And the next prime Minister will be………

The BBC are reporting that Sunak has 112 backers, Johnson 49 and Mordaunt 21. As of 45 mins ago.
I might be wrong, but didn’t Boris Johnson support Liz Truss as PM?

MaizieD

^I know it was by Dr Limberg, Lecturer in Public Policy at King’s College.^

Thanks. I'll look him up, Dickens, there's sure to be a list of his publications somewhere.

Found it.

Here's the Abstract (which Dickens reported accurately). I'll post the link in case anyone would like to read the full, peer reviewed, paper

Abstract
The last 50 years has seen a dramatic decline in taxes on the rich across the advanced democracies. There is still fervent debate in both political and academic circles, however, about the economic consequences of this sweeping change in tax policy. This article contributes to this debate by utilizing a newly constructed indicator of taxes on the rich to identify all instances of major tax reductions on the rich in 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries between 1965 and 2015. We then estimate the average effects of these major tax reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We find tax cuts for the rich lead to higher income inequality in both the short- and medium term. In contrast, such reforms do not have any significant effect on economic growth or unemployment.

Our results therefore provide strong evidence against the influential political–economic idea that tax cuts for the rich ‘trickle down’ to boost the wider economy.

kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/files/166207939/Hope_Limberg_SER_2022.pdf

They’ve just said that it is thought that Johnson has over 100 supporters.

It may be the big mouths shouting off, but good grief!

If it ends up being Sunak against Johnson, the thought is that the idiot members who judgement is so good will vote for Johnson.

varian

I have just heard that Johnson noel has the support of 100 MPs

It’s not beyond him to bluff. He may have wanted to raise his profile, see what his chances might be, but have no intention of actually standing, thus putting more pressure on Sunak and setting himself up as the leader for later.

As I posted a couple of days ago. I got the impression from an interview with Graham Brady that the members would be 'consulted'. Which could mean that they'll just be ignored if they choose the wrong person...

He has reached 100. I can’t believe it. Not content with dividing the country with brexit he now wants to destroy the Conservative party. In retrospect he wouldn’t have cut his holiday short if he hadn’t been confident about the amount of support he had. Even the fact that, at a time of national crisis he was on holiday makes it surreal that some people regard him as a party leader who cares about this country. In his previous incarnations he hasn’t bothered to cut short his holidays when events have happened that needed leadership but when it comes to getting his old job back he’s on the first plane back.

MaizieD

As I posted a couple of days ago. I got the impression from an interview with Graham Brady that the members would be 'consulted'. Which could mean that they'll just be ignored if they choose the wrong person...

I thought that if one candidate reached 150 + by Monday 2pm they would automatically be PM, if not the top two will be voted on by MPs and Party members.

Conservative Party Members have received their emails with personalised voting passwords

MayBee70

He has reached 100. I can’t believe it. Not content with dividing the country with brexit he now wants to destroy the Conservative party. In retrospect he wouldn’t have cut his holiday short if he hadn’t been confident about the amount of support he had. Even the fact that, at a time of national crisis he was on holiday makes it surreal that some people regard him as a party leader who cares about this country. In his previous incarnations he hasn’t bothered to cut short his holidays when events have happened that needed leadership but when it comes to getting his old job back he’s on the first plane back.

It would be interesting to see how many times he has attended parliament as an MP since the beginning of this session.

Are his constituents willing to put up with this?

Guess who was standing outside a shop in my town. I’m not sure who the headless female is. ?

Unfortunately WWM2 unless his constituents are party members and vote next week (if there is one) they can do nothing until a GE

The alleged 100 backing Johnson have not made intention public. Apparently only 50 have come forward. According to the BBC, just now.

Whitewavemark2

MayBee70

He has reached 100. I can’t believe it. Not content with dividing the country with brexit he now wants to destroy the Conservative party. In retrospect he wouldn’t have cut his holiday short if he hadn’t been confident about the amount of support he had. Even the fact that, at a time of national crisis he was on holiday makes it surreal that some people regard him as a party leader who cares about this country. In his previous incarnations he hasn’t bothered to cut short his holidays when events have happened that needed leadership but when it comes to getting his old job back he’s on the first plane back.

It would be interesting to see how many times he has attended parliament as an MP since the beginning of this session.

Are his constituents willing to put up with this?

My thoughts preceded Chris Mason reporting on BBC News.

‘Scepticism on real extent of Johnson's support

Chris Mason
Political editor
Within moments of those around Boris Johnson claiming they have hit the threshold of 100 MPs backing the former prime minister, scepticism from other Conservative MPs.

"Hogwash", "absolute garbage", "clearly nonsense" are among the phrases being used.

Why?

Well, the publicly-declared number of backers is much, much lower and — bluntly — his track record when it comes to truth is patchy.

These races are all about generating momentum, even a sense of inevitability.

There are MPs inclined to back him but keen to keep their counsel for now — but you can expect a blizzard of demands that Johnson’s team produce a list if their claim is to be seen to be credible.‘

Just read that if say Sunak gets over 50% of the total Tory support. - 179 - then he gets the leadership.

Johnson should NOT be on holiday when parliament is sitting!! He is paid an mps salary and should be attending not swanning around. He is a disgrace in every respect.

I think Johnson is a committed hedonist and will never change. We have friends like that, good fun to be around, but so exhausting. Luckily they run their own business as no company could afford their easy come, easy go attitude, and totally unreliable.

Hunt has already ruled himself out.
I suggested Piers Morgan or Martin Lewis but both have said they wouldn't want to do it.
Ricky Gervais or James Corden have both also been jokingly suggested. So has Hugh Grant. I'm sure anyone of them would be better than most of the actual MPs.

Oh, not James Cordon!
I think his ego is as big as Johnson's.

He would probably want to sing about new policies.

Ricky would shake things up.

On the grounds that organised chaos is better than disorganised chaos I would rather they had Sunak.

Johnson's backers are saying he has over 100. I can't think why they imagine anyone will believe them. Only 50 seem to have declared publicly.

I did wonder if Sunak would refuse to stand if Johnson got over 100.

Do you mean they won't go out to the membership if it's over 179 Whitewave. They must be wanting to avoid that, but they have said they will get a vote.

Johnson thinks that he can win the next election for the Conservatives, I think he is more likely to lose it for them.

He is now a busted flush. The electorate have seen what a duplicitous nincompoop he is and after the way he ignored COVID rules, that he approved, I am sorry, his capacity to win elections has gone.

MaizieD

As I posted a couple of days ago. I got the impression from an interview with Graham Brady that the members would be 'consulted'. Which could mean that they'll just be ignored if they choose the wrong person...

Quite!

Whitewavemark2

Just read that if say Sunak gets over 50% of the total Tory support. - 179 - then he gets the leadership.

Same goes for Boris, though that is less likely. He is the members' favourite not the MPs'.

Farzanah

Whitewavemark2

I heard this morning, that Johnson will not put his hat into the ring unless he is pretty sure he can win??

My god this country is insane.

He won’t want to be seen as a loser twice. His ego is too big.

What do you mean twice? Boris won a members' vote, a general election and then a confidence vote. When put to a vote, Boris wins. That's why they had to get rid of him without a vote. They couldn't risk doing anything democratically.

M0nica

Johnson thinks that he can win the next election for the Conservatives, I think he is more likely to lose it for them.

He is now a busted flush. The electorate have seen what a duplicitous nincompoop he is and after the way he ignored COVID rules, that he approved, I am sorry, his capacity to win elections has gone.

In some ways it would be easier for Labour if they don't have a GE now. They could only make things better after yet another two years of the Tories. However, I have just been reading an article in this week's Economist on where cuts will be made and, although it is a tough position to put them in, I do want people who care about everyone to be making these cuts.

As always, they are long articles, but one sentence stands out. "But after a decade of squeezes and pandemic related backlogs there is little fat to trim." It then talks about the welfare bill looking vulnerable. With a party that seems to think the poorest can live on fresh air I am very worried.

MaizieD

MaizieD

I know it was by Dr Limberg, Lecturer in Public Policy at King’s College.

Thanks. I'll look him up, Dickens, there's sure to be a list of his publications somewhere.

Found it.

Here's the Abstract (which Dickens reported accurately). I'll post the link in case anyone would like to read the full, peer reviewed, paper

Abstract
The last 50 years has seen a dramatic decline in taxes on the rich across the advanced democracies. There is still fervent debate in both political and academic circles, however, about the economic consequences of this sweeping change in tax policy. This article contributes to this debate by utilizing a newly constructed indicator of taxes on the rich to identify all instances of major tax reductions on the rich in 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries between 1965 and 2015. We then estimate the average effects of these major tax reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We find tax cuts for the rich lead to higher income inequality in both the short- and medium term. In contrast, such reforms do not have any significant effect on economic growth or unemployment.

Our results therefore provide strong evidence against the influential political–economic idea that tax cuts for the rich ‘trickle down’ to boost the wider economy.

kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/files/166207939/Hope_Limberg_SER_2022.pdf

... great! Thanks MaizieD. I have so many reports, papers, etc bookmarked, stuck in 'favourites' etc - in complete disarray.

It stuck in my mind because of the length of the study.

Will read it anew. Trickle-down my foot... pah!

So, you don't think trickle down works? Presumably you think the poor now are as poor as our Victorian ancestors were.