Galaxy
He is likely to win, we can pretend that's not likely if you want, not sure what that will achieve.
I expect he’ll win the Republican nomination. I think it’s far from guaranteed that he’ll win the presidency.
There are obviously many push and pull factors for both candidates in all US presidential elections - it isn’t always just ‘the economy, stupid’ (Biden should win if it was) or the unpopularity of the incumbent (GWB would have been toast in 2004, when even my staunchly conservative town had declared against him, if that was so). I think the key factors this time will include the climate (young voters pro-Biden, older voters split) and Biden’s approach to the current Israel conflict, which has proved, from polls and community activists I know, fairly divisive.
I am actually torn: I disapprove of Biden’s positioning on that issue, but I’m probably more scared of the damage Trump will do to and in the USA and wider. I could just say ‘a plague on both their houses’ and do nothing (I volunteer for Democrats Abroad). I doubt I will, as I know that overseas votes are influential, but I do think one of the biggest risks for Biden is that people - particularly young and Black voters - don’t turn out to vote.
Sorry, that was a bit of an essay!
