Gransnet forums

News & politics

If there is an election.....

(263 Posts)
AllTheLs Tue 03-Sept-19 11:08:56

Who do people vote for?

Remainers will be split between the LibDems and Labour, so neither party will win.

Leavers will be split between the Tories and the Brexit Party, so ditto.

It may be a well and truly Hung Parliament.

Very interesting times indeed.

Day6 Tue 03-Sept-19 14:12:06

If we leave, particularly without a deal I think it is inevitable Scotland will vote for autonomy

Inevitable? Really? Again, you suggest it is likely to happen.

There are many Scots who fear independence and see it as being inviable , economically. I am sure there are many Scots who want to leave the union, but their referendum resulted in no change.

There is no guarantee the EU would give Scotland membership if it stood alone. Why you say it's inevitable I don't know, Gracesgran. Your posts are becoming very questionable.

Could it be Remainer wishful thinking as part of the disaster scenario you and others are looking for post Brexit?

Heaven forbid we leave the EU and survive, thrive and prosper, eh? hmm

humptydumpty Tue 03-Sept-19 14:22:18

Heaven forbid we leave the EU and don't survive, don't thrive and don't prosper

Fennel Tue 03-Sept-19 14:31:20

And guessing N. Ireland too, Joelsnan.
They're keeping very quiet, even though they hold the balance of the Tories tiny majority.

Labaik Tue 03-Sept-19 15:43:40

Many Scots voted to remain part of the UK because they didn't want to leave the EU.

GillT57 Tue 03-Sept-19 16:00:24

Yes Labaik and Scottish voters were assured by the wonderful Cameron that their best way to stay within the EU was to stay within the UK, we all know how well that promise turned out, don't we?

GillT57 Tue 03-Sept-19 16:02:26

Day6 I do wish you would read my post properly before storming in with your criticism of what I said.

absthame Tue 03-Sept-19 16:06:43

Where I live, lib dem as labour would not stand a chance. Besides which I would not vote for a Labour candidate that supports the Corbyn cabal, despite of joining the Labour Party 60 years ago, well before the charlatan Corbyn.

lemongrove Tue 03-Sept-19 16:35:41

As Jane10 says ( as a Scot herself) don’t be taken in and think Scotland wants to be independent. Sturgeon talks of nothing else, but that’s all it is, talk.
Scotland is unlikely to want to leave the UK.

lemongrove Tue 03-Sept-19 16:36:59

Many Scots Labaik continue to want to be part of the UK.

paddyann Tue 03-Sept-19 17:08:38

thats a mythjoelsnan Scotland does and always has paid more into the pot than it gets back .The so called Barnett formula just gives us back a % of our own money ,then WM spends the huge sum left and gets itself in debt ..whereby WE are told that 10% of that debt is ours????Couldn't make it up could you.WE dont have a deficit WESTMINSTER spent that money on things that we didn't want and that dont benefit us in any way .Its WESTMINSTERS DEBT .Philip Hammond said as recently as last month that England ...not the UK Annie couldn't afford to pay the interest on its debts wthout Scottish income .

Dont let the fact get in the way of the lies you've been told for decades .Just remember this .The Oil is in SCOTTISH waters the revenue from that oil has been squandered by WM for 40 + years ..tens of billions of pound.Norway with less oil has an oil fund worth Trillions so why would WE be worth less if we gain Independence? In reality Scotland is far wealthier than the rUK put together ..and also remember if we've paid for iit then EVERYTHING currently accepted as being owned by the UK is 10% our property .

paddyann Tue 03-Sept-19 17:11:49

And before someone says oil is running out....thats lies too,otherwise why would WM still beselling licenses to bring it up .New fields just opened bring tens of thousands of barrels A DAY .Then theres Whisky ...the income for UK is over £40 A SECOND .Not a huge amount when shared by 68 MILLION people but certainly more worth while for the 5 million who live work and contribute HERE

Whitewavemark2 Tue 03-Sept-19 18:28:27

Not looking likely

Paul Waugh

Labour chief whip Nick Brown just told PLP the party would not back PM's snap election bid. He said party wanted Johnson to "stew in his own juices" and be made to "own" his mess, one present says.
John McDonnell didnt demur.

varian Tue 03-Sept-19 18:33:11

I may be wrong, but it seems to me that John McDonnell has recently become more attuned to the mainstream.

Labaik Tue 03-Sept-19 18:37:16

I agree with that, varian.

GracesGranMK3 Tue 03-Sept-19 19:12:29

It seems you can copy but not read my word Day6. You say that I suggest it is likely to happen and yet copy my words saying "I think" which would normally alert an understanding that it is my opinion. You may have a different opinion. You are entitled to that but I am equally entitled to hold my opinion without being attacked personally because of them. It is not unreasonable to believe it is likely any more than it is unreasonable to believe it isn't.

Joelsnan Tue 03-Sept-19 19:28:30

Paddyann
FYI:
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06625/SN06625.pdf
And:
In broad-terms, relative to the size of its economy, Scotland has a much bigger deficit than the UK as a whole, and this looks set to continue. This reflects relatively high levels of government spending and relatively low levels of onshore tax revenues. Weak economic growth in the last few years seems to have depressed revenue growth, despite increases in devolved income taxes.
The Table also shows that government spending per person in Scotland has increased relative to the UK average in recent years: it was 11.3% above average in 2015–16 and 9.5% above average in 2009–10. This results in part from the way the Barnett formula works – during periods of fiscal restraint it ensures that Scotland (and the other devolved nations) don’t quite suffer from the full force of spending cuts being made by the UK government. In addition, as mentioned above, the Scottish Government has been making use of devolved borrowing powers to invest more in new infrastructure and facilities since 2015–16.

Full article at Institute for fiscal studies:
www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13287

M0nica Tue 03-Sept-19 20:05:15

If the Scots want to go, let them. They too can leave without any deal and let them see how they get on.

paddyann have you heard of Global warming? It is something that the world has known about for several decades, although the news has obviously not got too far north. Global warming has been caused by the indiscriminate and uncontrolled burning of fossil tuels (like oil and gas) and left to increase it could kill all of us. The way to deal with it is to eliminate the use of oil and gas and leave it in the ground. The value of oil and gas in the ground that is never liked to be extracted is precisely £nil.

Speaking as someone who has worked in the oil and gas industry, as has DH. Giving a company a license to explore a certain area of sea, is not the same as saying that any oil or gas is going to be found or exploited.

The process is:
1) a licence is granted. This means that the company can survey the area to see if there are any structures in it which might contain oil and gas, despite research before hand, this can be a very imprecise science. Many of these license areas prove barren and are written off.
2. If there are suitable structures they need to be surveyed to see if they contain any oil and gas and whether they are likely to contain commercial quantities of those products. Many don't, so another clutch of licenses are wasted money. 3. The oil companies then need to work out whether the oil/gas reserves are recoverable at a cost that does not exceed the price the oil/gas can be sold at. Currently reserves being explored are more and more difficult to access and the platforms and technology to do so is more and more complicated and expensive.

So for every 100 licences granted, possibly as few as 10 are developed as operating oil fields.

Oil and gas production peaked in the late 90s and now is on a gentle downhill trajectory. There is now thought to be only one fully unexplored province in the North Sea, and that is Rattray and if you follow the link you will get an idea just how difficult and expensive both exploration and extraction will be, should commercial reserves be found. www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/europe-eurasia/2019/rattray-could-hold-the-last-great-north-sea-oil-reserves

The Scottish government (and you, paddyann) would be very unwise to rely on oil and gas to pad out your revenues.

M0nica Tue 03-Sept-19 20:06:18

A second referendum will take us nowhere, even if the result is the same as last time because once again it will have to go back to the government to negotiate satisfactory terms or we leave without a deal. Which is exactly what is causing all the turmoil at the moment.

Gonegirl Tue 03-Sept-19 20:13:43

Wales will NEVER be called England!!!!!

Daftest thing I've seen on here for a long time. grin

Anniebach Tue 03-Sept-19 20:32:15

True Gonegirl

SirChenjin Tue 03-Sept-19 21:22:20

I think there’s every chance that Scotland will vote for independence - and I say that as a committed unionist. Even I am beginning to think that the sh1tstorm of independence would be better than the shItstorm of a no deal Brexit with an extremely right wing Tory Govt in power for many years to come. I’ll never vote SNP but when speaking to friends who have also been ardent supporters of the Union we’re definitely starting to question which option would be the least worse - and none of us ever thought we’d say that. We’re definitely keeping a close eye on things on the shocking goings on at WM.

Mossfarr Tue 03-Sept-19 22:06:20

jura
I think you mis-read my post.
I did not say that I KNEW any of those things - nobody knew what a total mess our politicians would make of our democratic decision to leave the EU.
With regard to your comment about Boris - no of course I didn't know it would be him - but please, do tell me, which of our politicians doesn't use every trick in the book for their own advancement?
And finally, yes I did suspect there would be some shortages for a while at least, until things settle down - incidentally, not all of them are a result of Brexit.
GillT57 - experts??? There are experts on both sides of the argument.

Joyfulnanna Tue 03-Sept-19 22:10:08

Miche, too true

SirChenjin Tue 03-Sept-19 22:40:49

Moss - the behaviour of BJ et al is unprecedented in its awfulness. What they are attempting to do isn’t self advancement, it’s a systematic dismantling of parliamentary democracy using threats, intimidation and tactics that we expect from dictators rather than British politicians. I hope that we never see the like again.

Callistemon Tue 03-Sept-19 23:11:42

Just a thought where is Mrs May these days?
Sitting by the side of Mr Hammond in the H of C, Lessismore. She may not be PM but she is still an MP.

Rubbish Anniebach grin
There's a sign just down the road from me which says Croeso i Gymru (and another which says Croeso y Cymru).

It is definitely not England.