The Brexit Effect

Aveline

A nationwide day of protest and strikes in France. All is not well in the EU. I voted to remain in case anyone thinks I'm a brexiteer. Important to note that it's not just GB struggling these days. Putin must be happy. ?

The same here Aveline
Economies are bad everywhere at the moment, it is really impossible to weed out the effect of Brexit and blame it all on that.The pandemic and Putin have had a terrible effect.
Mr Starmer will not want us to join the EU again of course.
It will take so many more years to tell the effect of leaving.

This what a outer, pointing to global financial problems, in no way indicates Brexit was anything but a disaster for the UK.

Prentice

Aveline

A nationwide day of protest and strikes in France. All is not well in the EU. I voted to remain in case anyone thinks I'm a brexiteer. Important to note that it's not just GB struggling these days. Putin must be happy. ?

The same here Aveline
Economies are bad everywhere at the moment, it is really impossible to weed out the effect of Brexit and blame it all on that.The pandemic and Putin have had a terrible effect.
Mr Starmer will not want us to join the EU again of course.
It will take so many more years to tell the effect of leaving.

No-one is denying there are issues in the EU- Italy is in a right mess at the moment. And yes, issues in France too. Covid, war in Ukraine, and other factors have all played a rôle.

The UK however, fact, has had that other massive factor, Brexit- which has made it all much much worse. This is abundantly clear.

Excellent article in the Observer today, tracing the disaster that has been the Conservative party over the last 12 years.

From Cameron’s austerity decision, which ensured poor growth and increasing inequality. Interest rates were, throughout his tenure, at zero, but he absolutely failed to take advantage of this and rebuild the infrastructure and industries so badly needed in the north. The balance was far too tilted to the south and they never understood the necessary re-balancing that was needed.

This lead directly to Brexit, when people were easily persuaded by siren arguments that immigration and the need to take back control plus of course the lie that was the £350million.

The continued disaster and worsening crises that is the Tory party is as a direct result of this Brexit farce, plus of course their sheer incompetence, but nothing is able to mitigate the effects of Brexit.

Prentice

Aveline

A nationwide day of protest and strikes in France. All is not well in the EU. I voted to remain in case anyone thinks I'm a brexiteer. Important to note that it's not just GB struggling these days. Putin must be happy. ?

The same here Aveline
Economies are bad everywhere at the moment, it is really impossible to weed out the effect of Brexit and blame it all on that.The pandemic and Putin have had a terrible effect.
Mr Starmer will not want us to join the EU again of course.
It will take so many more years to tell the effect of leaving.

I haven't seen anyone, anywhere, blaming it all on Brexit. However, I have seen those who tied themselves to Brexit saying it has done no harm, or that other things are to blame.

It isn't difficult to see that Brexit has made things worse for us than they needed to be. It has made things worse than other countries have found it to be when they account for Covid and the War in Ukraine.

Starmer will not be able to rejoin the EU immediately. Now is not the time to be trying to have another great upheaval. It is the time, and I believe he will, talk politely and without the hubris of the present government, about mending our import and export rules so we can get back to proper trading relations with the EU. On that, we can build a new relationship with the group, whether it is to rejoin, or become more economically attached than politically. But that is for the future.

Repairing access to the EU market would, at least, allow a little less cutting of our already denuded services, welfare and pensions, and soften, just a little, the raising of taxes for all. This scenario is what this appalling Tory government will leave behind them or, should they remain in office, put into action.

All economic analysis shows that the UK is @ 30% lower than it would have been if it had stayed in the EU.
I don't think the real consequences of this has filtered through to the UK population yet. There have been too many distractions and avoidance tactics used to hide the reality. For example, the UK has still not implemented the required import and customs checks that is required by law and the NI protocol has still not been dealt with yet. The EU implemented all the changes immediately and has already absorbed the damage from brexit and can put it behind them and move on.
The people in UK have yet to face the real pain of their decision but that reality is fast approaching. Bon Chance!

Although I did not vote for it, it is clear that the timing of Brexit, unknown at the time of voting of course, came at what would be a bad time.Without the pandemic and the billions it cost for furlough and the downturn in the economy because of the lockdowns, and now what supporting Ukraine costs us as a country, this has indeed muddied the waters about Brexit.
It would only be clear water, had those two things not happened.
Mr Starmer cannot politically renege on the promise to keep us out of the EU, nor do I believe he would ever do so. The outrage in so many constituencies, and maybe the whole country makes it a hot potato.He has promised to make it work, which any PM will have to do.
In my view it is no good wanting to wind back the clock, reading anti-Brexit articles or bemoaning what has happened.
It may, or not, prove to have been a poor idea to have a referendum on this, but we did, and we have to accept that.
I think just now, the whole world, and especially Europe have more pressing problems.

Bon chance to all in Europe actually Normandygirl !

Starmer has not said that he would keep us out of the EU, he has said, however, that he will make Brexit work.

DaisyAnne

Prentice

Aveline

A nationwide day of protest and strikes in France. All is not well in the EU. I voted to remain in case anyone thinks I'm a brexiteer. Important to note that it's not just GB struggling these days. Putin must be happy. ?

The same here Aveline
Economies are bad everywhere at the moment, it is really impossible to weed out the effect of Brexit and blame it all on that.The pandemic and Putin have had a terrible effect.
Mr Starmer will not want us to join the EU again of course.
It will take so many more years to tell the effect of leaving.

I haven't seen anyone, anywhere, blaming it all on Brexit. However, I have seen those who tied themselves to Brexit saying it has done no harm, or that other things are to blame.

It isn't difficult to see that Brexit has made things worse for us than they needed to be. It has made things worse than other countries have found it to be when they account for Covid and the War in Ukraine.

Starmer will not be able to rejoin the EU immediately. Now is not the time to be trying to have another great upheaval. It is the time, and I believe he will, talk politely and without the hubris of the present government, about mending our import and export rules so we can get back to proper trading relations with the EU. On that, we can build a new relationship with the group, whether it is to rejoin, or become more economically attached than politically. But that is for the future.

Repairing access to the EU market would, at least, allow a little less cutting of our already denuded services, welfare and pensions, and soften, just a little, the raising of taxes for all. This scenario is what this appalling Tory government will leave behind them or, should they remain in office, put into action.

Indeed there are some here who refuse totally to see that Brexit has changed things massively, in so many ways. On another thread, I was accused of 'turning the thread political' because I mentionned that Brexit, very clearly and practically, made the situation very different and presented with many new issues 100% linked to Brexit. Beyond weird.

KS will be able to go to EU and calmly say 'look I have nothing to do with this mess- can you help me improve the situation'. And I think the EU will be only too please to try and put UK back into a form of access to Single Market and Customs Union- but it is also clear that that will, no question, have to include FMOP. Which is a good thing, as we desperately need more people to do the jobs.

He cannot make it work Whitewavemark2 by taking us back into the EU.
He will no doubt pursue a friendlier and more diplomatic stance with the EU though.

Prentice

He cannot make it work Whitewavemark2 by taking us back into the EU.
He will no doubt pursue a friendlier and more diplomatic stance with the EU though.

That is a big assumption.

However, joining the SM and CU appears eminently sensible, and that is what almost certainly will happen - it will give a £100bn immediate boost to the U.K. economy, why wouldn’t you do that?

I think that politics has shown us Whitewavemark2 that we cannot predict anything with certainty, and do not know what will or will not happen, it is just our own thoughts at this time.
But by definition, Mr Starmer cannot make Brexit work by taking us back into it.He can be more friendly with the EU which would help.

Brexit was voted for. Sadly however, along came the pandemic, lockdowns, eye watering furlough payments and distribution of effective vaccines.

Once the dust has settled a bit from all that, Brexit will be back on the agenda. Progress will be made eventually because we are not rejoining the EU. We will be trying more robustly to pull away.

The outrage in so many constituencies, and maybe the whole country makes it a hot potato.

What evidence do you have for that statement, Prentice?

The outrage over the Brexit vote led to 1million people marching in protest over it. Who took any notice?

He has promised to make it work, which any PM will have to do.

As Wwmk2 has pointed out, he can 'make it work' by taking us back into the Single Market and the Customs Union. Neither of which are 'the EU'. He hasn't ruled that out.

It would be hugely popular with business and boost our economy. And with the ever growing number of people who, polling tells us, think Brexit was a mistake...

Urmstongran

Brexit was voted for. Sadly however, along came the pandemic, lockdowns, eye watering furlough payments and distribution of effective vaccines.

Once the dust has settled a bit from all that, Brexit will be back on the agenda. Progress will be made eventually because we are not rejoining the EU. We will be trying more robustly to pull away.

Oh, the delusion is great in some...

Many Labour constituencies changed to Conservative more or less overnight MaizieD simply in order to get Brexit moving.
They wanted a government who would honour the results of the referendum.So it is not difficult to see that these voters would be outraged by a government that went back on their word.Yes, it is indeed a political hot potato.
It did not do any good to be outraged and march by the result of the referendum because it was a fair and democratic vote.
I did not like the result either, but it was a fair one person one vote choice and I do not believe in challenging that because it does not fit in with my own thinking.
Mr Starmer, if he does make it to Number Ten next time, may or may not take us into the single market.We cannot know.

Urmstongran

Brexit was voted for. Sadly however, along came the pandemic, lockdowns, eye watering furlough payments and distribution of effective vaccines.

Once the dust has settled a bit from all that, Brexit will be back on the agenda. Progress will be made eventually because we are not rejoining the EU. We will be trying more robustly to pull away.

"Sadly however, along came the pandemic, lockdowns, eye watering furlough payments and distribution of effective vaccines."
As it did for the EU and the world, so can you explain why the UK is now doing so much worse than any other advanced European and world economies?

It did not do any good to be outraged and march by the result of the referendum because it was a fair and democratic vote.

It was so far from being a 'fair and democratic vote' that it was admitted in court, by a barrister acting for the government, that, had it been mandatory, rather advisory, it would have had to have been re run.

So don't give me that nonsense.

Nothing fair about a referendum run on lies, cheating, 'dark adverts' and foreign money.

The results of the latest Opinium poll in today's Observer.

Re the political parties:

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer gives Labour a 27-point lead over the Tories, the largest Opinium has ever recorded. Starmer’s party is on 50% (up three points on a fortnight ago), with the Tories on 23% (-3), the Lib Dems on 9% (-2) and the Greens unchanged on 6%. The poll shows that about 30% of 2019 Conservative voters have moved to Labour. A fortnight ago that figure was 25%.

Re Brexit:

Only 29% of those surveyed think Brexit has gone well so far, while 60% think it has gone badly. A third (34%) think it has gone worse than expected, although 9% think it has gone better than they expected.

I was strongly remain. I think I understand why people chose to leave and there are and were problems in the EU. I like to think that most remain-voting people knew this.

I think that had we stayed in and been a voice and power for change/reform we could have done great things. It was a period open to EU changes and a head of steam was building for this.

The UK government however has spent too many years blaming the EU for anything negative in this country (deserved or not) and has taken all the credit for the extensive good/benefits that have come about because of the EU.
The EU was our government's scape goat.

Normandygirl and others sadly there is no point I think in trying to demonstrate the many differences between the UK and our European neighbours as being anything to do with Brexit as once committed to leave, most leave voters need to believe it was the right decision because it was a visceral one and you cannot change the way people feel.

I hope, that in my children's lifetime the UK will be able rejoin the EU and that my grandchildren will know the same benefits, opportunities and protections as I was privileged to have had. The whole episode has cast a dark shadow on us - and I think the divisions created by the vote has been unpleasant and harmful even for those who "won" out - as we all now live in an even more divided country.

MaizieD

^It did not do any good to be outraged and march by the result of the referendum because it was a fair and democratic vote.^

It was so far from being a 'fair and democratic vote' that it was admitted in court, by a barrister acting for the government, that, had it been mandatory, rather advisory, it would have had to have been re run.

So don't give me that nonsense.

Nothing fair about a referendum run on lies, cheating, 'dark adverts' and foreign money.

There is no need for rudeness MaizieD

Your last paragraph is interesting NotSpaghetti and in fact I do wonder if Scotland is in the same position, being a divided country because of referendums.

Prentice, Maizie's post was not rude at all.

It is nonsense! And catastrophic for this country. It has been proven beyond any doub that the campaign was run on lies, deception, and foreign interference and money- and even so, only won by a tiny margin which would have cancelled the result had it not been 'advisory'.

Our economy will never recover until we become working partners with the SM and CU again.