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Follow the Polls

(710 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 07:29:20

I am not sure if it will be possible over the next 42 days, but I thought it would be fun to try to see. How the polls perform after the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make.

Whilst the gap is huge at the moment, it will almost certainly close as the days go by.

I think I’ll use Politico (poll of polls)

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 16:13:48

Nicenanny3

Starmer would be out of his depth going head to head with Nigel Farage, Farage would win hands down. Starmer would be lost without his autoque and Starmer's policies would be torn to shreds, it won’t happen. Starmer's last interview when he mentioned God knows how many times before that his father was a tool maker and the audience laughed and there he was the next day saying his father would turn in his grave because people laughed at him being a tool maker, they were laughing at you Starmer you idiot.

Starmer is not a natural orator - Farage is.

It's what they would / will do for the nation - as a whole - that matters. To me, anyway.

Boris Johnson was not exactly eloquent when speaking, either, but remained (and remains) popular. And La Truss made quie a few people cringe when holding forth.

Politicians are not all blessed with the gift of fluency in public speaking. Much like everyone else.

But we will / would all be more affected by what they do rather than what they say and how they say it.

Siope Fri 14-Jun-24 16:21:05

Just to remind all those who think Farage’s demands for more airtime are reasonable: he was too scared to take up the offer of a 30 minute prime time BBC interview slot, which was offered to, and accepted by, all the other party leaders.

MayBee70 Fri 14-Jun-24 17:09:23

Siope

Just to remind all those who think Farage’s demands for more airtime are reasonable: he was too scared to take up the offer of a 30 minute prime time BBC interview slot, which was offered to, and accepted by, all the other party leaders.

Yes. I was going to mention that. He’s demanding a head to head with Starmer because he knows it wouldn’t be possible anyway. He’s failed to get elected many time, what right has he got to make these demands angry. He’s only here because even Trump had the sense to not want to use him. This is another Emperors New Clothes situation where many of us are bemused why others can’t see this man for what he is ( as also happened with Johnson).

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 18:52:33

MayBee70

Siope

Just to remind all those who think Farage’s demands for more airtime are reasonable: he was too scared to take up the offer of a 30 minute prime time BBC interview slot, which was offered to, and accepted by, all the other party leaders.

Yes. I was going to mention that. He’s demanding a head to head with Starmer because he knows it wouldn’t be possible anyway. He’s failed to get elected many time, what right has he got to make these demands angry. He’s only here because even Trump had the sense to not want to use him. This is another Emperors New Clothes situation where many of us are bemused why others can’t see this man for what he is ( as also happened with Johnson).

He should be "demanding" a head-to-head with Sunak not Starmer.

His argument is with the Conservatives who he's accused of failing to institute Brexit as he thinks it should have been done, and immigration which he believes the party has messed up on.

“You can recognise the fact that some people are good at what they do even if they have evil intent.”

... his view on Putin. Who, of course, he doesn't like as a human being but admires as an 'operator'.

I'm wary of anyone who admires a politician who has his opponents murdered, even to the extent of endangering the lives of those in another country in order to destroy them. Corbyn was castigated for suggesting that we prove that Russia was involved in the Salisbury attack - are we going to get a similar 'request' from Farage in order to support his evident admiration for Putin?

I personally would like to see him grilled alone on Reform's manifesto, hear him explain how some of those fine words (which butter no parsnips) translate into action, the reality of their plans to fix the NHS, community care, etc.

Going head-to-head with either Sunak or Starmer will just end up with the usual accusations and counter-accusations and this does not illuminate their manifesto promises to the public.

I have no intention of voting for this (I believe) dangerous populist, but the manifesto is so light on how the various issues that worry the electorate would be dealt with, that I would like Farage to explain it in detail so that people are totally aware of what they are voting for. At the moment, it seems to rest on "he tells it like it is". Well, yes - to some degree everyone can do that, some more eloquently than others, we can all say that people are 'fed-up with this, that and the other', but what does that prove, and what are the answers?

Urmstongran Fri 14-Jun-24 19:57:10

Reform will be good for the country as ‘opposition’. Holding Starmer's feet to the fire in the HoC (all being well).

Talking of manifestos (which the parties ignore anyway once in power) Farage said ‘we’re not providing one. We will set out a contract instead.’

Fair enough.
We only need a broad outlook of their viewpoint at this stage as they are not going to be in government.

MayBee70 Fri 14-Jun-24 20:27:47

I suppose, as a limited company and not a political party, a contract makes much more sense.

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 21:15:44

MayBee70

I suppose, as a limited company and not a political party, a contract makes much more sense.

Good point!

Wheniwasyourage Fri 14-Jun-24 21:25:09

Urmstongran

Reform will be good for the country as ‘opposition’. Holding Starmer's feet to the fire in the HoC (all being well).

Talking of manifestos (which the parties ignore anyway once in power) Farage said ‘we’re not providing one. We will set out a contract instead.’

Fair enough.
We only need a broad outlook of their viewpoint at this stage as they are not going to be in government.

Rubbish! Sorry, Urmstongran, but rubbish! Apart from anything else, the Faragist party, whatever they call themselves this time, may get a certain number of votes, but as we still use the outdated FPTP system they are unlikely to get enough seats to be any sort of opposition in the House of Commons. As for their policies, IMO they are rubbish too. the man Farage is just full of himself and overindulged by the media.

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 21:28:55

Urmstongran

Reform will be good for the country as ‘opposition’. Holding Starmer's feet to the fire in the HoC (all being well).

Talking of manifestos (which the parties ignore anyway once in power) Farage said ‘we’re not providing one. We will set out a contract instead.’

Fair enough.
We only need a broad outlook of their viewpoint at this stage as they are not going to be in government.

The devil is in the detail. A little more 'detail' is necessary otherwise what is one actually voting for?

I think people already understand Reform's broad-outlook in principle, but at some point that's got to translate into this is what we would do No? Particularly if they are going to be in Opposition.

Some have complained that Starmer, as the Opposition, simply attacks Sunak but doesn't come up with any ideas - those are the lines I'm thinking along. If Reform are going to hold Starmer's feet to the fire, they, equally, will have to do more than simply 'rubbish' him - that's the easy bit.

Siope Fri 14-Jun-24 21:34:33

Reform will be good for the country as ‘opposition’. Holding Starmer's feet to the fire in the HoC (all being well)

Please tell me you are joking, and that you know Reform won’t be even close to being the majority opposition party?

Obviously that will be one of the main parties, and the SNP will (continue to) have more MPs than Reform.

Galaxy Fri 14-Jun-24 21:40:47

Their position in the polls is significant it's not a good idea to pretend it isnt. Parties such as reform can implode but I wouldnt be amazed if they become the opposition, maybe not this election but the next. The Tories if history is anything to go by will flounder in opposition and pick a range of weak leaders.

Casdon Fri 14-Jun-24 21:55:38

UKIP polled 19% at their peak Galaxy. Whether Reform will be another flash in the pan we don’t know yet, but bear in mind the Tories have been hanging in there since 1678 and they won’t go down without a fight. I’ve seen suggestions that Farage wants to become an MP above all, then he will drop Reform and bid to be the next Tory leader.

Casdon Fri 14-Jun-24 22:07:46

You have to laugh - latest offering from Johnson in the Mail.
Is headed:
‘If Labour wins big, the Commons will be crammed with Palestinian-flag waving Corbynistas - and it won't just be the rich getting soaked, it'll be everyone. Voting Tory is the ONLY way to stop Starmergeddon’

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 22:39:05

Casdon

You have to laugh - latest offering from Johnson in the Mail.
Is headed:
‘If Labour wins big, the Commons will be crammed with Palestinian-flag waving Corbynistas - and it won't just be the rich getting soaked, it'll be everyone. Voting Tory is the ONLY way to stop Starmergeddon’

He's really getting into the Daily Mail narrative isn't he!

What a fall from grace - PM to media hack.

I think he might be competing with Farage - though even Farage has a bit more panache with the written and spoken word.

Starmergeddon, LOL!

MayBee70 Sat 15-Jun-24 00:05:12

Pre referendum we were chatting to some people on a Conservative Remain stall in a local marketplace. They bemoaned the fact that their party had become ‘just a load of journalists’. At the time we didn’t understand what they meant but looking at people like Johnson and Gove I now understand why they feared for the future of their party. I don’t understand how Johnson has the gall to tell people to vote for a party that he helped destroy purely for his own personal narcissistic ambitions.

Allsorts Sat 15-Jun-24 07:06:06

Can anyone tell me how Keir and Angela have done a full u turn on being full on Corbyn supporters to what they are supposed to be now. Impossible.

J52 Sat 15-Jun-24 07:25:06

Allsorts

Can anyone tell me how Keir and Angela have done a full u turn on being full on Corbyn supporters to what they are supposed to be now. Impossible.

Didn’t Farage himself say that people are allowed to change their minds.
Circumstances sometimes require people to be flexible. The country is now in quite a different situation.

Iam64 Sat 15-Jun-24 07:52:58

Allsorts

Can anyone tell me how Keir and Angela have done a full u turn on being full on Corbyn supporters to what they are supposed to be now. Impossible.

It’s a political expectation and tradition to support your party leader. I don’t believe Starmer or Rayner have abandoned the belief systems that led them into the LP. Corbyn won the leadership because party members and activists supported most of his policies. He was a dreadful leader, as many of us feared he’d be.

Iam64 Sat 15-Jun-24 08:00:17

Urmstongran, I don’t believe Reform will win enough seats to form the opposition. I don’t see the party as positive for the country. Farage is a racist and it’s becoming clear the same can be said of many of Reform’s candidates.
Immigration is a key issue in this election. Many people blame ‘the boats’ for pressure on our public services and housing. Government policies, including the failure to manage and process asylum seekers are central though to the dreadful state of public services.
Farage has nothing constructive to offer. Like Trump, he appeals to the worst in humanity. (Excluding urmston from that blanket statement)

Whitewavemark2 Sat 15-Jun-24 08:30:12

Electoral Calculus dated 14 th June

Predicted seats with a 95% level of certainty (they say)

Labour 461
Tory 80
Libs 63
SNP 20
Plaid 3
Greens 2
Reform 1

Whitewavemark2 Sat 15-Jun-24 08:35:17

I actually think that a government with that level of majority will become totally ungovernable, so I am certainly not rejoicing at such a high level.

But if it does come to pass it does show the almost total rejection of Tory values snd governance I think.

The U.K. is largely a centre-ish (bit left, bit right) with nothing extreme. The Tories would do well to learn that lesson.

LizzieDrip Sat 15-Jun-24 08:54:20

Can anyone tell me how Keir and Angela have done a full u turn on being full on Corbyn supporters to what they are supposed to be now

Allsorts I don’t remember Sunak standing up against Johnson when he unlawfully prorogued parliament.

LizzieDrip Sat 15-Jun-24 09:01:01

WW I’m not convinced by the polls citing such large numbers for Labour.

It’s clear that the Tories are now pushing the idea that a massive Labour majority would be ‘bad for democracy’ in order to suppress the Labour vote - damage limitation.

Galaxy Sat 15-Jun-24 09:46:54

A massive labour majority would be worrying in the same way Johnsons result was worrying. I hope Starmer has the strength of character to 'manage' that so to speak.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 15-Jun-24 10:08:39

LizzieDrip

WW I’m not convinced by the polls citing such large numbers for Labour.

It’s clear that the Tories are now pushing the idea that a massive Labour majority would be ‘bad for democracy’ in order to suppress the Labour vote - damage limitation.

Yes I’m the same - I think July 5th will see a very different result but hopefully with a respectable Labour win.

But I do think governments with massive majorities are ungovernable.

We saw it with Johnson - although Blair always seem to hold it together.

Starmer May well find the left ungovernable eventually, but we shall see. He is undoubtedly a strong leader and is clearly ruthless if necessary.

Maybe it is just Tory leaders who are a bit spineless. Look at Cameron and the result if his weakness. May tried hard but was undone by her manifesto. Thatcher was pretty tough but even she was booted out by her own party in the end.