Follow the Polls

Urmstongran

Actually I’m not. usual Tory voter growstuff. I’ve only ever voted for them once when I lent them my vote.

I'm a usual Tory voter and I and my husband are voting for The Reform Party. From little acorns big oak trees grow 👍

Dickens

Wyllow3

I disagree proudly with Reform policies on privatising health, I want to keep the NHS firmly in public hands. I dont trust Reform to look afterme and mine unless we have considerably more resources than we do.

Reforms NHS policies if one checks (Google Reform NHS)

come very close to the US model of as many people as possible with private insurance, or public money spent for profit-making health organisations

and we know from stories from the US just how ghastly dealing with private insurance companies who never pay out or who hake treatment mid cancer care to want to stand as far away as possible from that.

Reforms NHS policies if one checks (Google Reform NHS)

I just did.

Of course, there is some 'level-headed' thinking, and phrases we've heard before from previous governments - like this...

There is a broad consensus on what needs to change – less hospital care, more community and self-care

Fine words. As they were when care-in-the-community was introduced.

It's a good idea, in principle. How it would work under Reform is another matter. Public spending will not be high on their priority list.

I think what Reform are saying on health Dickens is that ‘we will expect your family, friends and neighbours to look after you at home if you’re ill, and to stay well you should look after yourself, because if you don’t, we won’t’. (I think there’s a subtle difference between care in the community and community care in their minds). I’m not sure everybody who is going to vote Reform has understood that is the underlying message.

I haven’t seen anything re Reform & the NHS that puts the wind up me Casdon.

www.reformparty.uk/nhs

Oh be careful, Casdon - you'll be accused of treating Reform voters as stupid careless! Just as many of us were accused of belittling Brexit voters when we got anywhere within light years of saying "That's just what we said would happen" when it did.

No need for nasty personal insults surely? Why do posters DO this - stir the pot when a perfectly agreeable discussion is taking place?

Go through it with a fine tooth comb Urmstongran. It’s got more holes in it than a sieve. I could unpick it line by line, brut here are some of the glaring issues.
What happens if staff aren’t attracted back by the promise to pay no basic rate tax for three years. How much would this cost?
No mention of how ‘waiting lists’ for GPs will be reduced that isn’t already in place.
Emphasis on non NHS solutions - abroad, private care, and as I suspected and most worryingly, on voluntary organisations.

Nicenanny3

Urmstongran

Actually I’m not. usual Tory voter growstuff. I’ve only ever voted for them once when I lent them my vote.

I'm a usual Tory voter and I and my husband are voting for The Reform Party. From little acorns big oak trees grow 👍

Excellent! Another two votes to split the Labour opposition.

Keep it up! And tell all your Conservative voting friends to do the same!

I see what you mean Casdon. So why, when I listen to the intelligent and courteous Ben Habib do I agree with what he says? His thoughts chime with mine.

Anyway, it’s all academic. Reform are not going to form a government. My vote is probably a protest vote only but I’m determined to make it.

Labour will win so what THEY promise about the NHS is more pertinent.

Urmstongran

I see what you mean Casdon. So why, when I listen to the intelligent and courteous Ben Habib do I agree with what he says? His thoughts chime with mine.

Anyway, it’s all academic. Reform are not going to form a government. My vote is probably a protest vote only but I’m determined to make it.

Labour will win so what THEY promise about the NHS is more pertinent.

I hope and pray you’re right, it really does serve the Tories right if their normal supporters do make protest votes. I’m taking nothing for granted until I know the results on July 5/6th

Casdon

Go through it with a fine tooth comb Urmstongran. It’s got more holes in it than a sieve. I could unpick it line by line, brut here are some of the glaring issues.
What happens if staff aren’t attracted back by the promise to pay no basic rate tax for three years. How much would this cost?
No mention of how ‘waiting lists’ for GPs will be reduced that isn’t already in place.
Emphasis on non NHS solutions - abroad, private care, and as I suspected and most worryingly, on voluntary organisations.

He on earth they can fund even one their promises is beyond me and much as I’d love the personal allowance to be raised to £20,000, it’s utterly ridiculous and financial suicide.

As for “coaxing” all the NHS workers who left or retired back to work, good luck with that.

Never ever ever wish for the USA model if private healthcare, you can’t pay, you die and even insurance doesn’t cover everything.

“How” not “he”

If it's a supposed dead cert that Labour will get in why are posters/people so worried about Reform. Or are you secretly worried the polls are wrong just like the Brexit vote proved to be and why belittle other posters does it make you feel superior.

Nicenanny3

If it's a supposed dead cert that Labour will get in why are posters/people so worried about Reform. Or are you secretly worried the polls are wrong just like the Brexit vote proved to be and why belittle other posters does it make you feel superior.

I don’t think Labour voters are worried about Reform. They will hoover up mainly Tory votes.

Brexit is done, now it’s all about domestic policies, and trying to climb out of the mess we are in.

No poll, anywhere, suggests Reform will get any sort of power - even Farage says they are only aiming at being an effective opposition.

Nicenanny3

If it's a supposed dead cert that Labour will get in why are posters/people so worried about Reform. Or are you secretly worried the polls are wrong just like the Brexit vote proved to be and why belittle other posters does it make you feel superior.

It’s not belittling anybody to identify the apparent flaws in a party’s manifesto Nicenanny3, or to query if supporters understand the potential implications of plans.. All the party manifestos have been, and will continue to be subject to scrutiny by people with different political beliefs, right up to polling day and beyond. I read and interpreted what was said, as I’m sure you have. Your view on the message in the Reform literature is different regarding health to the way I’ve interpreted, so feel free to critique it.

What scares me, when people say how great Farage is and how good Reforms policies are is feeling that we have learned nothing from history

Some interesting numbers from Rob Ford (Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, author, works with Curtice at the BBC) at the midway point of the election campaign:

Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

"The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

"More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...•

swingometer.substack.com/p/the-half-time-verdict

Siope

Some interesting numbers from Rob Ford (Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, author, works with Curtice at the BBC) at the midway point of the election campaign:

Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

"The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

"More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...•

swingometer.substack.com/p/the-half-time-verdict

Is it Sunak - the party - or both, do you think?

He does appear to be like a stall sales-man trying to tempt would be customers who are already walking away by grabbing at various objects on his stall saying "wait a minute - what about this then?"

If one is genuinely concerned about politics in the long term, of course one wants to hold Reform to account for its policies in detail just as much as the L Party or the Conservative Party.

Not to feel superior, nor fear, but concern, especially for issues raised above. If I'm asked to explain why I support the Labour Party on X or why I would do my best.

Whats strange about asking it of Reform supporters?

For the nerds - you can see a really detailed breakdown for your parliamentary seat here, it’s even categorised for the nature of your electoral ward if you go into postcode lookup.
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

Dickens

Siope

Some interesting numbers from Rob Ford (Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, author, works with Curtice at the BBC) at the midway point of the election campaign:

Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

"The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

"More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...•

swingometer.substack.com/p/the-half-time-verdict

Is it Sunak - the party - or both, do you think?

He does appear to be like a stall sales-man trying to tempt would be customers who are already walking away by grabbing at various objects on his stall saying ^"wait a minute - what about this then?"^

grabbing at various objects on his stall saying "wait a minute - what about this then?"

There have been far worse Prime Ministers than Sunak, self-serving or those who ignore advice and are determined to tread a dangerous psth. It seems to me that he is a decent man, perhaps ill-advised by idiots, who is more out of his depth as Prime Minister than self-serving and devious.

In many ways I agree with you Calli - Sunak seems a decent and caring family man. I like him as a person. He seems kind. And I suppose he’s only been PM for a couple of years so we can’t hang 14 years of cavalier insouciance on him per se. But I cannot vote for him. The Tory party are a busted flush as far as I’m concerned.

Yes, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine were unknown unknowns (to quote Rumsfeld) but the rot started with Cameron ‘call me Dave’ and George Osborne (austerity on steroids) and now I feel Tory is a toxic brand.

He is still far more right wing than he comes across as.

Urmstongran

In many ways I agree with you Calli - Sunak seems a decent and caring family man. I like him as a person. He seems kind. And I suppose he’s only been PM for a couple of years so we can’t hang 14 years of cavalier insouciance on him per se. But I cannot vote for him. The Tory party are a busted flush as far as I’m concerned.

Yes, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine were unknown unknowns (to quote Rumsfeld) but the rot started with Cameron ‘call me Dave’ and George Osborne (austerity on steroids) and now I feel Tory is a toxic brand.

I shan't be voting for them either Urmstongran but probably not the same as you 🙂
Both Sunak and Starmer seem to be decent men, Starmer more politically able than Sunak. I just hope that Starmer will not be swayed by some of dafter members of his future Government.

I think you’ll find that Starmer is a lot tougher than many people seem to realise. Not many people could have brought the Labour party to where it is now.