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Do we understand what a “No Deal” actually means ?

(60 Posts)
Realgranddad Fri 06-Sep-19 10:01:03

We are close to the most important decisions of our lives. Ones that will affect the quality of lives of generations to come, our grandchildren and family quality of life and possibly their economic future.
17 millions of us voted for a Brexit Deal, a small major of 2%. At the referendum we were told an easy transition would be possible. We were all badly mislead by deception throughout
the campaign by both sides. None of us voted for what has been described as an extreme dangerous “No deal” that would put lives & jobs at risk.
I never voted for a No deal, in fact I did not consider it or even know what it meant.

For me today the important question is : Do we understand what a no deal actually means? The possible shortages of essential medications manufactured
P in the EU and lives being put at risks, jobs, economy, food prices increases have all been mentioned. What is the truth, is it worth taking the risks, what if any are the benefits? Your considered views please, having lived through the horrors of war shortages I don’t desire to put my 12 grandchildren at risk.

Grandad1943 Fri 06-Sep-19 10:18:01

Realgranddad, I believe you only have to read the below statement from the road haulage Association to understand what a no deal Brexit would mean for Britain.

Richard Burnett the chairman of of the above Association has been making statements on Brexit throughout the last three years. Representing the hauliers that everyday cross the channel with all that Britain requires to survive, he has the knowledge of what an end to the customs union and free trade really means.

Of course, he was one of the business persons that Boris Johnson stated could f*ck off when it came to Brexit.

Richard Burnett another expert that leave supporters wish to ignore.

RHA statement begins here:-
www.rha.uk.net/news/press-releases/2018-07-july/brexit-and-the-uk-haulage-industry-%E2%80%93-no-deal-no-jobs-no-food

absthame Fri 06-Sep-19 14:26:36

I took part in the very original referendum called by Wilson on the no side. In that campaign we made it clear that the objective of the EEC was to ultimately unite Europe into one political entity. We were either disbelieved or just ignored and we lost by a majority of 2 to 1.

So I believed that we Brits would join and be enthusiastic members. Instead we had people like Michael Howard and the rest of the right-wing of the Tory party aided and encouraged by that right-wing part of the press owned by either Australian emigrants or products of Public schools and financed by very dubious sources that were and are determined to remove any controls on their activities; all determined to destroy our membership.

Finally the right-wing extremists win the day and thanks to a gullible PM they get a referendum. In the referendum the 40years of press lies about the EU combined with a whole series of lies laid out by Johnson and Grove together with the mantras “we've had enough of experts” and “f**k business, what do they know. ” unbelievably they won.

So we get to today when the s**t is about to hit the fan we face food, medicine shortages fuel shortages, companies failing employment falling a currency in free fall and a rapid increase in the death rate, but don't worry the government have increased the stock of body bags to cope with that last one.

And so friends that's what Johnson, Cummins, Groves, Rees-Mogg etc have, they hope, brought our nation too, all in the name of personal profit. Why worry, after all we plebs are subhuman,according to those illustrious folks, and don't feel as they do.
angryangryangry

Realgranddad Fri 06-Sep-19 14:32:20

Thank you,

I have just been reading the RHA report, the Bank of England , the CBI, the TUC and the institute of Government,, The report estimates the UK economy will be between 6.3-9 per cent smaller after around 15 years in the event of a no-deal Brexit.It also states there will be “significant variation” across the UK. It predicts a 10.5 per cent decline in the North East of England, 9.1 per cent in Northern Ireland, 8.1 per cent in Wales and 8 per cent in Scotland.“This analysis does not account for any short-term disruptions, . This is fright for jobs, our economy and life style. Why are we ignoring these reputable official reports, ignorance is a frightening scenario yet the public are being blinded to the facts. That worries me as to why even grand parents are closing their eyes and ears to the truth. Perhaps a more articulate person can explain ?

Urmstongran Fri 06-Sep-19 14:40:54

Perhaps a more articulate person can explain ?

so no pressure there then Realgrandad!

Who’d want to follow on from that?

😱

growstuff Fri 06-Sep-19 14:43:14

Don't forget political issues in Ireland and Gibraltar.

Teetime Fri 06-Sep-19 14:44:46

a rapid increase in the death rate

oh do come on!

Elegran Fri 06-Sep-19 15:04:57

Realgrandad The explanation lies somewhere in the multitude of information that beseiges us. The rise in the amount of facts available to the general public, encouraging ordinary people to have opinions, has not been backed up by making sure that those non-experts know HOW to form a sensible opinion on a big topic.

There are people closing their eyes to the reports and predictions by experts in all kinds of fields, mostly because there has been a campaign on social and news media to rubbish experts. Many people don't trust experts any more.

Instead, they are bombarded on all sides by persuasive rhetoric which is sometimes partisan , sometimes illogical, sometimes cynically slanted to benefit the spreader of it, and often a mixture of more than one of those things. Many people can''t tell any more what is honest but pessimistic expectation for the future and what is scare-mongering to push public opinion in a desired direction, so the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater.

varian Fri 06-Sep-19 15:10:05

A no deal Brexit would be just the beginning

Prof Catherine Barnard and Prof Anand Menon explain-

"Even if Mr Johnson succeeds and the UK leaves the EU without a deal on October 31, this will not mark the end of the Brexit process.

Far from it.

Eventually, the two sides will need to start talking again. And at this point we may come to miss the much-maligned Article 50 divorce process. If the UK leaves without a deal, it will, eventually, have to negotiate the nature of its future relationship with the EU.

No major trading nation trades solely on World Trade Organization terms, and it makes little economic sense for the UK to do so with its nearest and largest trading partner. It is when these talks start that we may begin to get a little nostalgic for Article 50. What that benighted text does is create a fast track towards an agreement."

ukandeu.ac.uk/a-no-deal-brexit-would-be-just-the-beginning/

If only this was explained to the readers of the Daily Express, The Sun and Daily Mail, many of whom seem to think that "just get on with it" "leave with no deal" etc would mean the end of brexit and politics could go back to being about the NHS, schools, police etc.

Some people even seem to think that "no deal" means things staying as they are and we remain in the EU.

Every time a huge gap in the public's understanding of this very complex issue is mentioned, there are accusations of "insulting the intelligence of 17.4m people", just another mantra the brexiters parrot to try to cover up the truth.

Dyffryn Fri 06-Sep-19 15:22:22

With all that we know, there will still be people who think we are going to be living in a land of milk and honey when we leave, not caring about the effect it will have on people’s jobs, livelihoods etc and certainly not caring about Northern Ireland and the inevitable breakup of the UK. But hey ho we will have left that awful EU so it will all be worth it won’t it.

lemongrove Fri 06-Sep-19 15:44:43

Realgranddad You must be the oldest member of GN so far to remember war shortages.
There wasn’t a vote to get a deal or not on the ballot paper, it was Leave or Remain, but even so, the general public thought there would be much negotiating but by March 29th we would leave with some sort of WA and then go on to do deals.
Our MPs had other ideas it would seem, and they refused the deal three times.Now they refuse to have no deal.
We are in a stalemate situation.
Why should the EU do anything more? I can’t blame them, they are getting the best deal they can, pity our politicians didn’t do the same.

varian Fri 06-Sep-19 16:01:00

We are getting the best deal we ever could as a member of the EU, in fact a better deal than any other EU country, yet some people in the UK still want to leave, even though the hollow undeliverable promises made by the lying leave campaigners have now been revealed.

Fennel Fri 06-Sep-19 16:07:14

Lemon - I remember war shortages. and prewar.
Realgrandad you need to add to your statement the reasons WHY these problems will occur. Many people in the UK think it's scaremongering because reasons haven't been given.

Elegran Fri 06-Sep-19 16:26:33

Reasons have been given , but they have been either not read or not understood. Potential shortages of some foods, for instance, could happen because without trade agreements on imports from the countries of origin of those foods, there would be paperwork to be checked at the places where they entered the UK. Checking paperwork needs a human eye, a human intelligence, and a certain amount of time.

While one consignment of food was being checked through customs, the lorry behind it would have to wait its turn, so would the lorries behind that - whether their contents came from an EU country, one on the European continent that wasn't in the EU, a container ship from the Far East or one from the US or South America. Many, many consignments arrive at our ports and airports every day! It could take hours - days? - for transport to clear the queue. Some produce can't be held up like that without going off.

The paperwork on imported goods, whether food or not, could include a bill for customs duty. That would be added to the price, resulting in higher prices.

The other things that could and very likely would follow our leaving the EU trade agreements have similar explanations. It is not rocket science to work out the mechanisms which could cause delays, inconveniences, costs and shortages. When they happen, those affected will blame "the government" for them and for not passing legislation to stop them happening!

Elegran Fri 06-Sep-19 16:30:54

Fennel I remember shopping with my mother, and queueing at several shops for each item, only to be told that they had sold out. I remember the rumours that went round "XXXX has sugar!!" and the rush to get to XXXX's shop to be near the front of the queue. She used to shop for elderly neighbours, so we would have their necessities to queue for too.

varian Fri 06-Sep-19 16:33:07

Brexit: Bill intended to block no deal to become law after being passed by House of Lords

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/06/brexit-boris-johnson-news-latest-eu-labour-confirms-it-will-not-vote-on-monday-night-for-early-election-live-newsbior

petra Fri 06-Sep-19 16:41:10

There is no 'deal'
'They' are working on a withdrawal treaty

Joelsnan Fri 06-Sep-19 16:48:56

No deal is a misnoma
If we leave on 31st this will probably be without agreeing the terms of leaving i.e. the Withdrawal Agreement.
At that stage we would be in the same position of any other country who wants to agree a trading agreement with the EU, except we would be in a more advanced position to finalisation as we would be in compliance with just about all of the policy and legal requirements for the trade deal with having just left.
Theoretically the withdrawal agreement could have been finalised once we had left as it relates to payments for pension contributions and ongoing contracts (and yes borders) however, because this would identify an easy way out for other restless members and potential derail of the gravy train, it was considered unacceptable.
Apparently No actual trade deal talks can take place until UK finally leaves, and, again, theoretically if both sides agreed an immediate free trade agreement could come into play as per WTO rules until a final formal deal was agreed, but again this would be too easy and could lead to the collapse of the union as it stands. Therefore the hysteria around the 31/10/19 ‘deal’ seems a bit disingenuous, unless you are swept along by proletariat spin.

growstuff Fri 06-Sep-19 16:53:06

What about Ireland?

Moocow Fri 06-Sep-19 17:03:24

for one area of NHS budget a no deal means this extra expense - www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-49598590?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health&link_location=live-reporting-story
Now pause, stop thinking about money and think for a moment about how that could affects families. Not just those with children but those with adult family members that need them. More stress!

lemongrove Fri 06-Sep-19 17:10:39

Fennel and Elegran I didn’t realise we had so many GNers in their mid eighties or more, so Realgranddad may not be the oldest after all.Which may please him.

growstuff Fri 06-Sep-19 17:12:29

You are right Joelsnan but the Withdrawal Agreement covers citizens’ rights, the £39bn Brexit divorce bill, and the Northern Ireland border. If the UK leaves with no Withdrawal Agreement, there are still many unresolved issues.

In the article which varian linked, it appears that a trade agreement isn't quite so simple as you imply, especially with regard to services. The UK has a £83 billion pa surplus in trading services with the EU and it would be foolish not to come to an agreement. If we don't, the UK's trade balance will take a huge hit. Johnson's "bumps in the road" could last quite some time. Meanwhile, of course, some of the providers of services (finance, legal, accounting, advertising, research and development, architectural, engineering and other professional and technical services) will relocate to other EU countries, as some already have in anticipation of Brexit.

growstuff Fri 06-Sep-19 17:14:15

PS. Varian's link is from the House of Common's library, not some rabid remainer website.

lemongrove Fri 06-Sep-19 17:14:50

I agree Joelsnan that no deal has always been wrongly labelled.The same for ‘cliff edge’ and any other colourful phrases.

growstuff Fri 06-Sep-19 17:18:08

But the facts remain, whatever one likes to call them.

Immediate issues are citizens’ rights, the £39bn Brexit divorce bill, and the Northern Ireland border.

We can trade on WTO terms until trade agreements are reached, but this will have significant effects on the logistics of physical trade and a loss of income from trading in services. Prices will inevitably affected - that's not Project Fear.