New polling for The Constitution Society has revealed the Labour Party would remain on course to regain all Red Wall seats and could expand its overall support if it said Brexit was a mistake. The polling suggests that the Party could even win an increased Commons majority at a general election if it made such a move.
At present, the Party is committed to a policy of making Brexit work. The Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has ruled out ever rejoining the EU, the Single Market or the Customs Union, or returning to Freedom of Movement. Starmer and other senior Labour figures who were previously pro-Remain now insist it is time to move on from the issue. They have maintained a position of not criticising Brexit despite evidence of public opinion turning increasingly against UK withdrawal from the EU.
Labour seems to be motivated by the fear that appearing to be anti-Brexit would risk its chances of regaining the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats at the next General Election. The ‘Red Wall’ label applies to constituencies which produced ‘Leave’ majorities in the 2016 EU referendum, and which Labour lost to the Conservatives in the 2019 General Election. Regaining lost ground in the ‘Red Wall’ is often regarded as being essential to a Labour return to power at the next General Election.
The poll commissioned by The Constitution Society and published today, though, finds that there would be no electoral penalty for Labour if the Party said Brexit was a mistake, and that it could even gain from doing so. With its present stance of ‘make Brexit work’, Labour is projected to win 527 seats in the House of Commons, a majority of 404. If it said Brexit was a mistake, its seats total could rise to 550. Labour is currently on course to sweep all 42 Red Wall seats. This poll reveals that the Party would still be on course to win all 42 seats if it said Brexit was a mistake.
consoc.org.uk/publications/red-wall-polling-2023/