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Follow the Polls

(710 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 07:29:20

I am not sure if it will be possible over the next 42 days, but I thought it would be fun to try to see. How the polls perform after the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make.

Whilst the gap is huge at the moment, it will almost certainly close as the days go by.

I think I’ll use Politico (poll of polls)

MayBee70 Tue 11-Jun-24 20:09:51

I don’t think the parties have got the money to pay for leaflets etc. Their election funding depends on how many votes they got in the last election ( at least that’s what I was told when campaigning, at the time, for the LibDems ).

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-24 05:36:54

This is a poll from Redfield and Wilton dated 10 June.

Labour 45% (+3)
Conservative 19% (–)
Reform UK 17% (–)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)

Politico -which is an average of all polls haven’t published any new data this week.

What does seem to be happening though is that Labour are not really moving or maybe a bit upwards. But the Tories seem to be losing out to reform and the Lib Dem’s.

As I previously said - poll below 20% and Tories are in whip out territory. So perhaps expect drastic action🙂 might liven things up a bit.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-24 08:39:25

Wipe😡

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-24 17:19:46

Politico poll of polls dated 10/06

Labour 44%
Tory 21%
Reform 15%
Lib Dem 10%

Casdon Wed 12-Jun-24 17:20:48

This is a really odd story.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o
It does make you wonder how secure the nomination system can be if it’s possible for the same person to stand in multiple seats - needs to be sorted.

Wyllow3 Wed 12-Jun-24 22:24:05

Tonight s TV debate - Starmer has upper hand.

"LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - British Labour leader Keir Starmer performed better than his election rival Rishi Sunak in live television interviews broadcast by Sky News on Wednesday, a snap poll by YouGov showed. YouGov said 64% thought Starmer performed better, while 36% thought Sunak had done better."

(the debate is reasonably well summarised on BBC I Player if you want a flavour) with some clips)

MayBee70 Wed 12-Jun-24 22:32:02

I watched the second half with Sunak but, after being traumatised by the last debate chickened out of watching it from the beginning. My partner phoned up after it ended to say how impressed he was with Keir.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-24 22:39:15

I dipped in and out. I thought Sunak looked tired and defeated, but Starmer was gaining in confidence as the programme went on.

I also think that moderate Tories will have been reassured by Starmer. His reply about the vat on private schools was excellent.

Poll

Starmer 64%

Sunak 36%

Wyllow3 Wed 12-Jun-24 22:48:08

It was far better they weren't "Debating" and had a chance to answer. More of this sort of interview with audience questions imo works best of all. Starmer relaxed a bit more I could see a really nice and decent person hiding in there.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-24 23:02:18

Rigby could have calmed her chuntering down a bit though.

MayBee70 Wed 12-Jun-24 23:11:00

Sky News seem to be doing their best to make out that Starmer didn’t do as well as I’ve heard he did.

Casdon Thu 13-Jun-24 07:07:36

Whitewavemark2

Rigby could have calmed her chuntering down a bit though.

I said the same on the other thread, I didn’t rate her interviewing technique, I thought she interrupted in the wrong places, and was unnecessarily rude to both of them - almost sneering in places.

Casdon Thu 13-Jun-24 07:11:17

MayBee70

Sky News seem to be doing their best to make out that Starmer didn’t do as well as I’ve heard he did.

He did well. One thing I’ve noticed is that he’s always taken aback by rudeness, he doesn’t brush it off easily. He was honest about what Labour weren’t going to do though, and didn’t promise the world, which I think is why he came out on top.

Iam64 Thu 13-Jun-24 08:07:21

Good point Casdon, on Starmer’s response to rudeness. His response to audience laughter when he mentioned his parents work and sometimes knowing the struggle to pay bills was to turn to the audience and point out that isn’t a laughing matter

MayBee70 Thu 13-Jun-24 11:21:33

Iam64

Good point Casdon, on Starmer’s response to rudeness. His response to audience laughter when he mentioned his parents work and sometimes knowing the struggle to pay bills was to turn to the audience and point out that isn’t a laughing matter

That audience laughter was childlike; and downright rude. Talking about his family and upbringing hasn’t come easy to Keir and it must hurt him when people respond in that way.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 13-Jun-24 11:32:20

I’m just watching the labour manifesto on bbc

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 11:37:24

Me too Whitewave.
“Chaos and division”. Mark your bingo cards!

Himself just said “god he’s boring. He’s a weathervane. But the Tories have shafted us so let’s hope Starmer manages to do some good but that said - remember he wanted to lock the country down for longer”.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 13-Jun-24 11:47:50

Urmstongran

Me too Whitewave.
“Chaos and division”. Mark your bingo cards!

Himself just said “god he’s boring. He’s a weathervane. But the Tories have shafted us so let’s hope Starmer manages to do some good but that said - remember he wanted to lock the country down for longer”.

Well, he is certainly not Farage - and thank god for that.

MayBee70 Thu 13-Jun-24 12:01:56

Urmstongran

Me too Whitewave.
“Chaos and division”. Mark your bingo cards!

Himself just said “god he’s boring. He’s a weathervane. But the Tories have shafted us so let’s hope Starmer manages to do some good but that said - remember he wanted to lock the country down for longer”.

And he probably would have locked the country down sooner and saved many lives in the process….

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 12:18:14

Beth Rigby “Are you Captain Cautious? There’s not much costed detail in this manifesto”.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 13-Jun-24 12:20:23

Blimey that was good!

He’s cracked it.

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 12:22:01

Blimey MayBee locking us down sooner and for longer? Further damage to the economy than we already had? And the MH that so many say they suffered made worse?

Glad he wasn’t PM sat the time then!

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 12:24:18

Yes indeed Whitewave he’s cracked it and he knows it. He’s relaxed (mostly) and über confident.

We are getting him and Rayner, Lammy, Thornberry, Aitken.

I’m used to the idea and I sincerely hope Labour do well. Why wouldn’t I? We live here!

growstuff Thu 13-Jun-24 12:27:41

Who's Aitken?

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 12:36:55

Apologies. Not Aitken.
Jonathan (the shirt button) Ashworth.