What I think will happen tomorrow

suziewoozie

lemongrove

Labour now have a big problem on their hands ( they had before this, but it just got bigger,)

Thank you for that insight.

You’re entirely welcome ?

I am not sure that an opposition party could fight in current circumstances, Grannygravy. I think all those parties incumbent during the pandemic and particularly the vaccine rollout have held on. Now the LP should be able to put alternative policies forward - let's hope we like them. I am still open-minded about Starmer and I think his party would be wise to be for another year at least.

It looks as if, when the statistics are analysed, Labour lost Hartlepool rather than the Conservatives winning it. If we compare 2017 and 2021, the actual voting numbers were down by 12 thousand. It seems reasonable to suggest that most of the stay-at-home voters were former Labour supporters as the Tory vote seems to have largely held up.

As that's with the above-mentioned vaccine boost, a constituency that was hugely pro Brexit and the Tories as the party with the power to make policies I do think it would make sense for the LP to keep their powder dry and sit it out for a while. I think it's a lot more nuanced than it looked initially.

The knife edge constituency of Aberdeen Wesr was CRUCIAL to the SNP. It was a marginal seat. Gone over to the Tories!!

NS was confident she would win it.

Scotland is SPLIT right down the middle.

Nope, the Conservatives won Hartlepool fair and square, but it’s entertaining to watch the squirming going on.?

Yes, just saw that Aberdeen West has been won by the Conservative candidate, cue much SNP gnashing of teeth.

"Retained", not gone over to the Tories. Sturgeon was not confident of winning it, it was necessary to win it if the SNP were to win an overall majority. (Something that the parliamentary voting system was set up to avoid, incidentally). They'll probably be 2 seats short. Quel horreur!

I guess there was a lot of Unionist gnashing of teeth when the SNP won 3 seats from the Tories, given that the Tories haven't won any seats they didn't hold before.

Scotland is indeed split down the middle. One party got 48% of the vote (so far) and about 21 (literally) others got the other 52%. Pretty decisive, I'd have thought.

If you're going to comment on the election try to get the facts right.

Anniebach

Diane Abbott seems to have forgotten the Labour Party lost two general elections because voters didn’t want the country run by the left.

Anniebach
I did think that, with a change of leader, might come the realisation of what it is that the population wants, what kind of UK, that going back to core values did not suit a modern Britain, that people and the way they want to live their lives has changed in a century.

I think New Labour (or Tory-lite) understood this perfectly well hence their success but some politicians and LP members are not grasping this at all and harking back further to olden days and the values of that era.

Compromise seems to be a dirty word but it is often necessary.

A radical re-think is needed, I did think Starmer was the man to grasp the nettle but I am disappointed to say that I don't think he is.

Alegrias1

"Retained", not gone over to the Tories. Sturgeon was not confident of winning it, it was necessary to win it if the SNP were to win an overall majority. (Something that the parliamentary voting system was set up to avoid, incidentally). They'll probably be 2 seats short. Quel horreur!

I guess there was a lot of Unionist gnashing of teeth when the SNP won 3 seats from the Tories, given that the Tories haven't won any seats they didn't hold before.

Scotland is indeed split down the middle. One party got 48% of the vote (so far) and about 21 (literally) others got the other 52%. Pretty decisive, I'd have thought.

If you're going to comment on the election try to get the facts right.

Oooooh! ?

Scotland is unlikely to get another referendum, regardless of how the SNP do, but better that they don’t get an overall majority at least.

Well as people like to say on here let's wait and see.

No referendum regardless of how well the SNP do. That sounds perfectly democratic.

I got my facts right.
Scotland is SPLIT right down the middle.

When (if) they have Indy2 I don’t think it’s going to be a shoo in now.

Boris says no, not yet anyway.
If NS wants one she’ll have to ask the Court’s decision.
She signed up to ‘once in a generation’.

Bit like the EU with the pesky Lisbon treaty.
Keep voting people until you give us the right answer.

It might be worth contemplating Annie, that we are currently still in what the American's would call the mid-term part of the election cycle. Rather than anyone thinking those that oppose the Labour Party have anything to contribute on how they could do better, it might be worth the LP taking noting that Biden kept the full extent of his radical policies very close to his chest until after he was elected. With "UK Trump" running our country I think the LP might be wise to do the same.

The current Conservative party is not, in my opinion, actually very right wing - the social policies are more those of the old fashioned liberal party, as is the appeal I think. Going back to local decisions as much as possible.
Have you read the words of Khalid Mahmood, a Labour M.P. for Birmingham, ‘A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of brigades of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the party’ and ‘the loudest voices in the Labour movement over the past year in particular have focused more on pulling down statues than they have on helping people pull themselves up in the world.’ Most people care about their family, education, jobs etc, and don’t consider it a crime if someone wolf whistles in the street or accidentally misgenders someone. Bring back Harold Wilson - I wish we could! He had integrity and a genuine working background, not a law degree and a short career as a political aide or whatever.

The SNP and the Greens have lost the popular vote in Scotland. There is no majority for the nationalists among the electorate.

.... it’s a big no from the granite city.

PippaZ we are not in America, our political system is set up totally different.

As for Biden, he is not all good like most politicians he has faults.

Is this an unusual trend?
Quite often local elections may reflect a dissatisfaction with central government with the opposition party gaining local seats.

" Scotland's Deputy First Minister has insisted that the SNP has a mandate to hold Scotland's second independence referendum, known as IndyRef2, even without a majority in the Scottish Parliament."

Any attempt to do so would be stopped in its tracks at once by the Supreme Court.

Power over Constitutional matters has not be devolved to the Scottish Parliament.

NS knows this full well.

And if they press ahead regardless? Another Catalonia/Spain situation?

Urmstongran

The SNP and the Greens have lost the popular vote in Scotland. There is no majority for the nationalists among the electorate.

Really lassie, what are you talking about? Lost the popular vote?

SNP and Green together, projected to have 72 seats in a Parliament of 129 seats. 55% of seats

Forecast to be 49% of the electorate, och well, we'll live with that.

SNP vote share increased 3%, Green increased 0.5% in the constituencies. We'll have to wait for the list.

Callistemon

Is this an unusual trend?
Quite often local elections may reflect a dissatisfaction with central government with the opposition party gaining local seats.

Yes because it’s unusual times. There’s never been anything like this . I think some of the analysis will be very interesting. Broadly though incumbent governments have succeeded across the 3 nations - that’s relevant as with also most Mayors. London is interesting - I thought he might do it on 1st preferences and Bailey is beyond dire.

Urmstongran

.... it’s a big no from the granite city.

3 constituencies in the Granite City. (Aberdeen, for anybody interested)

All stayed SNP.

Keep trying Urmstongran, you'll get one right eventually.

Urmstongran

" Scotland's Deputy First Minister has insisted that the SNP has a mandate to hold Scotland's second independence referendum, known as IndyRef2, even without a majority in the Scottish Parliament."

Any attempt to do so would be stopped in its tracks at once by the Supreme Court.

Power over Constitutional matters has not be devolved to the Scottish Parliament.

NS knows this full well.

And if they press ahead regardless? Another Catalonia/Spain situation?

No, no wildcats.

Just democracy.

GrannyGravy13

PippaZ we are not in America, our political system is set up totally different.

As for Biden, he is not all good like most politicians he has faults.

The first of those comments is patently true but I'm not sure why it's relevant and the second is an opinion to which you are obviously entitled but in my opinion he was right to "keep his powder dry" and hope Starmer does not hand policies out to Britain Trump before he has to.

I didn’t think the SNP could get any of the list?

I suppose with the Greens it IS a majority. No change overall then from the last 4 (or is it 5) years. I do think that NS hoped for a majority vote without a coalition with the Greens again to achieve another run at Indy2!

Harold Wilson had so much integrity he approved the people of Aberfan to pay towards removal of the tips, he also kept Lord Robbens and the board in their jobs even though the
Enquiry found the blame lay with the NCB and Lord Robbens
was economical with the truth

Tony Blair returned the money to the fund when he became PM nearly 30 years later

grandmajet

The current Conservative party is not, in my opinion, actually very right wing - the social policies are more those of the old fashioned liberal party, as is the appeal I think. Going back to local decisions as much as possible.
Have you read the words of Khalid Mahmood, a Labour M.P. for Birmingham, ‘A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of brigades of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the party’ and ‘the loudest voices in the Labour movement over the past year in particular have focused more on pulling down statues than they have on helping people pull themselves up in the world.’ Most people care about their family, education, jobs etc, and don’t consider it a crime if someone wolf whistles in the street or accidentally misgenders someone. Bring back Harold Wilson - I wish we could! He had integrity and a genuine working background, not a law degree and a short career as a political aide or whatever.

I think that Khalid Mahmood is channeling Ug