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Shock result of latest polling

(118 Posts)
Granny23 Thu 09-Feb-23 10:39:14

A NEW poll has found that the Conservatives would become Westminster’s third party behind the SNP in a snap election. A poll of 28,000 people for The Telegraph found that if there were an imminent General Election then the Tories would be left with fewer seats than the SNP.

This would mean that SNP Leader, Stephen Flynn would become the leader of the opposition. The figures, from pollsters Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, report Labour winning 49 per cent of the vote while the Tories would win just 23 per cent.

The style of polling used means results could be calculated in individual seats. The SNP would win 50 MPs according to results while the Tories would have just 45, down from 365.
Meanwhile, the new polling forecast that Labour would gain 306 seats, taking its total number of MPs to a record 509 out of 650 available.

Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats would more than double their number of MPs from 11 to 23 while Plaid Cymru and the Greens would be unchanged at four MPs and one respectively.

The polling was carried out from January 27 to February 5.
On a seat-by-seat basis, 15 Cabinet ministers would lose their seats including Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Home Secretary Suella Braverman and former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss as well as ex-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

Chief executive of Find Out Now Chris Holbrook told the newspaper that the forecasts made “shocking reading for Conservatives”'
Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, added: “The Conservatives have been far behind in the polls for the last four months, with little sign of improvement.

growstuff Sun 12-Feb-23 07:52:16

PS. If the government creates money, what do you think happens to it? It creates growth! The problem comes when a government is reluctant to get it back by taxing and/or lets people who will squirrel it away get hold of it.

Katie59 Sun 12-Feb-23 09:35:38

If government money creates growth that is good, most of of does not, if it is used to buy food or pay rent or buy new shoes for the kids, it provides very little growth or tax revenue. With nearly 1/4 of the population below the official poverty line most of the borrowing is being used to support them.

Most growth is being achieve by commercial and domestic borrowing, most of us have a loan to buy a house a car, or most large items. State borrowing that provides commercial growth or tax revenue is very limited

jenpax Sun 12-Feb-23 09:49:19

Zoejory

I don't think it's a shock. Labour will win the next election.

Lets hope so! Its hardly a surprise the Tories are so unpopular!

Fereshtay Sun 19-Feb-23 12:48:08

Yes. Definetly Labour will win the next election

growstuff Sun 19-Feb-23 12:57:14

Katie59

If government money creates growth that is good, most of of does not, if it is used to buy food or pay rent or buy new shoes for the kids, it provides very little growth or tax revenue. With nearly 1/4 of the population below the official poverty line most of the borrowing is being used to support them.

Most growth is being achieve by commercial and domestic borrowing, most of us have a loan to buy a house a car, or most large items. State borrowing that provides commercial growth or tax revenue is very limited

How do you work that one out?

Of course money spent on food and new shoes can create growth. I don't even know where to start with this argument.

Maybe you'd like to explain what you understand by growth and just why it's inevitably a good thing.

It is absolute nonsense to claim that most borrowing supports people below the poverty line. Again, maybe you'd like to explain.

I don't think you even understand what state borrowing entails and what happens to the money "borrowed".

MaizieD Sun 19-Feb-23 14:12:22

Some 50 years ago, when I was at college, a lecturer pointed out that that state 'benefits' kept money circulating in the economy. That that was a good reason for introducing them.
It seemed so obvious that I just don't understand why people cannot grasp this fact.

What does Katie59 want? That people who can't 'earn' their money, or who are too old or ill to work, are left to starve? That the economy contracts even further so more people are put out of work?

Callistemon21 Sun 19-Feb-23 14:19:32

jenpax

Zoejory

I don't think it's a shock. Labour will win the next election.

Lets hope so! Its hardly a surprise the Tories are so unpopular!

Two life-time Tory voters told me last week that they would vote Labour is there is an election soon.

😲

Aveline Sun 19-Feb-23 14:33:45

Yes I hope Labour will win the next general election across the whole UK. Time for better governance especially in Scotland. Let's work together for the benefit of all our people.

growstuff Sun 19-Feb-23 14:36:09

The ONS reckons that prostitution and illegal drugs contribute £10 billion a year to GDP. So there's an idea! Increase growth by setting up a business selling crack and selling your body. If you can't sell your own body, set up a porn site!

Growth really is a silly measure of a country's wealth.

Grantanow Sun 19-Feb-23 14:37:32

The poll result is hardly a shock given the state of the economy, energy prices, cost of living, Brexit mess ups, etc. after 13 years of inept Tory government - 5 PMs in 14 years must be a record for a Party in chaos.

growstuff Sun 19-Feb-23 14:38:16

MaizieD

Some 50 years ago, when I was at college, a lecturer pointed out that that state 'benefits' kept money circulating in the economy. That that was a good reason for introducing them.
It seemed so obvious that I just don't understand why people cannot grasp this fact.

What does Katie59 want? That people who can't 'earn' their money, or who are too old or ill to work, are left to starve? That the economy contracts even further so more people are put out of work?

Some of the poorest people do work anyway, providing profits for those in the upper echelons.

Katie59 Sun 19-Feb-23 23:47:02

I want the government to borrow more to expand the economy, in recent times it has borrowed to support the population, as far as I can see that is going to continue with no proper business plan.

That does not mean more employment it means better employment by the use of new technology and automation. The so called service economy has only resulted in a decline in living standards especially for the poorest, or can someone point were it has benefited us

MaggsMcG Mon 20-Feb-23 19:04:06

Its a well known fact that people don't always tell the truth when asked these questions. It could be completely wrong.
I think the Labour Party will win. No one trusts the Conservatives any more. Its time anyway for a change. Just a matter of time Brexit and Covid have just made it inevitable.

growstuff Mon 20-Feb-23 22:32:19

Katie59

I want the government to borrow more to expand the economy, in recent times it has borrowed to support the population, as far as I can see that is going to continue with no proper business plan.

That does not mean more employment it means better employment by the use of new technology and automation. The so called service economy has only resulted in a decline in living standards especially for the poorest, or can someone point were it has benefited us

What do you mean by "so called"? What else would you like the provision of services to be called?

Providing services to other people benefits everybody's lifestyle. .

Katie59 Mon 20-Feb-23 22:48:47

growstuff

Katie59

I want the government to borrow more to expand the economy, in recent times it has borrowed to support the population, as far as I can see that is going to continue with no proper business plan.

That does not mean more employment it means better employment by the use of new technology and automation. The so called service economy has only resulted in a decline in living standards especially for the poorest, or can someone point were it has benefited us

What do you mean by "so called"? What else would you like the provision of services to be called?

Providing services to other people benefits everybody's lifestyle. .

Try telling that to be 23% of the population below the poverty line. Or nurses that are struggling with real wage cuts, you are so out of touch.

growstuff Mon 20-Feb-23 22:57:02

No Katie I don't think I am. By the way, I assume you realise that my income is in the bottom decile. I'm way below the poverty line.

growstuff Mon 20-Feb-23 22:57:31

I don't think you really understand what service industries are.

Hetty58 Mon 20-Feb-23 22:59:39

The UK is a rich country (still) with an unacceptable, increasing gap between the haves and have nots. There's not much pride left in being British. I just can't wait to get this bunch of clowns out of power and Labour (or anyone else) in charge.

MaizieD Mon 20-Feb-23 23:32:49

Katie59

growstuff

Katie59

I want the government to borrow more to expand the economy, in recent times it has borrowed to support the population, as far as I can see that is going to continue with no proper business plan.

That does not mean more employment it means better employment by the use of new technology and automation. The so called service economy has only resulted in a decline in living standards especially for the poorest, or can someone point were it has benefited us

What do you mean by "so called"? What else would you like the provision of services to be called?

Providing services to other people benefits everybody's lifestyle. .

Try telling that to be 23% of the population below the poverty line. Or nurses that are struggling with real wage cuts, you are so out of touch.

That is why, Katie59, the government needs to pay decent public sector wages and increase benefits to help with the cost of living crisis. They are withholding money for no good reason and depressing the economy.

I think that growstuff has a very good understanding of how an economy should work. In fact, I don't 'think' it, I know she does.

Katie59 Tue 21-Feb-23 00:07:43

Growstuff seems to think a service economy with ever shrinking productivity is enough, the last 50 yrs has proved that it isn’t.
The experiment has failed.

Granny23 Wed 22-Feb-23 13:37:12

I started this thread. For me the most surprising finding was that

^A NEW poll has found that the Conservatives would become Westminster’s third party behind the SNP in a snap election. A poll of 28,000 people for The Telegraph found that if there were an imminent General Election then the Tories would be left with fewer seats than the SNP.

This would mean that SNP Leader, Stephen Flynn would become the leader of the opposition^

I am surprised that in all the posts and discussion, no one has mentioned this aspect of the findings, nor the (perhaps more likely?) scenario, whereby Labour is just short of a clear majority and does a deal whereby the SNP (and maybe Plaid) support Labour, in return for permission to hold an Independence Referendum.

I remain baffled as to why most discussion on GN proceeds as if there were only 2 Political Parties in the UK confused

Casdon Wed 22-Feb-23 14:12:47

I’m guessing people don’t think that what you suggest is actually a likely outcome Granny23? It could change dramatically between now and the election, but as it stands currently Labour will have a majority.

MaizieD Wed 22-Feb-23 14:52:59

I remain baffled as to why most discussion on GN proceeds as if there were only 2 Political Parties in the UK

Isn't that because there are only two parties which are likely to win over all majorities, or be senior partner in a coalition?

I'd hope that other smaller parties do well in a GE, but I can't see it being a shock result on current polling.

paddyann54 Wed 22-Feb-23 17:09:16

Granny23 Satramer said live on radio last week that even if it meant another 5 years of Tory rule he would never work with the SNP .
Not that he'd be asked to !SNP have never voted on English only matters even before Camerons EVEL law.
Thats the EVEL law that stops Scottish MP's not only from voting on legislation that could have an effect on Scottish consequentials but Scottish MP's ever being PM .
Hoping we'll be walking out of the cesspit that is Westminster in the near future ,for a fairer,less corrupt ,more integrated Scotland in charge of ourselves.
Before our resident unionist comes out with more nonsense.the Scottish government has been subject to much praise about our NHS ...Best performing in the UK no strikes by nurses or ambulance staff and waiting lists lower than the rUK ...also much praise for the child payment meaning child poverty is more than 20% lower than in England ,the FACT that 10 years ago all of the "top ten"areas of most deprivation were in Scotland and now we aren't on the list ...all top ten are in England and much much more .All done on a fixed budget .
I know our resident unionist doesn't like these" handouts" she's said it before ,she'd prefer money going to the likes of Mone and Boris' pals .Most Scots think helping folk in need comes first
THATS why the SNP have won every election for a decade .
Hope all is well with you Granny 23

paddyann54 Wed 22-Feb-23 17:10:50

Starmer ,(keyboard sticking)