Follow the Polls

Boo!😡🤪

casdon or huge cockroaches🕷️🕷️🕷️🪳🪳🪳

Whitewavemark2

Mamie

Joseann

In France, polling day is on a Sunday. I think yesterday's turnout was around 60%, which is fairly high. Marine Le Pen appears to be celebrating. Whether this will influence our voters' choice, who knows?

Reading this morning's papers I am not sure anyone knows what will happen next Sunday. A week of intense politicking ahead! Very glad the RN didn't win in our commune though.
Promise not to derail WWM2. 😊

I don’t mind🙂.

That is interesting as well

So how does the two votes work. ?And so far we are reading Le Pen is ahead?

As I understand it Le Pen / Bardella are ahead and could win a majority, but most pundits saying a very messy hung parliament.
The low-scoring candidates drop out after round 1 and usually it is a straight run-off between the first teo, but this one is unusual as there will apparently be more three way events. The Republicans (Tory) did very badly so the Far Right, the Left Coalition (including some Far Left) are ahead with the current Macron party able to continue to round 2 in some places. I think there will be a lot of tactical discussion going on.

Two not teo....

Will macron team up with the left?

We live in a democracy, as does France, so we just have to go with whatever the result is. I think protests are silly because you can't intimidate people into changing their vote. I don't like people getting incensed and violent if they don't get the government they want, but that's just me.

Electoral calculus has updated its poll prediction - now dated 30/06

Tory 61
Labour 470
Libs 71
Reform 7
Green 3
SNP. 15
Plaid 3

That seems extraordinary. I’m not quite sure I can believe that, although it would be quite funny to watch so many Portillo moments.

TBH I don’t think there is a cats chance in hell for that prediction to be right, but how are they all getting it so wrong?

Casdon Yes entries are open at midday snd close before the exit poll is announced so closed say at 9pm.

Politico have posted an update but the only difference is Reform dropping to 15%

Whitewavemark2

Will macron team up with the left?

It looks as if they might be thinking about a deal with the left for candidates to stand down in some constituencies to prevent splitting the vote and letting the right in.

Mamie

Whitewavemark2

Will macron team up with the left?

It looks as if they might be thinking about a deal with the left for candidates to stand down in some constituencies to prevent splitting the vote and letting the right in.

Good idea

Whitewavemark2

Casdon Yes entries are open at midday snd close before the exit poll is announced so closed say at 9pm.

That sounds ideal. I do the think Electoral Calculus prediction today is OTT.

I’ve noticed that on YouTube I’ve been getting a lot of targeted LibDem ads over the last few days, along the lines of ‘In your constituency only the LibDems can beat the Conservatives, so vote for us’ - this is one way they will get through to the youth vote, who on average watch a lot more YouTube than our age group I suspect.

I think that we must be reasonably confident that there is about a 20 point lead by labour, but I think where it seems to go pear shaped is when they start adding in the other parties.

I'm glad its over on Thursday!

I might be able to sleep properly after Friday. Our local candidate is doing an election playlist. If Labour win I’ll be overjoyed but if our candidate wins it will be the icing on the cake.

I’ve had a look but there is nothing of a later date than 30/6 so at the moment the Electoral Calculus data stands.

There is some interesting stuff in The Economist - how people vote by region, age, Brexit vote, gender etc -all sorts. Labour is winning in every case except our age group, where the Tories are slightly above Labour.

As soon as I see later stuff I’ll post it.

Same here MayBee!

I think our Labour candidate should win - this has always been a safe Labour seat. However, there’s been a boundary change this time, which significantly alters the ‘dynamics’ of the constituency. I’ll be heartbroken if he doesn’t win - he’s been an absolutely brilliant MP, both in the constituency and in the HoC.

We’ve also got a lot more candidates standing than in previous elections. We’ve got a nasty Reform candidate and a Pro-Life one who sent out a (IMO) highly disturbing campaign leaflet.

So, I think the local battle in my constituency may be a bit more difficult than usual.

Check out whether yours is one of these key seats where tactical voting could keep out the Tories

stopthetories.vote/keyseats?link_id=7&can_id=1034eefb8f8351f82f963c5485142d81&source=email-why-im-voting-tactically-on-thursday&email_referrer=email_2375076&email_subject=why-im-voting-tactically-on-thursday

BBC dated 01/07

Labour 40%
Tory. 20%
Reform. 16%
Lib Dem. 11%
Green. 6%
SNP 3%
Plaid 1%

Politico dated 01/07
Identical to BBC except top two parties are 1 more point each but gap the same.

Survation tonight saying Labour will have more seats than in 1997. Still showing the Tories as the official opposition

LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3

Data: www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/

Oh I was just going to post the survation one😄. I’ll do it again😄

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.

Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3

34,558 interviews…

Apparently Survation has been the most accurate in recent years, but it isn’t very different to the others.

It is their last poll before the election.