Follow the Polls

zakouma66

They could call their new party Cummings and Goings.

I like that!

Anniebach

Andrea Leadsom going

‘Asamother’ Leadsom. Another one who persuaded people to vote Brexit and is now leaving other people to sort the mess out that they created.

Day 2

Still no discernible movement in poll for either of the two main parties.

Sunak seems to be developing a watery theme as after his wet look at the announcement of the election, on day two he was found sitting in a ferry -not sure where he was going but it was somewhere in Belfast and later made a speech in front of the Titanic building - was that a metaphor of what is happening to the Tory party? Sunak’s perambulations are seemingly entirely alone without any of his fellow Westminster colleagues, whereas Starmer seems unable to go anywhere without one of his Westminster colleagues in tow. Footage of Starmer is never without the word change being waved at him to remind him of his message to the great British public.

Takeaway message of the day.

Tory - be very worried about change

Labour - we want change.

Inspiring isn’t it!?

Day 2 also saw a start of the expected rush of ministers to the door - Gove being a notable one. Leadsome being another. Brexit is well and truly over.

“The Conservative Party has said it would bring back mandatory national service if it wins the general election.
It said 18-year-olds would have a choice of either joining the military full-time, or volunteering one weekend every month carrying out a community service.
The party is proposing a Royal Commission to consider the details but would plan for the first teenagers to take part in September 2025.
The cost is expected to be around £2.5bn per year.
Under the plans, young people could choose a full-time, 12-month placement in the armed forces or UK cyber defence, learning about logistics, cyber security, procurement or civil response operations.
Their other option would be to volunteer one weekend per month - or 25 days per year - in their community with organisations such as fire, police and the NHS.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he believed bringing back compulsory service across the UK would help foster the "national spirit" that emerged during the pandemic.
Mr Sunak said: “This is a great country but generations of young people have not had the opportunities or experience they deserve and there are forces trying to divide our society in this increasingly uncertain world.
“I have a clear plan to address this and secure our future. I will bring in a new model of National Service to create a shared sense of purpose among our young people and a renewed sense of pride in our country."
The prime minister said the move would help young people to learn "real world skills, do new things and contribute to their community and our country".
I think I’m now in some sort of nightmare….

It’s another thing designed to appeal to their core membership, with no demonstrable policy outcomes .

We’re back in nostalgic nonsense territory, so here’s a nostalgic Yes Minister clip on national service
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahgjEjJkZks

Day 3.

Still no discernible movement in the polls.

The Sunday papers are reporting that the Tories are really, really cross that they announced a snap election that took them by surprise.

Labour, who seem to have been in election mode for months seem to have got smoothly into gear.

No major gaffs to report yet, just the odd unnoticeable blip.

Day 3

There is a hint that Labour is increasing its lead, but I think we need to see more results before it can be confirmed.

Labour Lead in Polls with Fieldwork since GE2024 date was announced:

Techne: 🌹 LAB +26 (+3)
WeThink: 🌹 LAB +25 (+2)
More in Common: 🌹 LAB +17 (+1)

No major gaffs to report yet, just the odd unnoticeable blip

I think the National Service announcement is has the potential to turn into a decent sizec gaffe, particularly now Cleverley is popping up on the TV to deny it’ll have criminal sanctions.

But that's not really a gaffe. We're looking for the real bloopers, like from previous campaigns, where an embarrassing unintentional comment comes out.

Someone was saying that we will have to wait until week 3/4 - that is when things begin to unravel a bit.

Day 4

No movement.

Yesterdays headlines

Tory - will bring back a form of conscription.

Labour - will not raise income tax or NI

The latest polls (last night) collated by the BBC.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726

Casdon

Whitewavemark2

Urmstongran

Great 👍

Yes but I understand say 10/1 - that £10 back for every pound you bet.

But what does 2/17 mean?

I looked it up. This is the principle.

A bet with odds of 9/1 odds has a 10% probability of occurring, whereas a bet with odds of 1/2 has a 50% probability.

I can’t do the maths off the top of my head, but 2/17 odds must be very much in favour of a Labour victory.

Very simple - just round it up to 2/18 = 9 to 1
So basically 2/17 means Labor are minutely ahead at c 9.something!

You cannot rely on polls for accuracy!
They are often wrong, incomplete, skewed, or biased in their information. There is NOT one reliable poll over another.

Then, lo and behold! - the electorate fools everyone by the actual voter outcome and the person you believed was going to win ended up being the loser when you wake up in the morning.

Polls are mostly money making endeavors for the pollSTERS.

Gundy

*You cannot rely on polls for accuracy!*
They are often wrong, incomplete, skewed, or biased in their information. There is NOT one reliable poll over another.

Then, lo and behold! - the electorate fools everyone by the actual voter outcome and the person you believed was going to win ended up being the loser when you wake up in the morning.

Polls are mostly money making endeavors for the pollSTERS.

Thanks for that bit of information that of course none of us knew!!😄😄

The clue is in the OP.

A bit of fun.

The best way to follow progress is to check the betting odds. Bookies rarely lose!
www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats?selectionName=labour

All bases are covered on this thread, all polls wherever they come from, and bookies odds. Defections, resignations, expert views - you name it. It’s turning out so far to be a lot more interesting regarding what’s actually happening than most political threads do, thanks to WWM2.

Whitewavemark2

Someone was saying that we will have to wait until week 3/4 - that is when things begin to unravel a bit.

Yes. I don't, however, think either of the two leaders will make any huge howlers, though I could be wrong. Rishi doesn't always listen to other people talking because he is in such a hurry to say what he wants to impart. I actually think Starmer might come across as more relaxed and measured, but he can sound boring.
It's possible that, under stress as things hot up, one of them might lose the plot, but just talking about their own backgrounds isn't really putting them under pressure.
I just wish they both could improve their sense of humour and laugh at themselves more, a bit like Reagen used to with a glint in his eye.

Casdon

All bases are covered on this thread, all polls wherever they come from, and bookies odds. Defections, resignations, expert views - you name it. It’s turning out so far to be a lot more interesting regarding what’s actually happening than most political threads do, thanks to WWM2.

👍 and as Whitewavemark2 said, a bit of fun too.

Say the polls don’t move an iota!! That would be a turn up and completely scupper us😄

Well that would be like the Monaco Grand Prix yesterday where the first five positions at the start were the same five positions at the finish. Just going round in circles for 78 days!

All of a sudden today things are kicking off. Sunak has suspended an outgoing MP for openly backing the Regorm candidate for her seat, and a memo criticising some MPs has been sent accidentally.
news.sky.com/story/conservatives-admit-sending-email-critical-of-own-mps-in-error-13144041

Sorry, Reform, not Regorm.

Long-standing Labour MP Kevin Brennan, Cardiff West has just announced he is standing down, citing rethink following prostate cancer surgery. He is 64.