Project Fear- they said ...

As we already trade with the USA, China etc I’m not sure how the EU stops us doing that already? Oh I know, instead of buying Italian tinned tomatoes we will be buying American ones. Exciting.

No; I don' understand this idea that we don't trade with the rest of the world, because I've been buying cheap stuff made in China for years.

This was posted by a nurse, our generation, on a remain site today. I asked her permission to share and she was happy to agree.

' have just posted the last paragraph in inverted commas below on my personal timeline. I have a thirty year career in NHS commissioning - the system by which we secure free health care from various providers including private firms, charities etc. I am fairly neutral re party politics but we are seeing our welfare state being dismantled and the masses supporting it because they blame 'scroungers'. Please help see whats going on before its to late. Consider sharing the paragraph. Thank you.

"Provision of the NHS has always been partly private. Its not the services farage is after. Its our insurance system. National Insurance is a population wide risk sharing scheme. Its this that Farage and Aaron Banks want to run. Its nothing to do with selling things. Its to do with Aaron Banks selling you health insurance. If you can't afford it then you get inferior healthcare. WAKE UP."'

Labaik No-one is suggesting that we do not trade with the rest of the world but the EU has negotiated trade agreements with over 30 countries world wide that give EU members free access to their markets and, as an EU member, the UK has benefitted from these. Special trade relations with China date back to the 1970s

Once we come out of the EU we will no longer benefit from these advantagious treaties. In many of these countries we will be paying tariffs on our goods where the same EU products do not pay them at all, which immediately puts our products at a price disadvantage.

Then quite often there are quality agreements such as a country like China agreeing to accept without query all imported electrical goods that meet EU standards, while other goods have to be tested on arrival in China to see if they meet Chinese standards. We would be affected by this even if we keep the EU standards because the trade agreement only applies to EU countries. So all British goods would have to pay tariffs and possibly for retesting in China to meet Chinese standards. Once again increasing the cost of UK goods

Do you remember how, after the free trade agreement between EU members, but before EU agreed electrical standards, France willing accepted tape recorders, I think it was, made in other EU countries, but they all had to be sent to a French testing house as far from the ports and motorways as possible and each one had to be individually tested and approved, practically doubling the price of the imported tape recorders and pricing them out of the French market.

The other thing that can happen is that the EU will raise tariffs on our goods going into the EU and the EU is a major customer for British goods. We may well then set tariffs for EU goods coming into Britain, which will lead to prices going up. Crystaltips you could end up paying more for your tinned tomatoes because there is a tariff to be paid when we import them.

Here is an interesting link to the complexities of a no-deal Brexit and relying on WTO trade regulations. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872

Day6 Wed 05-Jun-19 14:11:01 before reading on from this I feel I must comment.

Where did you get the idea about joining all those countries? You addressed that comment to me but I never said any such thing. I do find it very hard to discuss with people who seem to make up their own interpretation of what others have said.

You don't seem to understand that our trade deals with many of those countries are because we are part of the EU. We will lose them all if we leave the EU. Can you give me a good reason why any of them would negotiate in our favour? The EU has already shown it doesn't need to so why would anyone else? DT has said 'America First' and the other countries will do the same, obviously.

You said It is quite laughable that this is the level of scaremongering. but I think it is It is quite laughable that this is the level of misunderstanding is still being promoted..

About that red bus- I wonder how many people would have voted Leave if it had read 'We give 350 M to the EU - let's give the NHS to Trump instead' ?

A true warning Jura

Ford has confirmed plans to close its engine plant at "Bridgend in South Wales by September 2020, saying it faced becoming "economically unsustainable" in the world's drive for electric vehicles.

The company ruled out a Brexit link after it made the formal announcement, saying that consultations on its proposals had begun with its 1,700 staff and their representatives."

news.sky.com/story/fords-bridgend-engine-plant-to-shut-by-september-2020-11735935

So- nothing to do with brexit then, yet this article is from the Financial Times 26th July 2016 suggests that it is very much to do with brexit-

"Ford is considering closing plants in the UK and across Europe in response to Britain’s vote to leave the EU, as it forecast a $1bn hit to its business over the next two years. The US motor company, which is the biggest car brand in the UK, will also raise the price of cars sold in Britain before the end of the year. Bob Shanks, chief financial officer, said a rise was needed to claw back money lost through foreign exchange movements.

Sterling has fallen by 11 per cent against the dollar since the vote on June 23, leaving companies that sell into the UK facing lower revenues in the months ahead. Ford warned of a difficult second half of the year for carmakers, with weaknesses in the US and Chinese markets adding to headwinds caused by Brexit and currency swings. The warning, combined with Ford missing expectations in the second quarter, because of weaker sales in China and the US, sent its shares down more than 9 per cent to $12.52 in late-morning trading in New York.

Mr Shanks said a combination of sterling’s devaluation and an expected hit to the UK car market would cost Ford $200m this year and another $400m to $500m each year over the next two years. “We’re going to have to look more at cost,” he said. The company would find a way to “claw that back”.

Questions have been raised over prospects for the UK’s car industry in the wake of the Brexit ballot, with analysts questioning whether the plants can win fresh work during a period of uncertainty over trade and the country’s position in the single European market. Ford’s two remaining UK plants are at Bridgend and Dagenham, making engines that are exported to other EU countries for final assembly. Ford then reimports many of these engines in completed vehicles for sale in the UK.

Analysts have warned that some carmakers would be forced to close plants in the UK if it faces trade barriers with the rest of Europe after Brexit. Ford has already closed all its remaining UK carmaking plants in the past five years, as well as one in Belgium with the loss of 5,700 jobs. Asked if the group would shut its remaining UK manufacturing operations, Mr Shanks said: “Everything is going to be on the table across Europe”.

www.ft.com/content/5f20ead4-54c5-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef

I fear we are heading for a recession, and feel very sorry for the many who will lose their jobs. We have high employment now, but many jobs are in retail, which is on the wane, call centres, service industries, and delivery drivers. Mostly low paid. Brexit is exacerbating the situation, and it doesn't look like a shiny future afterwards. We will definitely be the junior partner in negotiations with USA, who can't wait to get their hands on the NHS. DT has said that he believes that social health systems obtain drugs too cheaply. The UK government bargains and controls prices, and monitors value and efficacy (NICE). The US health system is more fragmented, and despite them using fewer prescription drugs than UK they are much more expensive, one of the most expensive countries in the world in fact. No doubt the big US pharma companies are very excited at the prospect of Brexit.

Varian, not to mention Honda is closing down in Swindon and while a lot of the close downs are linked to falling demand for motor vehicles, Brexit is considered to have contributed to the decsion.

I believe Ford are concentrating their production of electric vehicles in the European plants. Surprise surprise.

Ford are also laying off 5,000 in Germany.

Apologies posted prematurely- this was announced on Radio 2 news at lunchtime.

A few weeks after Brexit, someone I know who works in a senior position for a prestige car manufacturer said that Brexit would kill the UK car manufacturing business. When I repeated this, even to remain supporting friends, it was dismissed as scaremongering. Hmm

Sorrry jura your figure on the value of the £ is wrong. It was 1.62 before the vote and 2 days ago it was 1.62. I make that 22%

Sorry all, this was sent to me today and I just have to share it. Please see who wrote it before commenting: www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/bbc-accidentally-interviews-remain-voting-member-of-public-20190606186329

On the radio today when they were discussing the closure of the Bridgend plant, a financial expert, can’t remember the name, said investment in Britain had fallen by 80% since the referendum. That is really worrying.

Sorry Nonnie, I cannot follow your figures for the pound. Is there’ a typo?

OOPS yes!! Two days ago it was 1.26. Definitely a typo and thanks for pointing it out. I think I have dyslexic fingers.

Copied below to save anyone looking for it.

Sorrry jura your figure on the value of the £ is wrong. It was 1.62 before the vote and 2 days ago it was 1.26. I make that 22%

Sorry all, this was sent to me today and I just have to share it. Please see who wrote it before commenting: www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/bbc-accidentally-interviews-remain-voting-member-of-public-20190606186329

1.62 and 1.26 what? Where have I mentionned exchange rate on this thread?

Sterling rate went down over a period of time before the vote- and other rates have gone up. And yes, a variety of factors involved. For us personally- we went from 2.50 went we bought here, to 1.18 at some point 3 years ago, and now about 1.26 as you say- so about 50%.

For a laugh ... the Pound was exactly 10 Swiss Francs (CHF) when I first came to work in London- made calculations very easy ;)

James Felton
@JimMFelton
·
7h
Weird how Sony, Honda, Panasonic, Unilever, Barclays, Diageo, HSBC, Bank of America, Nissan, Panasonic, Schaeffler, Airbus, Philips, UBS, Hitachi, Jaguar Land Rover, BMW and Ford are all doing a project fear.

Very weird!!

oops, Sorry Jura it was varian who said 11% not you. However, I'm sure you would agree that 20% is a disaster for the UK and that it may well get worse if we do leave.

The money markets work on what they forecast the future value of different currencies will be. Clearly they think we are less valuable now than we were before 2016, must be a correlation.

The article I quoted above mentioning the 11% was from the Financial Times 26th July 2016 .

Nandalot the figure of 80% downturn in investment was applicable to the car industry, not overall investment.

Investment in the City of London has increased, not all related to the pounds low value. There are still lots of new offices being built and refurbishment of old buildings.

There was a professor from Cardiff University interviewed on Jeremy Vine Radio 2, and he made the observation that as the UK wants to
completely stop new petrol and Diesel cars as of 2030, Ford is sadly lagging behind many other car manufacturers regarding electric/hybrid engines.

Ford are also scaling down their German plant/s.

I truly hope that the town of Bridgend can attract new businesses/ manufacturers.

varian even the FT can make mistakes just like me They may well have been talking about a different period of time to me, mine is from just before the referendum until a few days ago. Think it has gone up from 1.26 to 1.27 now! I have a very good reason for monitoring the $/£ so can be very, very sure of my facts! It actually benefits me if the £ falls against the $ but not the UK economy.