Follow the Polls

I agree Casdon. I see a police officer has been arrested and another employee suspended today. It’s shameful to bet in this way

The Tories are involved with sleaze and allegedly insider trading.

They still haven’t learned.

What on earth will it take to make them behave with a moral compass firmly in place?

I'm not sure they have been blessed with a moral compass.

Some while ago I read that brain scan experiments were done where it was possible to tell whether the person was more likely to vote left or right in politics with fairly high degree of accuracy. Even the most innocent of words are interpreted differently.

Interesting, isn't it.

Sorry can't remember any source details but, if googled, I expect this can be found.

I have to admit that this made me laugh - supreme irony.
news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-sunak-starmer-conservatives-labour-reform-davey-lib-dem-12593360?postid=7847033#liveblog-body

Saatchi (speaking on the newsagents) saying that the Tories are losing because they are incompetent and cruel, and the only way that they can possibly turn it around is to play it totally dirty.

So they might have something waiting to come out in the last couple of weeks.

I’m confident that they aren’t going to win however dirty they play it now - nobody believes what they say, so people will vote anything but - it’s game over.

The interesting question is whether the loss of the Tory campaign director will make the campaign better or worse. 🤔

Iam64

I agree Casdon. I see a police officer has been arrested and another employee suspended today. It’s shameful to bet in this way

Even more candidates are involved by the look of it. The you know what is hitting the fan.
news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-sunak-starmer-conservatives-labour-reform-davey-lib-dem-12593360

Mamie

The interesting question is whether the loss of the Tory campaign director will make the campaign better or worse. 🤔

DH tells me that they have had to withdraw an advert for the party that involves a roulette wheel and mentions gambling. They really haven’t thought this through, have they.

Casdon

Iam64

I agree Casdon. I see a police officer has been arrested and another employee suspended today. It’s shameful to bet in this way

Even more candidates are involved by the look of it. The you know what is hitting the fan.
news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-sunak-starmer-conservatives-labour-reform-davey-lib-dem-12593360

Thank you for that sky ref - its a live summary of the leaders as it happens and very interesting and will stand as a useful record afterwards.

Have you seen the Led by Donkeys Farage message in the sand? Strong stuff.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cttZHofdWAk

Thanks for that - I can’t do links on this I-pad so it is useful to see other people putting them up.

I see Chris Skidmore a previous Tory minister has said he will vote labour.

No real change in polls.

I read that Alastair Campbell on CNBC has said that he thinks the polls showing a Tory wipeout are wrong. I agree.

Electoral calculus latest

Pred VotesPred Seats

CON19.9%76

LAB39.5%457

LIB 11.6%66

Reform17.8%3

Green6.0%2

SNP 3.5%22

PlaidC 0.7%4

Sorry that wasn’t done well. Hope you can make sense of it.

It was great WW - thanks.

I’m with you and Alistair - I think the polls are wildly overstating the Labour lead.

LizzieDrip

It was great WW - thanks.

I’m with you and Alistair - I think the polls are wildly overstating the Labour lead.

Have you got a theory why they might be so wrong?

I do think it might have a lot to do with undecideds, and people who are not admitting to vote Tory.

But I don’t really know.

WW I think it’s likely to do with the two things you suggest.

There’s apparently a large cohort of people who don’t want to admit to voting Tory (even in a poll) - they’re called ‘Shy Tory’ voters. They will vote Tory on the day. I think a similar thing happened with the Brexit referendum. Beforehand, in polls, people didn’t want to admit to voting Leave - but then they actually voted Leave!

I also think a lot of undecideds might have been Tory voters who feel they should vote differently but, on the day, will put their ❌ in the Tory box. I suppose these undecideds are currently skewing the opinion polls.

Listening to Alistair on TRIP, he seems to think along these lines too.

I’m always very wary of polls because people can just say anything they want - they don’t necessarily have to carry it out on the day! I know the modern polls are highly sophisticated … but they’re still just a projection aren’t they.

We’ll know on 5th July anyway🙈 Will you be doing an all-nighter WW?

Join the overnighters LizzieDrip, I’ll definitely be there too, I imagine quite a few will be burning the midnight oil!

Yes, I’ll be up!

I daren’t go to bed because, on the night of the Brexit referendum, I said to my husband these famous, last words:

“I’m going to bed. No need to stay up all night for the results. The British people will never vote to leave the EU”🙈🙈🙈🙈🙈

I toddled off to bed … and we all know how that turned out! So, an all-nighter for me this time!

I’m wary of polls too but this time feels different.Won’t be long until we find out tho.
I will be working nights round early July but will find out what’s happened the next day.

Perhaps we should do a virtual sweepstake the day before, and the honour of Gransnet Queen of Politics (as opposed to Queen Bee, obviously) for the day should be awarded to whoever is nearest?

I’m joining the All Night Long gang which I’ve done since March 1974 and not once have I been on the winning side! Proper kiss of death my vote….

LizzieDrip

Yes, I’ll be up!

I daren’t go to bed because, on the night of the Brexit referendum, I said to my husband these famous, last words:

“I’m going to bed. No need to stay up all night for the results. The British people will never vote to leave the EU”🙈🙈🙈🙈🙈

I toddled off to bed … and we all know how that turned out! So, an all-nighter for me this time!

I’ll never forget that night. We were away for the weekend. I went for a walk at 10 which I think was when the polls closed. Got back to our B&B and put the tv on. The minute the result from Newcastle came through I knew we were in trouble and then the night turned into a waking nightmare. The nastiness leading up to the referendum and then the nastiness we experienced when we went on protests and marches afterwards will always stay with me. That referendum changed something about this country and the people in it .