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Follow the Polls

(710 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 07:29:20

I am not sure if it will be possible over the next 42 days, but I thought it would be fun to try to see. How the polls perform after the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make.

Whilst the gap is huge at the moment, it will almost certainly close as the days go by.

I think I’ll use Politico (poll of polls)

Wyllow3 Thu 13-Jun-24 12:52:24

I also have just watched the Labour Party introduction. No rabbits out of hat, clear outline of policies, but one thing I've thought for a long time came out - and its been discussed locally many times).
For too long our politics have been centred around what Starmer called "cynicism, and hope beaten out of people". We've been stuck in a belief that things will always will be as they are, that growth is not possible as wealth creation for services.

On the day that waiting lists in the NHS have gone up yet again, Starmer offered a modest return to quote "politics have been too much about entitlement and not enough about service" to the people. He said judge us by our actions, as time passes. He will set up a professional ethics committee very soon as regards the conduct of those in public affairs.

Asked why the L party wouldn't "go further" in terms of aims on key services, in an interview afterwards (forget with whom) the answer was being realistic, not promising that which cannot be delivered until conditions allow it.

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 12:54:55

I wish them all the best. Honestly. If they do well we all benefit long term don’t we?

Wyllow3 Thu 13-Jun-24 13:05:13

We need a return to some hope, Urms, however modest.

The Labour Party full manifesto is here

labour.org.uk/change/

And it's easily accessible in terms of looking up particular issues. I don't agree with every word nor think all commitments might work out but I hear one thing Starmer said probably most strongly of all its sticks in my mind, "we are not going to return to austerity.".

Glad to see the director of Iceland on the platform representing business: glad that Starmer had brief digs on oppositions but no more than asides.

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 13:22:36

I agree Wyllow3. I’m not a tribal voter in any way. I’ve voted Labour (most times) in the past, believe it or not! I lent my vote to Boris to Get Brexit Done after the prevarication and abject capitulation by Teresa May. And look where that got me. Disappointed beyond belief. Boris thoroughly squandered that majority we gave him.

I’m voting Reform.

But I hope Labour surprise me yet. They’re the next government so I wish them all the best.

growstuff Thu 13-Jun-24 13:29:21

Urmstongran

I agree Wyllow3. I’m not a tribal voter in any way. I’ve voted Labour (most times) in the past, believe it or not! I lent my vote to Boris to Get Brexit Done after the prevarication and abject capitulation by Teresa May. And look where that got me. Disappointed beyond belief. Boris thoroughly squandered that majority we gave him.

I’m voting Reform.

But I hope Labour surprise me yet. They’re the next government so I wish them all the best.

How do you think a Reform government would benefit the UK?

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 13:34:06

You could look it up growstuff but just one example - Reform supports raising the threshold at which people start paying income tax from £12,500 to £20,000, and exempting the smallest businesses from corporation tax. And pensioners who have been caught up in what Liam Halligan (great economist) calls ‘fiscal drag’.

MaizieD Thu 13-Jun-24 14:09:14

Urmstongran

Blimey MayBee locking us down sooner and for longer? Further damage to the economy than we already had? And the MH that so many say they suffered made worse?

Glad he wasn’t PM sat the time then!

That's a load of rubbish, Ug. Lifted straight from arch liar, say the first thing that comes into my head, Johnson. Whose delaying tactics caused 1,000s of unnecessary deaths.

All Starmer called for was earlier lockdowns.

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 14:16:00

Not at all. I remember it myself when Boris called for an end to lockdown.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/19/keir-starmer-condemns-reckless-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 14:17:45

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/schools-closed-lockdown-england-starmer-b1782129.html

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 14:19:52

Pretty damning.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/01/labour-cant-hide-from-its-own-complicity-covid-lockdown/

growstuff Thu 13-Jun-24 14:20:13

Urmstongran

You could look it up growstuff but just one example - Reform supports raising the threshold at which people start paying income tax from £12,500 to £20,000, and exempting the smallest businesses from corporation tax. And pensioners who have been caught up in what Liam Halligan (great economist) calls ‘fiscal drag’.

I could look it up (in fact, I have) but I can't see any way that Reform would benefit the country. I was interested in your opinion, which I appreciate isn't the same as mine.

growstuff Thu 13-Jun-24 14:23:10

PS. Liam Halligan is a neighbour, whom I've met many times. He's certainly intelligent, but whether he's a great economist depends on your values.

growstuff Thu 13-Jun-24 14:24:47

So I would save a few pounds from not paying income tax on my pensions, but at what cost? Not impressed.

Wyllow3 Thu 13-Jun-24 14:44:40

Indeed Growstuff its just come up other thread ie taxing small amount on SP. We cant afford to give less for our essential public services.

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 14:45:34

Yes indeed Liam Halligan is very intelligent and explains economics very well to the likes of me. I really enjoy it when he is being interviewed and sit up and take notice.

Regards Reform, we will just have to agree to disagree. I’ve made my mind up as I’m sure you have.

To be honest I don’t think many people will read or care what’s in the Labour manifesto. It could just as well be stuffed with unicorns and rainbows. The main consensus this GE is just to give the Tories a good kicking. Fair enough.

Wyllow3 Thu 13-Jun-24 14:53:21

I disagree proudly with Reform policies on privatising health, I want to keep the NHS firmly in public hands. I dont trust Reform to look afterme and mine unless we have considerably more resources than we do.

Reforms NHS policies if one checks (Google Reform NHS)

come very close to the US model of as many people as possible with private insurance, or public money spent for profit-making health organisations

and we know from stories from the US just how ghastly dealing with private insurance companies who never pay out or who hake treatment mid cancer care to want to stand as far away as possible from that.

Wyllow3 Thu 13-Jun-24 14:54:12

halt not hake

growstuff Thu 13-Jun-24 15:09:06

Urmstongran I'm absolutely delighted that a usual Conservative voter is going to vote for Reform - I expect the Labour Party is too. It should ensure that opposition to Labour is split.

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 15:21:13

I know. I’ve heard that comment many times over the past month growstuff. Ah well. I want to vote Reform so, so be it. But you never know … if there’s a groundswell of support for Reform then a few MPs in the HoC would be wonderful. I think about 4 have been mooted as quite possible. And at least the Speaker would have to let them speak in Parliament. Be interesting to give them a platform.

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 15:33:07

Actually I’m not. usual Tory voter growstuff. I’ve only ever voted for them once when I lent them my vote.

Freya5 Thu 13-Jun-24 15:34:15

Urmstongran

Yes indeed Liam Halligan is very intelligent and explains economics very well to the likes of me. I really enjoy it when he is being interviewed and sit up and take notice.

Regards Reform, we will just have to agree to disagree. I’ve made my mind up as I’m sure you have.

To be honest I don’t think many people will read or care what’s in the Labour manifesto. It could just as well be stuffed with unicorns and rainbows. The main consensus this GE is just to give the Tories a good kicking. Fair enough.

What a hateful turn of phrase, "just to give the Tories a good kicking. " Shameful.

Urmstongran Thu 13-Jun-24 15:38:11

Not shameful at all Freya5.
What IS shameful is the complete disregard for most of us the Tory party have cavalierly displayed in the last 14 years.
They deserve to be hounded out of office.

Dickens Thu 13-Jun-24 15:46:34

Wyllow3

I disagree proudly with Reform policies on privatising health, I want to keep the NHS firmly in public hands. I dont trust Reform to look afterme and mine unless we have considerably more resources than we do.

Reforms NHS policies if one checks (Google Reform NHS)

come very close to the US model of as many people as possible with private insurance, or public money spent for profit-making health organisations

and we know from stories from the US just how ghastly dealing with private insurance companies who never pay out or who hake treatment mid cancer care to want to stand as far away as possible from that.

Reforms NHS policies if one checks (Google Reform NHS)

I just did.

Of course, there is some 'level-headed' thinking, and phrases we've heard before from previous governments - like this...

There is a broad consensus on what needs to change – less hospital care, more community and self-care

Fine words. As they were when care-in-the-community was introduced.

It's a good idea, in principle. How it would work under Reform is another matter. Public spending will not be high on their priority list.

J52 Thu 13-Jun-24 16:03:53

“To be honest I don’t think many people will read or care what’s in the Labour manifesto. It could just as well be stuffed with unicorns and rainbows. The main consensus this GE is just to give the Tories a good kicking. Fair enough.”

Actually I care and I hope they can pull it off. I don’t think giving the Tories “a good kicking” is acceptable. I’m just fed up with their version of running a country, with their lies, and poor economic management.

Siope Thu 13-Jun-24 16:10:49

It could just as well be stuffed with unicorns and rainbows

I think they were all used up by the Brexit campaigns…