Tories tearing themselves apart - how long to a GE!

It’s a very interesting time for the Tory Party for sure, and I can now see the rationale for Cameron’s appointment more clearly - I do think it was was of very few ways to reposition to make the party more electable. Despite what the right are saying, Sunak has more nous than they give him credit for.
think what Marr said about the election date is pretty accurate too, it’s going to be very interesting to watch it play out over the next year.

He certainly has more sense of who votes how than the right of his party Casdon. I imagine he intends to go for the election at a later date but I do wonder if it is actually in his gift.

DAR
A " centre democrat pivot" - yes, probably a more moderate governance would perhaps stand a better chance of uniting the nation, and might even improve our image on the world stage, too. We are watched in that respect and although some think "it doesn't matter what other countries think" because sovereignty is all, I believe our standing is important for all sorts of reasons - 'trade' among them.

Casdon
You might be right there. 'Re-positioning' the party surely will encourage those disaffected voters to return to the fold? If, indeed, this is Sunak's plan.

However, he has vowed to bring in emergency legislation, "I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights". The ECHR is considered to be the most effective human rights court in the world. The court is distinct from he EU - though it's sometimes confused with it, and Sunak's rhetoric is going to play very well with the Eurosceptics - hard-line Brexiters are already complaining about Cameron's appointment on that basis... they believe appointing a Remainer as FS is treason! So, there is that.

As you say, it's an interesting time for the party.

Personally, I don't want to watch the party tear itself apart - for the reason that it is not good for the country. It doesn't help the average citizen if they are in complete disarray, doesn't make their life any easier or do anything to compensate for the cost of living crisis. If we are to attract investors we need stability not a government fighting like rats in a sack!

However, he has vowed to bring in emergency legislation, "I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights"

He sounds as if he is almost threatening Starmer, Dickens, and the of HoL. I'm not sure the threat if a snap election if he stands in the way of his law changes is going to have much effect on Labour. I don't think Starmer has the power to stop him.

Why is Sunak spending so much money (£140M so far) and government time and suggesting we abolish all Human Rights Laws for all our citizens, to send 200 refugees to Rhowanda?

It's madness.

DaisyAnneReturns

However, he has vowed to bring in emergency legislation, "I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights"

He sounds as if he is almost threatening Starmer, Dickens, and the of HoL. I'm not sure the threat if a snap election if he stands in the way of his law changes is going to have much effect on Labour. I don't think Starmer has the power to stop him.

Why is Sunak spending so much money (£140M so far) and government time and suggesting we abolish all Human Rights Laws for all our citizens, to send 200 refugees to Rhowanda?

It's madness.

Why is Sunak spending so much money (£140M so far) and government time and suggesting we abolish all Human Rights Laws for all our citizens, to send 200 refugees to Rhowanda?

That is a very good question!

Do you think - knowing, as he obviously must - that he's losing credibility within his own party, and a percentage of the voters, that it's his last-ditch attempt at proving his 'credentials' with them... look-see-how-tough-I-can-be-on-delivering-my-promise?

And of course, waiting in the wings (so to speak) there's Farage - always ready to throw some brick-bats, and Tice's Reform Party who are going to field candidates against the Tories (I think?).

So, in that respect - he's going in the opposite direction to a return to more moderate Conservatism.

I don't think it will end well. I know there's a section of the public who think of themselves as the 'silent' majority - too afraid to 'speak out' (so they say) who will welcome his stance, but it's going to plunge the party into further chaos.

Also, do people know that as part of the agreement, we will be taking back from Rwanda a small number of vulnerable refugees? If they are to be removed from this Central African state - what does that say about its record on human rights, or the guarantees of safety?

And, is it a good idea to abolish all human rights for everyone just so this man can, basically, save his skin?

As you say, it's madness.

There is a lot to unravel here.

My first thought would be that Cameron must have been promised a reasonable time to rehabilitate himself before giving up any if the income streams he has set up for himself.* This would suggest Sunak is looking at next autumn.

However, picking a fight with Starmer and the HoL over Human Rights legislation might push him into a May election. I can only think his reasoning is something like "Johnson won a landside victory in the last election on a "get Brexit done" ticket, having decided on a snap election when he could not persuade Parliament to approve a revised Brexit withdrawal. If Sunak is following this path, picking a fight with Starmer and the HoL over Human Rights legislation might mean he is setting things up to say he has been pushed into a snap election in May on a "get Rwanda done" ticket.

A third thread that seems to weave through this is that he seems to have abandoned seats in the North, taking investment from them, in favour of his base in the south. He might be pursueded that those who were hoodwinked by what "Get Brexit done" would mean, could also be hoodwinked by "Get Rwanda done" being a solution to the growing international issue of those seeking asylum. This might be thought to be a way of stopping a complete wipeout.

*https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-foreign-secretary-lobbying-memoirs-b2446379.html There is a click through from this article to the appointments listed with the HoC).

I am inclined to think that it is more useful to look at what Sunak has done rather than what he says. Bringing in Cameron and other (relatively) moderate members to Cabinet is interesting. In the meantime, I suspect he is trying to keep the right happy, by grabbing headlines with suggested legislation that he has little chance of getting through, given opposition in the Lords and the time he has left.
We are told that there is a "silent majority" who are desperate to stop the boats, but polling does not really seem to reflect that across a wider demographic.
Perhaps a bit of realism is creeping in?

I see Cameron is talking about reinstating the aid budget that has been trashed recently. That will definitely not go down well with the right. “See to our own first” except that they don’t of course.

No amount of legislation that says Rwanda is a free and fair country will make it so. The world knows it and most of the voting public know it. And of course Sunak knows it, but after the Braverman debacle he is trying to sound tough. He knows that it will never work.

Well I am all for restoring the overseas aid budget and using it properly. I've got a couple of relatives that work for international charities and they have seen big cuts in their budgets. I'm also strongly for anything that brings the conservatives back from the far right but it's alarming that whilst they are talking about cutting benefits costs they are also talking about reducing inheritance tax. Take from the disadvantaged to give to the already wealthy, should be the other way round.

I thought this analysis of Sunak was interesting. He does do contradictory things that make him difficult to 'ready.

I don’t think that it is possible any more, if it ever was, to regard Sunak as an enigma, or even as a very inexperienced politician still feeling his way. Instead, I think it is now beyond reasonable doubt that his plasticity is not the shiny cover for some deeper core of belief or purpose, it is just all there is to him. It’s not even a matter of the familiar attempt of many politicians to be all things to all people and who end up pleasing no one. It’s just that there is less to him than meets the eye. There are no hidden depths, just a well-concealed depthlessness. He is impossible to read not because of any inscrutability of purpose but because, quite simply, there is nothing to read

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2023/11/?m=0

Thank you so much for that Maizie. I can only agree that the shiny surface of Sunak hides very little depth. I would have said there was a little of that about Cameron but he suddenly seems a man of more solid views. Will he out Prime Minister the Prime Minister?

(I'll read the main article later today)

DaisyAnneReturns

However, he has vowed to bring in emergency legislation, "I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights"

He sounds as if he is almost threatening Starmer, Dickens, and the of HoL. I'm not sure the threat if a snap election if he stands in the way of his law changes is going to have much effect on Labour. I don't think Starmer has the power to stop him.

Why is Sunak spending so much money (£140M so far) and government time and suggesting we abolish all Human Rights Laws for all our citizens, to send 200 refugees to Rhowanda?

It's madness.

Our rights were granted us by the Magna Carta. We had them always. We didnt need foreigners to tell us what we already had. It was Blair, with the encouragement of his meddling wife, that signed us up to the foreign courts.

To be honest I am not sure that what the left (whether that's centre left or whatever) think of Cameron coming back has a great deal of significance. We are not their target voters. The Tories will lose the next election and labour will be in power. It is what happens after that that is important. The Tories tend to have a few years of disastrous infighting after a defeat. Personally I would be watching the increase of the reform party vote and wondering what that means.

Galaxy

To be honest I am not sure that what the left (whether that's centre left or whatever) think of Cameron coming back has a great deal of significance. We are not their target voters. The Tories will lose the next election and labour will be in power. It is what happens after that that is important. The Tories tend to have a few years of disastrous infighting after a defeat. Personally I would be watching the increase of the reform party vote and wondering what that means.

I don’t know if you watched the link above from Andrew Marr Galaxy, but that was part of his supposition too, although he saw a potential reshaping of politics across the board in the UK, with a larger central ground and a marginalised and separate right wing party.

Freya5

DaisyAnneReturns

However, he has vowed to bring in emergency legislation, "I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights"

He sounds as if he is almost threatening Starmer, Dickens, and the of HoL. I'm not sure the threat if a snap election if he stands in the way of his law changes is going to have much effect on Labour. I don't think Starmer has the power to stop him.

Why is Sunak spending so much money (£140M so far) and government time and suggesting we abolish all Human Rights Laws for all our citizens, to send 200 refugees to Rhowanda?

It's madness.

Our rights were granted us by the Magna Carta. We had them always. We didnt need foreigners to tell us what we already had. It was Blair, with the encouragement of his meddling wife, that signed us up to the foreign courts.

Eh? Have you checked recently how relevant Magna Carta is to today? It was the result of foreign-born nobles wanting more power. They couldn't give two hoots about the rest of the population.

Incidentally, it was Churchill (with his foreign-born mother) who thought it would be a good idea if we shared laws and courts with pesky foreigners.

Actually the key advocate for the European Convention on Human Rights was Winston Churchill, but I don't suppose that would fit your narrative Freya?

Yes Carson I dont totally agree with him. I am not sure the centre of which I am part is cohesive enough and has a clear enough message.

Sorry Casdon not Carson

In my view the whole set up is total mess! All talk and not much - if any - positive action. It's shameful

There was an in depth interview with Keir Starmer on The News Agents podcast last night, he was interviewed by Lewis Goodall. I have recently changed my view of him. His transformation of the Labour party over a short period has been astonishing. Internal divisions are an ongoing issue within every political party and always have been. The conservatives were divided over EU membership for years and the issue brought down several PMs. Now that is done and dusted (except for the mess is has created) the Conservatives are laid bare with no sense of direction or vision for the future. This is bad enough but there is no compassion or aspiration either except to protect the wealth of the already wealthy. Jeremy Hunt is apparently considering reducing inheritance tax, this currently affects 4% of the population. Is this really their best offering to win the next election?

I agree that what Starmer has done has been nothing short of astonishing. I think I would quite like to see a bit more of the 'character' that made it possible, although perhaps we are seeing that in the current situation.

Casdon

Galaxy

To be honest I am not sure that what the left (whether that's centre left or whatever) think of Cameron coming back has a great deal of significance. We are not their target voters. The Tories will lose the next election and labour will be in power. It is what happens after that that is important. The Tories tend to have a few years of disastrous infighting after a defeat. Personally I would be watching the increase of the reform party vote and wondering what that means.

I don’t know if you watched the link above from Andrew Marr Galaxy, but that was part of his supposition too, although he saw a potential reshaping of politics across the board in the UK, with a larger central ground and a marginalised and separate right wing party.

I would be very surprised to see a separate right wing party because the extremists have a far greater influence as part the Tory party. Not so much now with a large majority but for Cameron and May with smaller majorities they caused a great deal of trouble.

Galaxy

Yes Carson I dont totally agree with him. I am not sure the centre of which I am part is cohesive enough and has a clear enough message.

I understand what you’re saying, I guess it depends if old party loyalties can be smashed apart, because there are a lot of people who are mildly centre right or centre left, but whether they could be persuaded that a new centre party would suit them is a moot point.

4% of estates, not 4% of the population.