I’m not counting my chickens

To be turned away does not mean that a vote was not made. It is possible in theory to return home and to find the appropriate id. Theoretically if not practically therefore as usual impossible to determine for sure!

M0nica

I have just being looking at the overall results. While the Conservatives are doing badly - as expected, Labour is not doing particularly well.

Only half the seats lost by the Conservatives have gone to Labour. The other half have gone to the Lib Dems and Green party. In fact those last two parties between them have won more new council seats than Labour.

The Conservatives have been wiped out on my local council. Labour disappeared some years ago. We now have 23 Lib Dems and 3 Green Party councillors

According to the Sky assumptions I posted earlier, these are likely to be the results and interpretation:

1,000 losses: A very bad night, with a third of all seats defended by the Conservatives lost. (Current actual losses 866)

Labour 450 gains: These results would be better than in 2022, when local elections took place in Greater London. (Current actual gains 451)

35 councils are yet to declare, so these are ballpark figures.

MaizieD

^How many people believe that voter fraud is a significant problem in the British electoral system, I wonder.^

Well, a few people on this forum seem to think that it is, though without any evidence beyond their belief. And I understand that this is a message being put about by some tories.. falling on receptive ears?

Quite.

But where's the proof - the high profile, prolific cases that have been unearthed?

It's a nonsense.

Sorry, Casdon but as results come out the gap between Labour seats won and seats won by Lib Dems and Greens grows larger and larger.

People are turning away from the Conservatives big time, but less than half are turning to Labour, the majority prefer something else. This cannot be be good news for Labour, no matter how tbey inteprete the figures.

M0nica

Sorry, Casdon but as results come out the gap between Labour seats won and seats won by Lib Dems and Greens grows larger and larger.

People are turning away from the Conservatives big time, but less than half are turning to Labour, the majority prefer something else. This cannot be be good news for Labour, no matter how tbey inteprete the figures.

I’m not disagreeing with what you say Monica, what I posted was merely a comparison of the actual position for each party with the prediction before the results came in on Sky News, I used their words, not my own.

Unfortunately, Sky hadn’t included the Lib Dems, a point I made in the original predictions post I made earlier this morning on this thread.

Tories now in disaster territory - lost over 1000 seats -

The Lib Dem’s and greens often do better in local than general. FPTP and tactical voting can influence at general elections. If the contest is between tories and Lib Dem’s, I’d vote lib dem, I wouldn’t ‘waste’ a vote on Labour/green/independent.

In the council elections, independents have done ok. They tend to be right wing in my experience

The Conservative party have certainly had a trouncing but is it because Labour is a government that will make a wonderful difference or just because the tories have been so bad.
Nothing about Keir Starmer fills me with any hope for the future so far.

Keir fills me with every hope for the future. Having said that, the Conservatives will have left the country in such a mess it won’t be a quick fix.

I wonder how much tactical, anyone but the Tories, voting there has been? It would go some way to explaining why the Tory losses weren’t gains for one dominant alternative.

People voted against the Tories because they are fed up with 13 years of Tory mess ups under BoJo and Truss but that does not translate into delight with Labour. Starmer has a long uphill road to No. 10.

I've just read that a "senior" Tory has warned Sunak that Boris Johnson is still very popular with voters...

Surely he must be joshing? Would the government really be that stupid?

Mind you, they did present us with Truss - and I've heard one or two still speak highly of her.

... and I do keep reading on various SM sites comments from an awful lot of people that are keen to "bring back Boris". But what ticket would he sail on? Brexit's done... he's yesterday's man.

They really are a Ship of Fools aren't they?

We still have way over a year to suffer this lot. They can do so much further damage in that time.

What an awful uphill battle the next government faces if it is a progressive one.

Turnout in 2019 general election was 67.3 percent.
Turnout in local election 2023 just under 40 percent.
Wouldn’t assume a Labour win in 2024 although coalition possible.

In the meantime, I hope Rishi Sunak stops making videos featuring football shirts. Seems his public relations team isn’t helping. Video indicates a big disconnect between Sunak and football, plus the group he might call the working class. Still at least we don’t have a complete liar at the helm so could be worse. Still waiting for the hospital locally. Plus the doctors and nurses.

I heard Emily Thornberry interviewed yesterday. She was criticised by the interviewer for stating Labour would need two terms to rebuild public services and the economy, for example. Getting your excuses in early, said the interviewer. She dealt with it well I thought, by summarising the awful mess Labour will inherit )if they win)
I’m beyond irritated by the way the tories keep repeating the old nonsense about the joke note saying there was no mo eh left. Claiming Labour can’t be trusted on the economy. This from a party that elected Truss who did more damage in two weeks than anyone thought possible.

It is difficult to know - local elections are traditionally a way of giving the government of the day a bloody nose if they are not coming up to scratch but then some Tories will respond to these results by realising that if they do not want a Labour government they will have to tick the blue box come the GE.

There was exactly the same note left by a Tory in 1964 as the one left by Labour in 2009.

It was/is a tradition to leave a silly comment by the outgoing government.

It is only the fools of Tories who have tried to use it to their own advantage.

After the coronation I think the real analysis will start. There’s an interesting article on Sky News this morning about the voting in the constituencies of cabinet members for example.

The fact that the number of seats lost was worse than the Tory hierarchy’s own worst case scenario of 1000 seats will be very concerning for the party, and it remains to be seen whether the ‘Boris will save us’ brigade gains any traction internally.

If that happens then people will vote for any alternative party that they think has any chance of beating the Tory candidate in that particular seat. I think we’re at the point where the majority would prefer any alternative to that.

It seems that the recriminations have already starting with one Tory blaming Braverman’s rhetoric and causing strive and division in the community

Whitewavemark2

It seems that the recriminations have already starting with one Tory blaming Braverman’s rhetoric and causing strive and division in the community

Good! It seems that at least one Tory (probably more) understands that Braverman's rhetoric is a sideshow to people's real concerns.

The best estimate so far for a GE result is Labour the biggest Party but about 30+ seats short of an absolute majority. Whatever the denials now that looks like a coalition of some kind. Of course there are unknowns between now and a GE in 2024 and Labour tend to do better in opinion polls than on the day. Looks like the Lib Dems will get to open the goody bag as they did with Cameron.

I’m fine with that. Back in the day when I was more politically active than I am now the Labour Party and LibDems worked closely together in my area. Their values are much closer to Labour than the Conservatives. The coalition with Cameron was a disaster and lessons have been learned from that.

Grantanow

The best estimate so far for a GE result is Labour the biggest Party but about 30+ seats short of an absolute majority. Whatever the denials now that looks like a coalition of some kind. Of course there are unknowns between now and a GE in 2024 and Labour tend to do better in opinion polls than on the day. Looks like the Lib Dems will get to open the goody bag as they did with Cameron.

We’ll have a better idea next week when they’ve done the more sophisticated number crunching I think, I’ve only seen the figures projected based on the actual seats fought for yesterday so far. I’ve had a quick look at the Lib Dem/Labour dynamic for seats, and I couldn’t see any seats where one or the other wasn’t way ahead of the other before yesterday’s election, so people definitely voted tactically. As well as whether the Tories can climb part way out of the mire, a lot will also depend on what happens in Scotland between now and the next election I would guess.

Whitewavemark2

But after all the years of watching the destruction of everything I and the majority it seems hold dear, at last there might be light at the end of a very dark tunnel.

The Tories are on course to lose over 1000 seats.

The madness of the past decade might be coming to an end.

Thank God! Being disabled I have gone through the humiliation of austerity under Cameron, Iain Duncan Smith and Ester McVile in charge of the DWP, and now they are hoping to get me back to work! I wish I could, as sitting here day in day out with nothing much to do, not affording to go anywhere or do anything is an existence, not a life .... couldn't even volunteer as if I couldn't manage to go and someone was relying on me would distress me ...

MayBee70

I’m fine with that. Back in the day when I was more politically active than I am now the Labour Party and LibDems worked closely together in my area. Their values are much closer to Labour than the Conservatives. The coalition with Cameron was a disaster and lessons have been learned from that.

Lib Dems should have never ever have allied with Tories as their values are so so far apart.

Just because they made a mess of this at the time, does not mean they should not make an alliance with Greens and Labour now- and ensure all votes in the GE are tactical. It would also force Keir Starmer to admit that much closer alliance with the eU should take place asap, including rejoining the Single Market, Customs Union and Free Movement. I'd be very happy to vote tactically to make this happen, in my area it would have to be Lib Dem.