Voting intentions.

NfkDumpling

That may have been his ambition at the start Lucca - but then Brexit hasn't gone the way he thought it would and Covid happened. And look what happened to Thatcher. Better to go out on a high

He's not on a high, though, is he?

Made a mess of Brexit, made a mess of covid, broke manifesto promises; everything he touches turns to dross...

It's been a "Never Ready" government, led by a "Never Ready" Prime Minister. Why would anyone want us to continue hurtling from chaos to crumbling economy?

I like your urn of phrase Pippa! Never ready. All I can say is we had better be ready because I think the worst may be yet to come. Sorry to be negative folks

growstuff

Hmmm! It's interesting that the catalyst for the fall in popularity seems to be the breaking of the promise on the triple lock and the realisation of some pensioners that the will have to pay NICs.

In other words, Johnson has upset his core voters, who don't seem to have cared much about all the other havoc and suffering to others or the country he has caused. They don't care much about big picture issues such as democracy or values such as transparency and honesty, which are labelled as issues for the "liberal elite".

It would be quite easy for him to buy back that support with some kind of sweeteners targeted at them. It's what happens when politics is organised round particular demographics - the "grey vote", "northern working class" or whatever. My guess would be that some policy wonks have already set out a timetable for when they want the next GE to be and will announce some big bribes a few months before it happens.

What reason do you have for your comments about pensioners and the grey vote. NIC is to be paid by those pensioners who are still working past retirement age. From what I've read, most of them who are earning above the lower level are not objecting to paying the contributions.

The objections are because of the many people who won't be paying NIC - landlords, those directors who pay the minimum salary and take the rest in dividends and those whose income derives from investments. There are many people out there who trade on the stock markets and earn a fortune but who are not paying NIC.

Good on you Dilly Perhaps your friends will change their minds too.

those directors who pay the minimum salary and take the rest in dividends and those whose income derives from investments.

The tax on dividend income has been increased (was it by 1.5%?). Perhaps this has caused some revulsion, too.

Dinahmo I didn't claim that the "grey vote" objected. Please re-read.

What I wrote is that political strategists think in terms of particular demographics. They group people according to shared characteristics and try to woo them with promises and "sweeteners".

They sit round a table and work out that there are X number of potential voters, maybe concentrated in certain areas (eg the "red wall" or the "shires") and come up with something they think will appeal to them.

The "grey vote" is a powerful group because there are so many of them and the vast majority vote Conservative. My guess is that they can afford to lose a few of them in the short term, but will come up with something to get them back nearer the election.

These days, it's not just about finance, but values as well. Political parties know from focus groups about the attitudes of various groups to issues such as immigration, equality, etc etc. The Conservatives have been especially keen to stir up divisions and bring "wokeness" to the fore because they understand prejudices of swing voters very well.

PS. I agree with you that people don't take kindly to the people who "won't* be paying the "Health and Social Care Levy".

A lot of my Conservative friends have completely turned on him.

I don't really discuss politics with friends but I have been inwardly quite happy about it.

I don't think much of Labour at the moment though and they need to do more to win the votes come the day.