54 Letters

Pondering upon it all yet again last night it dawned on me that when Johnson has gone an awful lot of stuff will come out about him, both of his personal life but also of the way he has achieved power and what he has done with it. History will not be judging this man or his supporters kindly.

Yes I am sure we will be pretty shocked.

Been reading quite a bit over the last couple of days and the general view is that he won’t lose the vote if it comes to that as they have none of any real merit to replace him. Blimey, if the Tory party can’t find anyone better than Johnson - that is grim.

I think that’s too simplistic.
I bet between themselves the Tory party could come up with an alternative candidate (or two) for Boris. The point is ... would the voters agree? That is the big conundrum. They know he is popular - we must acknowledge that a large swathe of the voting public don’t go into the minutiae of government as we do on GN. In fact, never mind accountability in the ‘did he mislead Parliament?’ .... a great number of folk (maybe a huge number who knows?) are sick to the back teeth of ‘partygate’, think Starmer & Rayner weren’t much different in Durham (they were economical with the truth shall we say), see that Zelinsky is a fan and so will in all probability just put a cross on the ballot paper next to his name.

They realise he’s not to blame for Covid, the inflated prices - they are struggling all over Europe, the price of diesel at the pumps. They will forgive him and vote for him if (and I suppose it’s a big ‘if’) he manages to turn things by the time of a GE in 2 years’ time. He is regarded by many as ‘a lucky General’.

Time will tell. It will be interesting seeing how things pan out.

The rebels have asked that some of the MPs who have submitted letters, to withdraw them for a few weeks. They want to be more organised, before forcing a confidence vote.

"Rebel Conservative MPs’ plans to oust Boris Johnson next week have descended further into disunity, with some worried that potential contenders to replace the prime minister are not ready to launch their bids.

One MP hoping to engineer defeat for Johnson is now encouraging colleagues to withdraw their letters of no confidence to avoid triggering a vote “by accident” as soon as Monday or Tuesday, the Guardian has learned.

The speed of the backlash against the prime minister after the Sue Gray report on Covid law-breaking in Downing Street has surprised many, given the lack of coordination by rebels. More than 45 Tory MPs have publicly questioned Johnson’s fitness to hold office.

Some MPs told the Guardian they intended to submit a letter calling for a vote on Johnson’s premiership on Monday, to reach the required 54-letter threshold to trigger a ballot but avoid overshadowing the Queen’s platinum jubilee this weekend.

However, those who are wargaming how such a vote would play out are conflicted about the best time to force it.

Some said they were concerned that would-be leadership candidates had not yet mobilised supporters to summon the 180 votes needed for Johnson to lose a no-confidence vote.

They fear that if Johnson wins the contest narrowly, he will refuse to step down and will be protected for a year. They reason that MPs should hold off submitting letters until after two byelections on 23 June, viewed as tests of the prime minister’s election-winning abilities.

A source said Johnson still had the cabinet “wrapped around his finger” and that ministers viewed as being potential successors were “all too scared”.

Others are frustrated the campaign to oust Johnson has dragged on for months, and believe the aftermath of the Gray report is the moment to challenge his authority. They hope that the prospect of a narrow victory for Johnson, that could leave the Tory party in paralysis in the runup to the next general election, will be enough to convince ministers to vote against him.

An agitated rebel lamented the lack of coordination among those who want Johnson out, saying: “Give me a Bond villain, for Christ’s sake.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/02/boris-johnson-tory-rebel-mps-no-confidence-letters-gray-report

In a way, a narrow win for Johnson would be the best possible outcome for the opposition of all shades.

Let’s go with that?

There was a lot of booing from the crowd, when he and his wife turned up at St Paul's:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/queen-jubilee-boris-johnson-booed-b2093324.html

Whitewavemark2

In a way, a narrow win for Johnson would be the best possible outcome for the opposition of all shades.

Let’s go with that?

I am really struggling to understand why you want Mr.Johnson to win a vote of no confidence?

You have been vociferous in your opposition to him and his policies and wanting him to jump , now you want him to stay.

Because Johnson is currently the oppositions (and by that I mean all parties) best weapon as he lurches from one disaster to another. And (from a personal point of view) the more people get to know him better the more they’ll realise that his brexit promises were all based on lies and misinformation.

I think many Tory MPs are still sounding out their electorate and are wondering if they will lose their seats if The Defendant remains in power. Self Preservation, as always.

GrannyGravy13

Whitewavemark2

In a way, a narrow win for Johnson would be the best possible outcome for the opposition of all shades.

Let’s go with that?

I am really struggling to understand why you want Mr.Johnson to win a vote of no confidence?

You have been vociferous in your opposition to him and his policies and wanting him to jump , now you want him to stay.

I’m completely torn.

I loath what he has done to my country, and i am not confident that there is another Tory up to the job who is likely to be voted in. My preference would be a traditional Tory like Rory Stewart or Dominic Grieve. However I am not a Tory supporter and would prefer that they are voted out at the next election, but, there is no denying the danger if a new leader “bump” in the polls which could possibly see the Tories rather terrifyingly in for another term.

I therefore think that this is less likely if the Tories go into an election with Johnson at the helm.

So that is my dilemma ?

Whitewavemark2

In a way, a narrow win for Johnson would be the best possible outcome for the opposition of all shades.

Let’s go with that?

I agree. However, Johnson seems to be working to ensure there is no vote. He cannot want one, win or lose. Even if he wins, we will all be aware of the balance of numbers wanting him out.

Remember the vote is secret. Ministers and even Cabinet Ministers can vote without that vote ever being revealed. This is not the same when 'putting a letter in'. That is secret until it reaches the magic number and then the writers become known to the senior members of the 1922 Committee.

I have seen comments that the letters have reached 54 but Graham Brady is holding the information back until after the Jubilee weekend. Also, those "in the know" have been reporting that Boris is spending the bank holiday ringing likely letter writers and offering them jobs if they withdraw their letters.

It is certainly the case that Johnson could win a confidence vote. However, we can all remember what happened to Mrs May. Johnson will undoubtedly remember it.

If a vote is going to happen, Johnson will want it to take place before the by-elections. Currently, it's expected by all that the Tories will lose both seats. The question is, how badly? Whatever the parties think the Tories may not lose them. There is a very big unknown to deal with.

I don't think I have heard of anyone, or any group, who wants him to stay because of his policies and principles. Indeed, it would be interesting if we knew what they were. Once they start to think he will lose them their seats they will want to dump him. After all, that is all he is good for - or not.

Polls predict a heavy defeat for the Tories, in Wakefield, on 23rd June.

Labour have, apparently, a 20% lead.

It's also thought that the LDs have an excellent chance of taking Tiverton, on the same date.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/poll-tory-byelection-loss-prime-minister-b2094149.html

Thank you for the link DiamondLily. I do hope they don't declare the vote on Johnson's leadership before the two elections.

DaisyAnne

Thank you for the link DiamondLily. I do hope they don't declare the vote on Johnson's leadership before the two elections.

So do I. The rebels have much more chance succeeding if the Tories do lose these by-elections.

But, I am a bit conflicted, as I really think Johnson is one of Labour's greatest assets, looking forwards to the GE.

If they do get anyone trustworthy and competent, then who knows?

Some Tory rebels are also threatening to hold "vote strikes":

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10885745/Boris-Johnson-faces-80-chance-leadership-challenge-elections.html

Question

If Johnson loses the confidence vote, can he do a Trump and refuse to budge?

DiamondLily

DaisyAnne

Thank you for the link DiamondLily. I do hope they don't declare the vote on Johnson's leadership before the two elections.

So do I. The rebels have much more chance succeeding if the Tories do lose these by-elections.

But, I am a bit conflicted, as I really think Johnson is one of Labour's greatest assets, looking forwards to the GE.

If they do get anyone trustworthy and competent, then who knows?

Some Tory rebels are also threatening to hold "vote strikes":

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10885745/Boris-Johnson-faces-80-chance-leadership-challenge-elections.html

The strange thing is man of the rebels are doing so because they think Johnson locked down too hard and aren’t giving them the brexit they wanted. Not because he’s an untrustworthy liar ( well, I suppose he lied about the brexit he was going to deliver).

MB70. Yes, there doesn't seem to be one issue. Predominantly, I suppose it's about them worrying about their own seats.

Some think he's too socialist, some think he's too soft on immigration, some think he's a liar and a liability.?

It’s rumoured that there are already 67 letters www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-boris-johnson-weather-the-coming-storm-tbcj89fjn

MayBee70

DiamondLily

DaisyAnne

Thank you for the link DiamondLily. I do hope they don't declare the vote on Johnson's leadership before the two elections.

So do I. The rebels have much more chance succeeding if the Tories do lose these by-elections.

But, I am a bit conflicted, as I really think Johnson is one of Labour's greatest assets, looking forwards to the GE.

If they do get anyone trustworthy and competent, then who knows?

Some Tory rebels are also threatening to hold "vote strikes":

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10885745/Boris-Johnson-faces-80-chance-leadership-challenge-elections.html

The strange thing is man of the rebels are doing so because they think Johnson locked down too hard and aren’t giving them the brexit they wanted. Not because he’s an untrustworthy liar ( well, I suppose he lied about the brexit he was going to deliver).

If that’s true MayBee70 they must be MPs who haven’t publicly said they have submitted letters, as the majority of those who have are not on the right of the party. Were any hints given as to who is rebelling from the right?

He may get thruogh the vote but he will be weakened. What worries me is that any Tory replacement could well be worse.

Whitewavemark2

Question

If Johnson loses the confidence vote, can he do a Trump and refuse to budge?

You may be able to hear the cogs whirring in my brain WWM.

This would be a vote of no confidence by the Tory Party in its leader. He could not remain as their leader as their rules would not allow it.

I don't know if "a person" could remain as PM. He wouldn't have the backing of parliament to do so. If he tried, would they be able to have a parliamentary vote of no confidence or would that have to be in the government? The Tories would win a no confidence votes because of their numbers.

It would be both messy and ridiculous but that hasn't stopped him in the past. I think we would end up relying on Tory Party rules - which they could, presumably change if necessary.

Casdon

MayBee70

DiamondLily

DaisyAnne

Thank you for the link DiamondLily. I do hope they don't declare the vote on Johnson's leadership before the two elections.

So do I. The rebels have much more chance succeeding if the Tories do lose these by-elections.

But, I am a bit conflicted, as I really think Johnson is one of Labour's greatest assets, looking forwards to the GE.

If they do get anyone trustworthy and competent, then who knows?

Some Tory rebels are also threatening to hold "vote strikes":

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10885745/Boris-Johnson-faces-80-chance-leadership-challenge-elections.html

The strange thing is man of the rebels are doing so because they think Johnson locked down too hard and aren’t giving them the brexit they wanted. Not because he’s an untrustworthy liar ( well, I suppose he lied about the brexit he was going to deliver).

If that’s true MayBee70 they must be MPs who haven’t publicly said they have submitted letters, as the majority of those who have are not on the right of the party. Were any hints given as to who is rebelling from the right?

I’m afraid I can’t remember where I read it. It just gave a list of MP’s that had called for his resignation and the reasons why they did so and it really surprised me. I’ll try to find it.

Just read that there are at least 67 letters in.

Reported by Paul Mason

Whitewavemark2

Just read that there are at least 67 letters in.

Reported by Paul Mason

I posted that with a link upthread

?

“Grant Schapps this weekend is the first senior Minister to use a new line that is being trialed,

'I didn't vote for Brexit but the country did'.

We can expect to hear this a lot as the government transitions to a rejoin single market and CU position.”