Follow the Polls

Is “proballistic” even a word?

Whitewavemark2

Is “proballistic” even a word?

😂 No...

'probabilistic' is...

😄😄😄

So to begin to prepare for our massive competition.

There are 650 seats in parliament - so try to make the number of seats add up😄😄

Entries will open from midnight tonight and close at 9.30pm tomorrow 04/07.

I’m not sure that there will be any further polls published but if there are I’ll post them asap.

In order to wait for certainty -although they are muttering about challenges because of postal voting etc. the winner will be announced on Saturday as soon as all the seats have been declared.

I will be on holiday, so in case I have something better to do I’m sure someone can step in to adjudicate😄😄😄

I’ll post the final lot of polls as I find them

YouGov’s MRP poll predicts Keir Starmer’s Labour will win 431 seats, up 229 from 2019, with the Tories on 102, down 263 seats from the last election. These numbers would give Labour a majority of 212, the largest the party has ever enjoyed. Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats were on 72 seats, up 61.
Nigel Farage’s insurgent right-wing Reform UK, meanwhile, was predicted to win three seats.

A poll by More in Common released Wednesday predicted a 210-seat majority for Labour, showing the party on 430 seats, up 228 from the last election, while the Tories were down 239 seats on 126. The Lib Dems returned as the third party with 52 seats, up 41, while the Scottish National Party held 16 seats, a loss of 32. Reform UK won two seats.

A Focaldata poll also published Wednesday suggested an even higher majority for Labour of 238, allocating the party 444 seats to the Tories’ 108 seats. The Lib Dems would also return as the third party with 57 seats, while the SNP held just 15 of Scotland’s 57 seats. Reform would again win two seats.

I will be working all night Whitewavemark2 so will have to cast my prediction for the sweepstake at 7.30 this evening.My care home is having a sweepstake too! With a real prize of a large basket of fruit and biscuits, the residents are excitedly hoping to win.😄
I know ours is virtual but I really want that trophy.

Here is my prediction

Labour a majority with

438 😄seats

Tory 99 seats

Libs 75seats

Greens 2 seats

SNP 15 seats

Reform 1

Plaid 2

DUP 8

SF 10

That’s me done.

Right, will do mine now too 😃
Labour 400
Conservative 150
Lib Dems 50
SNP 23
Greens 7
Reform 6
DUP 9
Assorted others 5

I think you've been about optimistic about the Greens Oreo, but I guess we'll know this time tomorrow.

I’m a bit more pessimistic for Labour.
Labour 384 seats
Tories 151
Lib Dem 76
SNP 14
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 2
Reform 2
N Irish nationalist parties 9
N Irish unionist parties 9

Cassandra here, wailing along the seashore. I fear that the Tories will do far better than predicted, making the gap between them and Labour closer than predicted, and my LD figure rather low:
Labour 365
Cons 210
Lib Dem 40
SNP 10
DUP 7
SF 7
Other NI 3
Plaid 3
Green 3
Reform. 2

My Labour candidate has just knocked on the door to say “hello” and thank you for voting.

Nice chap.

It is interesting that most of you put the total Reform seats very low.

Live in hope.

What do you think re Reform, Varian? I'm assuming that their vote-splitting worth won't be up to much in the end.

Id love to see your predicted total seats for all the parties varian, your perspective is helpful.

Righto, here’s my vote:

Labour 393
Tory 132
LD 75
Reform 3
Green 2
SNP 33
DUP 7
Others 5

I am torn between what I would really like to see and what I think is likely.

I think that there are still a lot of "shy Tories" around.

There are also baked-in party loyalists like the person I spoke to yesterday who was singing the praises of our wonderful LibDem MP who had so impressed her with her response to flooding and various other local issues, but then told me she couldn't possibly vote for her. In spite of the fact that she thought our previous Tory MP was appalling (drugs, sex and dodgy Russian money), she will always vote Conservative.

So it is hard to say how many Conservatives will ever actually vote for another party. On the other hand I know a former Conservative councillor who says he will vote Reform. I also think some traditional Tory voters will stay at home.

What I would like to see is Ed Davey as the Leader of the Opposition with 80 seats and Conservatives with 70. However I realise this could probably only happen if Reform got about 15 seats, and I would rather they got none.

Apart from anything else I think PMQs would be much improved by pitting Davey against Starmer, rather than a tedious repeat of the Sunak v Starmer slanging match which we've seen enough of.

What I expect to happen is Conservatives will get about 150 seats and the LibDems about 50.

I hope I'm wrong.

I couldn't even begin to work out figures for the sweepstake and it's too late to try, now☹️

But may the best Gran win🤣

Thanks for the thread, Whitewavemark2. It has been fun, not that it has moved in any direction really!
Have a good holiday!

PS Sorry, I can't do Maths, I barely understand the scores at SW19.

My predictions:
Labour - 400
Tory - 100
LibDems - 50
Reform - 3
Greens - 3

The rest will be taken by independents, SNP etc.

Bookmarking to check up....

Oops, I think I was too late - but the exit poll hasn’t been announced yet.

So actual seats

Labour 411

Tory. 121

Libs 71

SNP

Reform 9

Greens 4

Plaid 4

These are figures from the zHoC library. Interestingly they list the Speaker as 1. Does anyone know if his seat gets voted on. Well it must do, I suppose, but how does that work?

Now to work out who won😄😄