminster?

Genuine apologies if I am missing the point in your posts.

If that is true why don't they call for Referendum if as they say they know that is what the Scottish voter wants. If ever there was a time surely it is now.

Caledonai14 Wed 27-Mar-19 15:18:50

Not in the middle of this omnishambles. We haven't actually been dragged over the cliff yet.

POGS Wed 27-Mar-19 17:01:43

Caledonian

So it is all bravado , a swagger on the part of the SNP and Sturgeon when they say they would easy win a 2nd Referendum.

I would have thought Brexit was the best excuse for the SNP and even if we Remain in the EU and the status quo remains the same what other opinion could there be that is swagger?

Jalima1108 Wed 27-Mar-19 17:07:49

Perhaps you should have a referendum on whether or not all Scots are happy to fund another referendum.

THE direct cost to the taxpayer of the Scottish independence referendum is set to exceed £16m but the true total, including related and knock-on costs, may never been known.

Granny23 Wed 27-Mar-19 21:14:52

Surely that - approx, £3 a head - pales into insignificance when compared with the costs of Brexit Referendum, negotiations, "related and knock on costs" etc, etc, etc. and we are no further forward.

Although the pre Indy Ref VOW promised all sorts of goodies to Scotland if it remained in the UK, none of them materialised after No won, unlike the £££millions bribes paid to the DUP in advance, which have not even secured their loyalty.

Polling shows a majority of Scots favour having a 2nd referendum on Independence when the outcome of Brexit is known.

Jane10 Wed 27-Mar-19 21:54:11

SNP polling? Very valid!!

Caledonai14 Thu 28-Mar-19 00:23:22

Independence is not the main issue at the moment. Brexit is. None of us knows where we will be with that tomorrow, let alone next week or next month. At the moment, the shenannigans at Westminster are the priority as they - sadly - have the power.

I can't understand why anyone is making points about how much a second independence referendum would cost compared to all the millions spent so far on the Brexit debacle and the immense harm it has done in all directions.

Granny23 Thu 28-Mar-19 14:52:22

www.facebook.com/veryBrexitproblems/videos/788645794611275/UzpfSTEwMDAwMTA0MzQwMzUzMzoxMTUxNTczMjE1MDIyOTg2/

United we stand divided we fall.

(Beware! some sweary words)

Chucky Thu 28-Mar-19 15:20:35

Have been away for a few days, so only just read pops.
Granny23. “For those with only a casual interest in Scottish politics, it is perhaps relevant to note the composition of the Parliament.

Of 129 MSPs;

1 is the Presiding Officer
1 is an Independent
5 are LibDems
6 are Greens
23 are Labour
31 are Conservatives
62 are SNP

Simple arithmetic shows that there is therefore a pro Independence majority in the Parliament (6 Greens + 60 SNP = 66”

There may be a pro Independence majority, but this is NOT indicative of the people of Scotland! The SNP have lost seats in both Westminster and Holyrood in the 2 elections since the Scottish Independence referendum. We are part of the United Kingdom, which is of considerably more importance than being part of the EU. We have already voted on Scottish independence and the Scottish people DO NOT WANT IT.

paddyann Thu 28-Mar-19 16:21:25

Come on Chucky we all know Kezia telling Labour voters to vote Tory in marginal seats to "keep the SNP" out is the reason we lost seats in the last election ,its also the reason the tories rocketed to a full 22% ....2% lower than they had when their vote PLUMMETED to 24% during Maggie's reign as chief clown .Of course the MSM would have you believe we're all rampant Tories with wee Ruth as next FM......thank god we're not that gullible though there are many who choose to believe the crap they hear/read in the media .

muffinthemoo Thu 28-Mar-19 16:34:25

Three things

1 - I don't have a problem with the requirement of a supermajority for a major constitutional change and frankly we would not be in our current Brexit straits if that referendum had required a supermajority;

2 - Brexit, if it was coupled with very positive outreach from the EU about future Scottish membership would be a massive game changer in terms of any future indyref;

3 - The longer there is between referenda, the more the voting populace is changed by demographic change. Youngsters attain voting age. Older voters die. The body that voted No in 2014 will be qualitatively different from a body asked to consider the issue in say, 2024.

Jane10 Thu 28-Mar-19 17:02:33

Yes. Maybe that's why SNP is running down education and giving 16 year olds the vote!
However, after decades of SNP nonsense in trying to run the country maybe even more people will see the need to vote another resounding no!

Caledonai14 Thu 28-Mar-19 17:03:12

Thank you Paddyann and Muffinthemoo.

I had a lump in my throat watching this.

www.thenational.scot/news/17530456.watch-snp-mep-tells-eu-to-leave-a-light-on-for-scotland-to-find-our-way-home

and here's the important part if you don't have time to watch the clip

www.eureporter.co/frontpage/2019/03/28/leave-a-light-on-for-scotland-urges-alyn-smith-mep

I agree it would be a gamechanger for Indyref2, but the EU can't do anything until Westminster gets its act together ... and goodness knows when that will be.

Caledonai14 Thu 28-Mar-19 17:26:39

Oh Granny23, I just got round to looking at that clip. Very very funny and such a ring of truth! The sweary words are entirely appropriate but you were right to voice a warning. Thank you so much.

Chucky Thu 28-Mar-19 19:42:43

Caledonail4 “I had a lump in my throat watching this.

www.thenational.scot/news/17530456.watch-snp-mep-tells-eu-to-leave-a-light-on-for-scotland-to-find-our-way-home”

I had a lump in my throat too, choking with anger!!

So home to Scotland is the EU!!!
I voted to remain, but I’m bloody sure the EU is not home to this Scottish family!!!

I am not a rampant Tory, I’m actually someone who used to want Scottish Independence, but that’s what I wanted, INDEPENDENCE. Having matured I now see that the UK is stronger together.
This current push to be independent from England, Wales and Northern Ireland sickens me!! You don’t want to be part of that family, but want to be in bed with Bulgaria, Latvia, Slovakia etc!! This is the “new” Family you want? Honestly, is that what you really want, a home with these countries?
The SNP says Scotland is a wealthy country, who can manage without the rest of the U.K.!! However, you’re willing to share this “wealth” with a hoard of other countries who really don’t give a shit about us!

Can I also point out that of the main issues about Brexit has been the Irish border! Have any of you considered the Scotland/England border, which would have to be a hard border if we were in the EU without the rest of the UK, as it would be an external EU border?

I don’t want to have to have a passport or to have to change my money into Euro’s, to cross the border to visit my English and Welsh families.

Chucky Thu 28-Mar-19 19:46:00

*meant to say into pounds from Euros.

Caledonai14 Fri 29-Mar-19 09:38:15

I think if we can manage the Irish border we could manage the Scottish English border.

Please don't get angry about someone expressing a political opinion. I'm not angry about yours...just puzzled and sad. Oh, and a wee bit worried that any leaver is angry at present as you are very successfully and messily dragging Scotland out of the EU one way or the other.

On a much lighter note, it was amusing to hear the Scottish Secretary David Mundell on Radio Scotland this morning urging the SNP and Labour to "stop politicking" and get behind Mrs May's deal. Hmm.

Why would either party support a deal they don't want just to help Mrs May in the numbers game against her own ERG and the DUP?

And why are MPs repeatedly being expected to change their minds and their votes when people in the UK are denied the same?

Chucky Sat 30-Mar-19 17:02:16

Caledonail4 On a lighter note, I actually went to school with David Mundell. Didn’t like him then and certainly don’t like him now!

“I think if we can manage the Irish border we could manage the Scottish English border.” That has been a major issue and the reason the DUP have not been on board with leaving. No-one can’t find a suitable solution to the border, which would be even more difficult between Scotland and England!

You also say “why are MPs repeatedly being expected to change their minds and their votes when people in the UK are denied the same?” My answer to that is that people elect an MP to represent them and expect him/her to support their views! If a constituency voted to leave, their MP should respect their wishes and support leave, they should not ignore their constituents wishes for their own ones! I do think that a lot of MPs will get a shock when there is another General Referendum and may find themselves looking for employment elsewhere!

“Please don't get angry about someone expressing a political opinion.” Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and that is how it should be. As I have said many times I voted REMAIN in both the Scottish Independence and EU Elections! However, it is more important to me that Scotland remains part of the Union, than leaving or staying in the EU! It is even more important that the democratic result of both these elections is binding as we are just that, a “democracy!”
If the result of the Scottish Independence referendum was to leave the Union, would you be happy that the results were not followed through on? Would you be angry that the democratic result was not accepted? Would you want there to be another referendum a couple of years later to see if there would still be the same result? If the result was different, how would you feel? Would you be angry that the original result had been dismissed? Would you want a 3rd referendum?

Caledonai14 Sat 30-Mar-19 22:51:34

And if Scottish constituents voted by a majority to remain in the EU, their local MP should vote accordingly? Aye right.

It doesn't feel like democracy when the MPs go against the majority wishes, I quite agree.

It also doesn't feel fair to be denied citizenship of a peaceful, friendly trade block which has been advantageous to the part of the country where I stay (and where more than 60% voted to remain).

At the end of the day, all problems here are being caused by difficulties in the Tory party (we would have crashed out by now if they had stayed unified over their own leader's deal) and the thought of MPs being forced to go through a fourth meaningless vote while the clock is ticking down to disaster .... no, indeed, I'm not happy with that.

Granny23 Sun 31-Mar-19 11:09:58

Reported in The National

"STRIKING findings from a new poll have revealed the majority of Scots think the country will become independent – and believe there should be another referendum. It also found a significant number want to keep the pound after independence day.

In the survey of more than 2000 people who are “open-minded or undecided” on Scottish independence, 63% said they thought Scotland would become an independent country while 37% said they did not think it would happen.

Asked if they would vote for independence if they were convinced it would be good for the economy, 77% said they would, with just 5% saying they wouldn’t.

On currency after independence, 47% said Scotland should keep the pound in the long term, 23% thought the country should keep the pound in the short term before switching to a new Scottish currency when economic tests had been met, 14% were in favour of adopting the Euro and 6% wanted to switch to a Scottish currency in the short term.

The survey conducted by Survation for new polling and research organisation Progress Scotland found 61% thought there should be another referendum on Scottish independence with just 39% disagreeing.

However only 48% thought this would be likely within the next two years with 44% thinking it was unlikely. Asked if it was likely in the next five years, the majority (59%) said yes while 32% said it was unlikely.

Questioned on whether they thought independence would be good for the Scottish economy in the long run, 40% agreed, 17% disagreed, while nearly a third (30%) neither agreed nor disagreed and 12% said they didn’t know.

Regardless of which political party is in power, 74% said the Scottish Parliament/Government should have control over all decisions affecting people in Scotland with just 6% disagreeing. Progress Scotland has previously released findings that Brexit is now the most important issue determining views on an independence vote – up from 22% in 2014 to 43% today.

One fifth of respondents (21%) who voted in the 2014 Scottish referendum have changed how they would vote on Scottish independence or say they are not sure about how they would vote now."

Caledonai14 Sun 31-Mar-19 13:22:09

Thank you Granny23. That's roughly in line with what I'm hearing from previously undecided friends.

Some who were saying "Oh no, not another election or referendum" now think it might be the only way out of the current mess and there is a lot of resentment from Labour and SNP friends who think their MPs should not have to go against what their constituents voted for on Europe to make up numbers shortfall in the Tory ranks. (Many now think independence will come about naturally, eventually.)

I've also heard a few say independence -- with the probability of a Scotland-focussed Labour, SNP, LibDem or coalition government north of the Border -- has become a better option than being ruled from London by a shower of incompetent infighters who are prepared to change their own votes if they have a chance at Party leadership. Quite disgraceful.

Grammaretto Sun 31-Mar-19 14:13:11

Really?
Not another referendum please.
General election perhaps but why all these horrible 50/50 votes that are so divisive.
And in the case of Brexit impossible to unwind.
I have friends in almost all the political parties and I also have friends who work in the Scottish oil industry and they tell me there is a recession. I believe them. One has already lost his job and gone to work in the Middle East.
When the ship is sinking, should we carry on infighting or help eachother to the life boats?
Though we may have to build life boats first.......

paddyann Sun 31-Mar-19 14:57:07

THE SCOTTISH REALITY

We will take your oil but we will give you all our nuclear weapons.

We will not allow you to vote on matters in England but we will retain the powers to vote and decide on all matters in Scotland whether devolved or otherwise if we deem it necessary.

Your politicians that you elect are there to be ignored and outvoted at any time we choose.

You will never ever be handed the major keys for economic growth but we will give you some limited powers that we can claim you operate but are all really controlled by our sole determination of the “block grant” which should really be described as a partial repayment of the revenues you send us.

You will continually be in debt because we retain the powers to spend on your behalf even when that expenditure brings Scotland no benefit as it is spent outwith your country with nothing acruing to Scotland in return.

We fully intend to drag you from the EU against your wishes doing irreparable damage to many of your businesses and destroying your export led economy and tourism.

We will insist throughout all the above processes that you are “Better Together” being governed by us although we must concede we seem to have lost the plot recently with quite open hostility to all things Scottish. This happens to a colony that forgets who the masters are.

Gonna do something about? Now is not the time, get back in your box.

.If this is your idea of "democracy"chucky then I am aghast.The oil industry is not in recession ,the WM government is still selling licenses for new fields .There is a vast amount of oil in the seas around Scotland to be harvested ,fields in the west that haven't even been started yet.The last figues I saw said over 100 years of oil in the KNOWN fields .Its not about oil though ,its about a country being run by the people who know it and understand how it works .We are largely much more left leaning than the rUK ,that is clearly seen in the SNP majority .The SNP who have helped the people who NEED it not their buddies who are millionaries/billionaires like the tories do.God help us all if we're tethered to WM for much longer !!

Jane10 Sun 31-Mar-19 15:50:52

We all KNOW thats your opinion paddyann but unfortunately for you it's not one that's widely agreed on.