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Will the fat lady sing?

(263 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 07:48:52

Well

Starmer is talking to the DUP in the hope that a new alliance can be formed which will, it is hoped, force the government into a softer departure or/and confirmatory vote on whether to leave at all.
The softer departure will take the form of a customs union, which is obviously attractive to the DUP.

It is thought that there is enough cross party support for a CU. amendment.

Johnson is trying to rush through all stages of the Brexit legislation before the EU summit pencilled in for next week, but parliament may reject this rushed timetable because it doesn’t give sufficient time to scrutinise such a hugely important bill, and there will be a vote on this tomorrow. It is hoped that parliament will insist on giving itself more time over the extended transition period.

Johnson is attempting to get parliamentary backing for his Brexit deal in a straight yes/no vote today. Hoping to show support for his agreement. But it is expected that a Bercow will enforce parliamentary rules that say that parliament can’t keep bringing the same vote back, as was voted on, on Saturday and Johnson lost.

One suspicion is that if Johnson can get a meaningful vote through he will withdraw his extension letter.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 07:56:36

One bit of change.

Bercow can’t stop the Yes/no vote because it wasn’t voted on on Saturday, (withdrawing doesn’t count) but he can stop it because it contravenes Letwin.

Amagran Mon 21-Oct-19 08:00:27

Nice summing up, Whitewavemark2.

Worried as I am, I find it very reassuring that our Parliamentary Democracy allows these brakes to be applied to the will of an unscrupulous government to ensure opportunities for scrutiny, votes and amendments. It is by no means a perfect system, but it is so much better than the alternatives. I hope that MPs now proceed by following their conscience without allowing the threat of deselection etc. to lead them to support a rogue leader and a poor deal.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 08:07:59

The CU amendment does have a glimmer of hope as many Tories are unhappy at the Johnson WA as being too draconian.

They may well support the CU amendment.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 08:12:14

At the back of all these shenanigans we must never let go of the knowledge that everything Johnson does must be seen through the prism of his premiership bid.

Until and if he has won a GE he can never be seen as legitimate nor be mandated for his policies.

Calendargirl Mon 21-Oct-19 08:19:44

It seems a pity then that Labour and others won’t agree to a G.E.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 08:25:56

They will when it suits them. Remember we have a minority non-mandated government so parliament is de-facto calling the shots.

MamaCaz Mon 21-Oct-19 08:27:18

It's a much bigger pity that the Tories and others won't put their 'deal' to a democratic vote to confirm or otherwise that a majority wants to leave on those terms.

Calendargirl Mon 21-Oct-19 08:33:39

MamaCaz

So what happens if this new democratic vote is also split hmm? What then? But if course, it won’t be, will it?

Calendargirl Mon 21-Oct-19 08:34:25

‘of course’

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 08:42:09

The PV can have a legal clause, so that if the WA is voted for by the public then it will be enacted. No Ifs or buts.

MamaCaz Mon 21-Oct-19 09:31:19

Exactly what Whitewave says.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 10:03:00

The WA must be signed off by the voter. It can’t be seen as legitimate otherwise.

Don’t forget we have a government three of whom including the PM are being investigated for various potentially criminal acts, including knowingly breaking the electoral rules.

The electorate will never accept this without a confirmatory vote.

GrannyGravy13 Mon 21-Oct-19 10:21:08

If there is to be another referendum it should be in two parts

First part. Leave the EU
Remain in the EU

Second part Leave with Boris Johnsons Deal
Leave with no deal.

If the first part is remain, that's it done and dusted, if it's leave then the second votes come into play.

MaizieD Mon 21-Oct-19 10:24:41

The electorate will never accept this without a confirmatory vote.

Goodness you're optimistic, WwMk2.

Davidhs Mon 21-Oct-19 10:29:52

Starmer and the DUP, strange bedfellows, maybe he will offer more in bribes than the Tories, they wont be agreeing for long though.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 10:31:18

maize I know, but I think it would be seen as far more legitimate if the voter did sign it off one way or the other.

Without a vote the deal will, if it goes through, be passed by a government that has neither a majority government, with a leader who has no mandate from the voter and some of whom are being looked at for potential criminal charges, and corruption at the highest level.

HootyMcOwlface Mon 21-Oct-19 10:34:58

I hope our MPs step up to the mark and remember their duty to do the best for the country and put its interests first, and not their party or own career interests.

Davidhs Mon 21-Oct-19 10:37:21

I’m sure the OP is correct and we will leave when parliament is satisfied, they don’t trust the PM and his cronies one inch. A majority of MPs now want a deal done and that’s what will happen.
Then we can get on with our lives and make the best of it, at least there will be a transition to avoid chaos

growstuff Mon 21-Oct-19 10:37:41

Whitwave You know as well as I do that legitimacy has no meaning in the current climate.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 10:39:38

The WAB is being published today. Remember the government could have published much sooner but chose not to, instead have left too little time (they hope) for it be scrutinised properly.

Raphael Hogarth thinks there are 7 flash points.

Timetabling
2nd referendum
CU
Conditions for paying the divorce bill
EU law and ECJ
Who decides what happens at the end of transition.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/seven-flashpoints-withdrawal-agreement-bill

growstuff Mon 21-Oct-19 10:41:14

But, David, we can't "just get on with our lives". This situation will continue until at least the end of 2020, when we'll go through the whole thing again. Then we have years of negotiating any kind of agreements, many of which will cause squabbles. People who think this so-called "deal" will clear the air are deluded.

MaizieD Mon 21-Oct-19 10:43:00

Starmer and the DUP, strange bedfellows,

That's politics, for you, David.

Talking of strange bedfellows, how about the involvement of Labour MPs, Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock & Kate Hooey, in a rightwing 'think tank' that promotes deregulation and the hardest of all Brexits? Prosperity Commission. Populated by members of the ERG and the DUP. Strange bedfellows indeed.

Have a look at this thread:

twitter.com/cirian75/status/1185962604868636674

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 10:46:34

maizie

Corruption everywhere you look.

We still have the Acuri case. They are now looking at her political connections in the USA, and her agenda.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 21-Oct-19 10:50:32

Once (if) the WA gets passed, we then start with the real negotiations.

That should be fun