Follow the Polls

Someone suggested that the Tories might invoke another Zinoviev letter. I suppose it’s possible, but I think people have so much access to information now, that it would be very easy to disprove, and surely the Daily Mail has lost enough credibility as it is?

There’s an article about undecided voters in the Observer today:

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/16/left-right-cut-labour-vote-low-turnout-campaign-voters?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

WW I feel exactly the same! I just don’t believe the polls now, and so many undecided voters could change things completely.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Tories, via the right wing media, don’t pull something akin to Zinoviev out at the last minute. I feel as if they’re still not playing, what they see as, their trump card - saving it until the 11th hour.

It feels like a massive game of poker or chess🙈 Except it’s not a game and could lead to disaster for many in this country.

Latest polls, which show Reform 5% behind the Tories:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726

I accept Farage/Reform has some support but I feel more optimistic about the majority who reject his racist, confrontational divisive politics

Listening to RS and AC and they think that it is highly unlikely that the polls are correct and that there will be more votes for the Tories than is suggested by the polls.

That is exactly what I think.

I don’t mind in the least providing the Tories loose!

The polls are still much the same.

That’s what I think too WW.

However, I am intrigued about how and why the polls appear to be getting it so wrong Perhaps it’s the high number of ‘undecideds’ that’s confusing the figures.

I’m not so sure there is a hidden Tory vote out there this time. With only two weeks now until the election, and given many thousands have taken part in polls, which are representative when taken as a poll of polls it’s unlikely the result will be outside the margin of error. I travel around my area quite a bit, I look every day and I’ve still only seen one Tory placard, in a farmers field. I’ve seen literally hundreds of LibDem placards, so it looks like the farmers have turned. I think that’s where a lot of the undecided votes will go too.

Similar here Casdon, mostly Labour, a few Lib Dem, one Plaid and zero Tory along my weekend walk - this seat will revert back to Labour next month.

Hopefully you’re right Casdon🤞

Poll showing the age at which the majority would vote Tory has risen to 71!

I wonder if that is true of GN.

I’m 78 - will vote Labour.

I’m 69 - will vote Labour.

DH is 73 - he’ll vote Labour.

Round here the Tories have/had a habit of putting out a strongly worded leaflet in the last few days, with some gross exaggeration or accusation that no one has time to reply to.
But they may not have the necessary local delivery networks any more so will have to reserve that for the likes of Godalming & Ash.

Very large Ipsos MRP poll just out, again you can look by constituency, my constituency is still a tossup.
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-mrp-shows-labour-on-track-to-win-large-majority

Just had a look. I do hope that people vote tactically. This gives you a good idea where to pt your vote if you want the Tories out.

Thanks

Another new poll from YouGov.
news.sky.com/story/tories-to-slump-to-lowest-number-of-seats-since-partys-formation-new-poll-projects-13155554
Look at the Lib Dems!

Amazing figures in the latest polls! My constituency is predicted as a strong Labour hold (I knew that anyway)👏👏👏

Sunak on course (allegedly) to loose his seat.

What I think is that many people will either not bother to vote (labour dead cert) or perhaps vote green which they feel they can afford to do as the Tories “aren’t going to win”

I do think this is a real danger for Labour.

Do enough people follow the polls for the predictions to make a significant difference to whether or not they vote?

I wonder if many people will have learned not to be complacent after the Brexit vote disaster?

I thought at first glance this was the weather map for last week (cold) and next week (hot!)

I doubt any party has a hidden vote but I think voter apathy and expectations that it's going to be Labour by a long chalk will reduce turn out (especially if it rains) and thus let a few Tories through beyond the poll predictions.

I hope people vote

Changing the subject slightly, I think the people who were close to the action who made bets on the date of the election should all have the book thrown at them. It’s a real betrayal at the heart of government. I do feel very sorry for Sunak regarding this, it’s one trouble that should never be brought to the door of any PM.

Wow , just seen the Telegraph poll, what a Tory wipeout suggested!!