Seems Farage has an announcement to make at 4pm today.

He's standing in Clacton On Sea at least that's what as on TikTok, Threads and X.

Well love him or hate him he's certainly got a few knickers in a twist on this thread.

On another note,still election there was a article on Google (not sure it's source and can't find it now) that predicted the Tories will do so badly that they will become the third party to the Liberal Democrats. It I definitely going to be interesting if nothing else. Myself, I don't think it's going g to be any different whoever wins. Just different ways of taking my money off me even though I'm retired

In todays Guardian "Clacton" people interviewed - quite a few were not from Clacton at all.

MaggsMcG

On another note,still election there was a article on Google (not sure it's source and can't find it now) that predicted the Tories will do so badly that they will become the third party to the Liberal Democrats. It I definitely going to be interesting if nothing else. Myself, I don't think it's going g to be any different whoever wins. Just different ways of taking my money off me even though I'm retired

What on earth does that mean? My underwear remains firmly where it should be.

What do you admire about him and his policies please?

Sorry Maggs, you are not the underwear person.

What's it in please ?

MaggsMcG

On another note,still election there was a article on Google (not sure it's source and can't find it now) that predicted the Tories will do so badly that they will become the third party to the Liberal Democrats. It I definitely going to be interesting if nothing else. Myself, I don't think it's going g to be any different whoever wins. Just different ways of taking my money off me even though I'm retired

Well, he’s not got my knickers going anywhere lol

I look on him as the constantly inconsequential joke I enjoy.😉

Well, well…. Things are shifting it seems:

“ Reform has surged to within just two points of the Conservatives in the latest YouGov poll following the return of Nigel Farage as leader.

Mr Farage’s party is up by two percentage points to 17 per cent, with the Conservatives down two on 19 per cent.

Labour is down six to 40 per cent, meaning its lead is now 21 points in the wake of YouGov changing its methodology and the former Ukip leader making a sensational return to frontline politics.

The poll was carried out on Monday, when Mr Farage announced his comeback, and Tuesday, the day of the first head-to-head TV debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.”

urms I am assuming you read YouGoc’s detailed explanation yesterday of why their changed methodology would produce different results in their non-MRP polls from today?

In case not:

Using MRP for our voting intention polling
YouGov
June 04, 2024, 3:23 PM GMT+1

Following the launch of our general election MRP model this week, we will be using the same MRP technique on our regular weekly voting intention polls during the election for Sky and the Times.

Why are we doing this?

In recent months our MRP model and our traditional voting intention figures have tended to show a slightly different picture. Our MRP model gives Labour a marginally lower vote share and the Liberal Democrats a slightly higher share. In the run up to the polling day, we want to put out clear and consistent data, using the method that we think is the most accurate. That is MRP.

What will the changes mean?

This is primarily an "under the bonnet" change. Our regularly weekly polls for Sky and the Times will still be ~2,000 people and still show national vote shares for the country. All the other questions on the poll will be run and weighted in the traditional way. But rather than using rim weighting or raking to weight the voting intention numbers, we will instead put the same data through our MRP model to produce vote shares for the country.

Is this the same as your MRP seat estimates?

No. It uses the same approach and the same model but to do a different thing. For our seat estimates we will put 60,000+ respondents through the model and project shares for 631 individual constituencies, using the demographics of each individual constituency. For our regular polls we will put ~2,000 people through the model, and project to just one geography – Great Britain as a whole.

What impact will this have on our voting intention figures?

In the present political climate, the changes will likely produce a slightly smaller Labour lead, in line with that in our larger MRP model. There are several reasons that using the MRP method currently produces a slightly lower Labour lead:

Constituency question: We drive the MRP off a question asking people how they will vote in their specific constituency, which better picks up tactical voting considerations. At the present time, this tends to increase Liberal Democrat support by around 2 points and decrease Labour support by a similar amount.
Don’t knows: The MRP model effectively reallocates don't knows. Rather than historical approaches that have done this by assuming those people will vote the way they did in the past, it does so by modelling their vote based on those of similar political background and demographics.
Turnout: The MRP approach addresses the question of turnout by basing it upon demographics, rather than self-reported turnout, where people tend to consistently overestimate their own likelihood to turnout, leading to problems of understating the turnout gap between old and young voters.
When we publish our first figures using the MRP method, we will show what the lead would have been under the old approach so that people can correctly assess whether any differences are down to the change in methodology, or genuine changes in public opinion.

The current poll was published alongside an explanation of what the figures would have pled like without the changed methodology. Maybe you would be hon st enough to include that information in your posts?

Ah. You have a forensic intelligence Siope. I defer to your greater explanation.

I wasn’t being disingenuous by the way, I simply wasn’t aware of the changes you outline.

Polls eh?

Urmstongran

Well, well…. Things are shifting it seems:

“ Reform has surged to within just two points of the Conservatives in the latest YouGov poll following the return of Nigel Farage as leader.

Mr Farage’s party is up by two percentage points to 17 per cent, with the Conservatives down two on 19 per cent.

Labour is down six to 40 per cent, meaning its lead is now 21 points in the wake of YouGov changing its methodology and the former Ukip leader making a sensational return to frontline politics.

The poll was carried out on Monday, when Mr Farage announced his comeback, and Tuesday, the day of the first head-to-head TV debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.”

Well, apparantly, they could gain 4 seats from the Tories. (More likely 1 or 2). Behind the predictions for Greens and LD’s, but whatever.

“Reform UK could win four seats thanks to Farage effect, says pollster
Reform UK could win up to four seats at the general election with Nigel Farage as leader and MP candidate, a YouGov pollster has said.

On Monday, the polling company had projected that the Right-wing party would get zero seats on July 4 in a nationwide analysis of around 60,000 voters.

However, its director of political analysis has now said the announcement by Mr Farage that he was standing to be an MP could mean Reform UK gets as many as four seats.

Patrick English told The Independent: “I do think that Farage intervening significantly increases the odds of Reform UK winning one, perhaps even two seats in Westminster. You might even put an upper band of four on that, depending on what exactly happens between now and July 4.”

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/05/general-election-latest-news-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer/

I'd have thought Farage would have got the message now since he's failed to be elected is it 8 times? Odious man, notice he doesn't mention Brexit now since it did not bring the bounties he promised.

Time to fact check Farage’s claims

Farage claims fact-checked. 100% false

❌ 2.4 mn migrants settled

❌ Immigration requires a new home every 2 mins

❌ Candidates yelling Allahu Akbar

❌ UK outperforms EU

❌ Shoplift £200 without prosecution

❌ Starmer fought for asylum benefits

😄😄😄

Not that it will make a blind bit of difference to his groupies. 😍

Whitewavemark2

Time to fact check Farage’s claims

Farage claims fact-checked. 100% false

❌ 2.4 mn migrants settled

❌ Immigration requires a new home every 2 mins

❌ Candidates yelling Allahu Akbar

❌ UK outperforms EU

❌ Shoplift £200 without prosecution

❌ Starmer fought for asylum benefits

😄😄😄

Not that it will make a blind bit of difference to his groupies. 😍

I can’t believe anyone thinks Farage speaks the truth. He’s our Pound Shop Trump.🙄

Green Party councillor shouts Allah Akbar

I’ve read Police don’t turn up for shoplifting of under £200. That what the lady in Boots told me last year. “We just move the expensive stuff behind the tills and put the empty boxes on the shelves for the customers who then pick up to bring to the till”.

Surely Whitewave we’ve ALL seen this? It can’t just be in Urmston!
🤣

Which of his attributes and policies do people particularly admire pease?

Still waiting in hope.

I don't think its about shop lifting.

Retailers are warning that a sharp rise in shoplifting is being fuelled partly by police forces not investigating the theft of items worth less than £200.

The Daily Telegraph says persistent offenders are exploiting a change in the law that allows for more minor cases to be dealt with by post.

The government said it did not diminish the seriousness of the crimes.

Police chiefs said their focus on prolific offenders and organised crime networks was working.

The £200 threshold was introduced in England and Wales in the Anti-social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014., external

The act allows anyone stealing goods costing less than £200 to plead guilty by post - or face the magistrates' court. Copied Internet website

Hello groupies 😍😍😍😍😍

👋

Such vitriol in one thread………
The way some of you go on about Nigel Farage, you’d think he was the antichrist….

Which site did you use to fact check Farage’s six claims WW?

I’m a ‘fence sitter’ by the way in case you wanted to put me in a box 😂. I generally don’t believe anything political unless I can read it myself so a pointer to your source would be good.

You remind me of a poster who used to be a regular on the N&Ps threads zakouma. It was the “still waiting in hope” that jogged my memory. Hmm.

Pantglas2

Which site did you use to fact check Farage’s six claims WW?

I’m a ‘fence sitter’ by the way in case you wanted to put me in a box 😂. I generally don’t believe anything political unless I can read it myself so a pointer to your source would be good.

X - I cut and paste.

It is a wind-up really