Have the Conservatives signed their own death warrant?

Galaxy

It's a different world/time to when UKIP were around though, it was reforms second place positions that I think were interesting. They were a relatively new party at the time of the election and will have opportunity to build on it. People didn't really see the threat of Brexit till it was here.
I think the most likely thing to happen is reform implode as historically that is what frequently happen to those new parties, but if they dont then I think they could cause a shock. Certainly in our labour branch they are seen as the 'threat' in local elections.

I don't have a crystal ball. Obviously, Reform will get more politically savvy and target the seats they're likely to win, but I would still be amazed if they poll more than about 20% of the total votes. Other parties aren't going to be unaware of the dangers - nor are voters. My money is on more people disliking Reform than liking them (not that I've ever seen that particular poll).

Galaxy

It's a different world/time to when UKIP were around though, it was reforms second place positions that I think were interesting. They were a relatively new party at the time of the election and will have opportunity to build on it. People didn't really see the threat of Brexit till it was here.
I think the most likely thing to happen is reform implode as historically that is what frequently happen to those new parties, but if they dont then I think they could cause a shock. Certainly in our labour branch they are seen as the 'threat' in local elections.

I think it depends where you live. I know for an absolute fact that Reform isn't seen as a threat in my local council elections.

Casdon

That doesn’t add up though David49, the Lib Dem’s had an only 2% difference in vote share to Reform. Labour and Lib Dem’s combined was 48%, Tory and Reform combined was 38%. If the Tories pursue a right agenda and join with Reform, they are attracting only the votes from the right, and will lose votes in the centre to the Lib Dems, not pick up more.

The biggest problem facing the Conservatives and, I suspect, Reform, is that most of their voters are over 50. The avarage age for a Conservative party member is 63, they need to widen their appeal - and that means watering down the product they offer, which will, of course, lose them their core voter.

M0nica

Casdon

That doesn’t add up though David49, the Lib Dem’s had an only 2% difference in vote share to Reform. Labour and Lib Dem’s combined was 48%, Tory and Reform combined was 38%. If the Tories pursue a right agenda and join with Reform, they are attracting only the votes from the right, and will lose votes in the centre to the Lib Dems, not pick up more.

The biggest problem facing the Conservatives and, I suspect, Reform, is that most of their voters are over 50. The avarage age for a Conservative party member is 63, they need to widen their appeal - and that means watering down the product they offer, which will, of course, lose them their core voter.

Reform's unique selling point is immigration. If Badenoch wins the leadership, the Conservatives's unique selling point will be about culture wars. None of them has anything serious or positive to say about the economy and living standards (including education and the NHS), which is what the majority of voters are concerned about. The majority of people are more socially liberal than either Reform or the current Conservative Party.

Yes red wall area here, I cant remember the figure but I think it was around 20 constituencies in the north east where reform came second.
There are ways for the right to make a strong appeal to the electorate but they would have to have a clear vision, they arent there yet.

Galaxy

Yes red wall area here, I cant remember the figure but I think it was around 20 constituencies in the north east where reform came second.
There are ways for the right to make a strong appeal to the electorate but they would have to have a clear vision, they arent there yet.

Yes, the 'red wall' is significant, but the majority of the country doesn't share the same concerns (which, of course, is why you've been sidelined - you're not in the majority).

growstuff

M0nica

Casdon

That doesn’t add up though David49, the Lib Dem’s had an only 2% difference in vote share to Reform. Labour and Lib Dem’s combined was 48%, Tory and Reform combined was 38%. If the Tories pursue a right agenda and join with Reform, they are attracting only the votes from the right, and will lose votes in the centre to the Lib Dems, not pick up more.

The biggest problem facing the Conservatives and, I suspect, Reform, is that most of their voters are over 50. The avarage age for a Conservative party member is 63, they need to widen their appeal - and that means watering down the product they offer, which will, of course, lose them their core voter.

Reform's unique selling point is immigration. If Badenoch wins the leadership, the Conservatives's unique selling point will be about culture wars. None of them has anything serious or positive to say about the economy and living standards (including education and the NHS), which is what the majority of voters are concerned about. The majority of people are more socially liberal than either Reform or the current Conservative Party.

It wasn’t meant to “add up” even if the Tories don’t win back the voters, a Tory - Reform coalition could form the next government if Starmer is not successful.

In effect it would be the same as the Tory party in 2016 held hostage by its own right wingers.

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David With the egos involved, I cannot see a Reform/Conservative coalition. For a start, the more 'normal' (to use Cleverly's word) Conservative MPs wouldn't accept it - nor would the more well-balanced Conservative voters, if they knew that was a possibility.

The UK is not going to ‘become Muslim’ any time soon.

The King is head of the Church and as long as he and his descendants are heads of state we will be a nominally Christian country.

The propaganda is getting worse, isn’t it?

Doodledog

The UK is not going to ‘become Muslim’ any time soon.

The King is head of the Church and as long as he and his descendants are heads of state we will be a nominally Christian country.

The propaganda is getting worse, isn’t it?

I must ask my son-in-law's family when they're planning their attack and how it's going to affect me.

They don't drink alcohol or eat pork, but I expect they're planning for Christmas just as they have done in the years I've known them. The mother is definitely the head of the family unit (and the main breadwinner) and their daughter is doing well with her education as a trainee doctor. The only time I've ever seen them cover their heads is when it's raining or very cold.

Doodledog

The UK is not going to ‘become Muslim’ any time soon.

The King is head of the Church and as long as he and his descendants are heads of state we will be a nominally Christian country.

The propaganda is getting worse, isn’t it?

I think we saw the result of over immigration in one community. Sectarian politics in England, led by that horrid Galloway. We do not need foreign politics being a deciding factor in our elections.

It is obviously not imminent but in time I fear I may well be right.

Robert Jenrick has put border control and illegal immigration at the centre of his campaign.

Wyllow3 and Casdon I've just been over on Google Scholar to see if there's been a study on the fact checking of UK newspapers.

There are loads of studies on specific subjects- eg, Scientific accuracy on climate change, Heath research reporting accuracy, lots on Brexit and covid.

I was hoping there'd be a literature review looking across topics for accuracy but if there is it's not recent (I restricted my search to 2020 onwards).

The Guardian does seem to come out on top of the print media from my quick look.

Freya5

Doodledog

The UK is not going to ‘become Muslim’ any time soon.

The King is head of the Church and as long as he and his descendants are heads of state we will be a nominally Christian country.

The propaganda is getting worse, isn’t it?

I think we saw the result of over immigration in one community. Sectarian politics in England, led by that horrid Galloway. We do not need foreign politics being a deciding factor in our elections.

Which community?

BevSec

It is obviously not imminent but in time I fear I may well be right.

Almost certainly after you're dead.

BevSec

Robert Jenrick has put border control and illegal immigration at the centre of his campaign.

Well, he would, wouldn't he? He knows who's going to be voting for him.

NotSpaghetti

Wyllow3 and Casdon I've just been over on Google Scholar to see if there's been a study on the fact checking of UK newspapers.

There are loads of studies on specific subjects- eg, Scientific accuracy on climate change, Heath research reporting accuracy, lots on Brexit and covid.

I was hoping there'd be a literature review looking across topics for accuracy but if there is it's not recent (I restricted my search to 2020 onwards).

The Guardian does seem to come out on top of the print media from my quick look.

But, according to one poster, it's 'weird'!

Does that make accuracy weird?

Lots of people hold a different view on The Guardian to you, many once loyal readers, feel it has deteriorated beyond recognition, it's ok for people to hold that view.

growstuff
... I suppose Trump might think so!

Galaxy

Lots of people hold a different view on The Guardian to you, many once loyal readers, feel it has deteriorated beyond recognition, it's ok for people to hold that view.

Where's your source for that?

In any case, where have I ever stated that the Guardian is my 'go to' news source? It's one of the, certainly, along with another couple of dozen news sources I read regularly.

The better news sources, of which the Guardian is one, state their sources. If I'm interested in an issue, I follow up on those sources.

Not sure you are meaning me or not Galaxy
Lots of people hold a different view on The Guardian to you

If so, I wasn't looking for a view - I was specifically looking for a research paper examining accuracy.

My "quick look" was from reading only 20 or so abstracts.

Reform are not hard right, nor are they racist, they are on the side of the 'Silen(ced) Majority' of this country who just want to preserve our values and put British people first, whatever their creed or colour. The media and other parties want you to believe that Reform are hard right because they fear their popularity.