The Brexit Effect

“Taking back control” is going well isn’t it?

mobile.twitter.com/EnglishmanAdam/status/1592275353736998912

For those who don't want to click through...it says:

"Project Fear = Project F***ing told you so"

John Major lacks passion when he speaks, but every word is true. Still today, many are still trying to mock and ridicule those of us who fought for remain, and to this day and forever, will say it was NOT the will of the people, NOT democratic, and was based on lies. But slowly but surely, the wheels are turning, fewer and fewer are still prepared to stand by their vote to leave, and more and more are realising what John Major says here, is true. We will know more about more pain to be inflicted on us all tomorrow. Combined with rising prices, energy costs going literally through the roof, it will hurt, hard.

youtu.be/pwyOqfqcadY

Even some Tories are breaking ranks and tentatively putting their foot in the Brexit criticism pool.

I see that for the first time in its history the U.K. stock market is smaller than the French stock market.

Fleurpepper that's a James O'Brien clip at 8:55, is that what you intended to post?

Just how much pain we will see tomorrow, so far it sounds like austerity by any other name, I would like to think there will be some spending to encourage growth.

Brexit is a fact of life, don’t expect any change with this government, settling the Ukraine crisis would make it easier but I really don’t see that happening either.

volver

Fleurpepper that's a James O'Brien clip at 8:55, is that what you intended to post?

No it wasn't- but it is a good'un, for sure. The boss of NEXT is totally delusional and dishonest too probably a mix of both.

Here is the speech by John Major

fb.watch/gP6dJKZ6oJ/

People wonde why and ridicule the fact some of us are 'obsessed' by Brexit, and won't let it go. However, more and more people are coming to realise it was a humongous mistake, and that the country, and all of us, will pay the price. Some more than others, that is true. The poorest will pay the most. And some of us, for one reason or another, see our lives turned upside down because of it- with the whole of our future plans changed probably forever.

And it will be the most difficult mistake to correct, and probably totally impossible. Our grand-children will pay the heaviest price. Will they ever forgive us. I am so pleased they know that we did everything we could to stop it happen- and ours have 2 sets of escape keys, the lucky ones.

Thanks Fleurpepper. Both those clips are very good.

Several months ago I posted that I would never forgive those who voted for Brexit and that I could never be friends with someone who did. I got the "remoaner" jibe, and told to give it up, it's not good for me etc.

I haven't changed my mind. I agree with John Major.

volver

Thanks Fleurpepper. Both those clips are very good.

Several months ago I posted that I would never forgive those who voted for Brexit and that I could never be friends with someone who did. I got the "remoaner" jibe, and told to give it up, it's not good for me etc.

I haven't changed my mind. I agree with John Major.

I think calling folks remoaners is childish.

I was well and truly on the fence regarding Brexit until I spoke to our AC all of whom were voting to leave and as many on here say it would be their future Brexit/remain would impact.

Hence I voted leave, I am not over impressed with how successive PM’s have handled the negotiations. I have exceptionally strong feelings regarding David Cameron for not ensuring /tying up all the loose ends of the referendum and consequently running away from the result.

How do your children feel about it now, GG13?

Wolfson (Next). Interestingly his wife has just been appointed as some sort of adviser to Sunak.

GrannyGravy13

volver

Thanks Fleurpepper. Both those clips are very good.

Several months ago I posted that I would never forgive those who voted for Brexit and that I could never be friends with someone who did. I got the "remoaner" jibe, and told to give it up, it's not good for me etc.

I haven't changed my mind. I agree with John Major.

I think calling folks remoaners is childish.

I was well and truly on the fence regarding Brexit until I spoke to our AC all of whom were voting to leave and as many on here say it would be their future Brexit/remain would impact.

Hence I voted leave, I am not over impressed with how successive PM’s have handled the negotiations. I have exceptionally strong feelings regarding David Cameron for not ensuring /tying up all the loose ends of the referendum and consequently running away from the result.

I too could see issues with the EU and had to think very carefully about how I voted. I am a natural middle of the road person so not surprised I felt like that. In the end I found it easy. Having listened to those who held strong views in each direction I could not see that "Brexit", whatever that meant to those who wanted it, would survive reality.

I still feel much the same as I always did. I would like to see us back in the Customs Union, although it will take time to get to that point.

Where the political side is concerned, I still have my doubts. Most of that comes from my doubts about our own democratic system which I feel needs a huge "drains-up". We managed to send some of the weakest politicians (as in laziness and wideboy tactics) and I did not have any sense of them being sent by our overall system of government. It was almost as if our governments switched off from governing in some areas.

None of that, however, made it worth leaving when it came to my vote. It does mean I understand the conflicted voter more than I understand either of the extremes.

We can certainly say loud and clear now- without any doubt whatsoever, that no-one, just no-one, from the Government, Ministers, MPs and all of us the people knew what they were voting for.

So many MPs, businessmen, farmers, fishermen, and on, and on, and on - now say 'THIS is not the Brexit I voted for'. Brexit was totally unclear, totally loose, and based on so many lies and deception- and once voted for, could transform in any kind of beast imaginable, or worse, un-imaginable.

Cheesemaker sells firm to overcome Brexit barriers after losing £600,000 in sales

A British cheesemaker has sold his business to a larger rival to regain access to customers in the European Union after Brexit left him with an estimated £600,000 black hole in lost EU sales.

Simon Spurrell, who made headlines when he highlighted prohibitive export costs after the UK’s exit from the single market, will remain managing director of the Macclesfield-based Cheshire Cheese Company and retains a stake in the business.

Its new owner, fellow family-run north-west England producer Joseph Heler Cheese, has maintained a presence in the EU as a result of its larger operations and distribution hub in the Netherlands, which Spurrell hopes will make supplying European customers viable again.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/15/cheesemaker-sells-firm-to-overcome-brexit-barriers-after-losing-600000-in-sales

Aveline

A nationwide day of protest and strikes in France. All is not well in the EU. I voted to remain in case anyone thinks I'm a brexiteer. Important to note that it's not just GB struggling these days. Putin must be happy. ?

Not all is well in the EU. That is true. They have been affected by the pandemic, by world events and the war in Ukraine, just like us.

But no other country has added the massive own goal that is Brexit, and no other country has totally failed to recover.

And of course we all know the French don't sit around on their hands when things are tight- but go on strike.

And yes, this is just what Putin wanted. Why do you think he took so much trouble, and spent so much money, interfering with the vote and supporting/buying pro Brexit groups!

I've read of other examples where companies have moved abroad in order to deal with exports but it shouldn't have to be like that.

Has anyone seen what George Eustace has said in Commons about our duff trade deal with Australia and N Zealand?
“Since I now enjoy the freedom of the back benches, I no longer have to put such a positive gloss on what was agreed”.

MaizieD

How do your children feel about it now, GG13?

Sorry for delay in answering MaizieD I have been to the opticians.

AC all stand by their decisions.

Varian I know a young man from Yorkshire who was a true Ambassador for British cheeses all over Europe. He opened a shop, and gave tastings, conferences, wrote article for the Press and specialised magazines, etc. VERY successful and imported and sold tons of the best of British. He opened people's eyes in Europe about how brilliant, varied and amazing British cheeses are, and how they can truly compete with the best.

After Brexit, he tried to make it work- but it was just too complicated and costly and gave up. He now sells the best of British in the best cheese places in London, but exports have had to stop. A huge blow for the best cheese makers.

GrannyGravy13

MaizieD

How do your children feel about it now, GG13?

Sorry for delay in answering MaizieD I have been to the opticians.

AC all stand by their decisions.

Which has to be respected, of course. Even though it is very hard, now that we know the massive and long-term damage it is causing, to the economy and to individuals, to understand.

I wonder, and of course you may choose not to reply. Are they not affected by the consequences? Are they not concerned about the effect it will have on their own childrens' future?

For me Brexit has gone pretty much as I expected, I didn’t believe any of the potential benefits and when Brexiteers started talking about “cherry picking” I knew that was totally unrealistic.

“Oh well we will survive if nothing else happens,” then Covid happened, then Ukraine, now we are very vulnerable to a serious recession. If we thought austerity was bad under Cameron, get prepared for much worse because the hole we are in now is going to be very difficult.

I'm in France hadn't noticed it was a strike day

Farzanah

Has anyone seen what George Eustace has said in Commons about our duff trade deal with Australia and N Zealand?
“Since I now enjoy the freedom of the back benches, I no longer have to put such a positive gloss on what was agreed”.

A propos of this I was following a twitter thread by historian, Robert Saunders, on the way that the Aus trade deal had been deliberately rushed through parliament with no scrutiny, when I came a cross a response which referred back to Philip Hammond's in depth interview on the 'Brexit Witness Archive' web page, which has transcripts of in depth interviews with key people from either side of the Brexit divide.

Anyway this one with Hamond is very interesting and reveals some shocking detail. Most shocking for me is this, about the conference speech May made in 2016 which ruled us out of the Single Market and the CU:

(Hammond) Look, what happened, I was completely stunned by the speech that she made at the Conservative Party Conference in October 2016. I hadn’t seen the relevant part of it in advance. I’d had no input to the speech. Nick Timothy kept me completely away from it. I did see some text on the economy the day before, but I had no idea that she was going to describe Brexit in the hardest possible terms.
My assessment of Theresa May’s Prime Ministership, in terms of Brexit, is that she dug a 20-foot-deep hole in October 2016 in making that speech and, from that moment onwards, cupful by cupful of earth at a time, was trying to fill it in a bit so that she wasn’t in such a deep mess.
Remember, the complex narrative about the nuances of Brexit and so on came much later, so I’m not even sure that she understood, as she was delivering that speech, how extreme the words coming out of her mouth really were. I think if she’d understood, if she realised that she was lining up people like me and metaphorically kicking us in the groin, I don’t think she would have done it. I don’t think that was her intention.

UKICE (interviewer): Was it not, though, to some extent a function of the fact that she, perhaps because of her experience as Home Secretary, interpreted the referendum result as all about immigration? Therefore, leaving the Single Market was almost the ‘sine qua non’ of respecting the referendum result.

PH: Part of Theresa May’s challenge – she’s not going to like me saying this, but if we’re doing a historical record – was that her experience was exclusively in the Home Office. She was the world’s leading expert on everything to do with security and immigration. You couldn’t touch her on it. There was no point even arguing with her on it, but she didn’t have a well-rounded view of the economy.

Because the Prime Minister was obsessed by migration, as were a sizeable chunk of the Tory Party. Even people who weren’t in the extreme wing of the party were very nervous about delivering something on migration. I also think most colleagues – political colleagues – frankly, have only a really rather tenuous grip on, or interest in, how the economy works, and were not particularly taken with the argument that we need these people.

This interview was in 2020. I think that Hammond's concluding words have been completely confirmed now as pretty accurate.

History will decide. I think I said at the beginning of this interview that the terrible thing here is that I am pretty sure that, in the end, the one thing I can guarantee is that, whether we have a no deal Brexit or a hard Brexit with a deal, the price, the cost that that imposes on the economy, will be pretty much 100% absorbed by exactly the demographic profile that voted Leave and then voted Boris Johnson, having never voted Tory before, in December 2019. I’m pretty sure that is almost exactly the definition of the people who are going to bear the costs of Brexit.

ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-witness-archive/philip-hammond/

What shocked me so much was the fact that May delivered that speech and was completely unaware of its implications and possible repercussions (it caused a steep drop in the value of sterling for a start).

The whole interview is long, but really well worth reading. I've just taken out a few extracts. The other interviews on the site are worth reading, too.

Hammond strikes me as being a politician in the John Major mode. One of those decent tories lost to the nation....

The twitter thread that led me to this interview was this one:

twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1592457143676207104