Second wave sweeping Europe?

I promise I wasn't trying to unduly frighten anyone but most reasons people die in a year aren't infectious and I want people to take this seriously over winter because I am worried there will be more and more visits in homes. Also having a cold or flu which takes lives itself and covid at the same time can be devastating.

No arguments from me on any of that Astral.

Its just the stats, I've been disappointed by the way some of the numbers been reported on the news for example. There was a report recently that cases in Orkney had gone up by 300% in 2 days. Sounds awful, and of course it was intended to have that effect. If fact cases rose from 1 to 3!

Alegrias
That's the way I've looked at the numbers from day one.

Alegrias2

I don't disagree at all with what you've posted Astral, people think that their one little action won't make any difference, when of course it does.

Just a comment though about the deaths running at 71 in 100,000. I believe that is since the start of the pandemic? It's not really true to say this isn't good odds when we consider how many deaths there have been altogether in that time. To put the 1 in 1400 in context, around 1 in 95 people die every year in the UK, by my quick calculation. I'm not minimising it either, but we mustn't make people unnecessarily scared. The weekly rate in England at the moment is 3 in a million.

My maths is a bit rusty, but there have been just under 1400 deaths in the UK in the last week. In a population of 66 million, I think that works out to 21 in a million. If that rate carried on for a year, it would be over 1000 in a million, so an extra 66,000 deaths. If the rate carries on increasing as it is, there will be more than that.

You're right growstuff, the 3 in a million is a daily rate, my mistake. Now I'm annoyed with myself because people won't believe my argument!

The numbers are big, absolutely. Who wouldn't be alarmed at an extra 66,000 deaths a year? What that would mean is that on average an individual's risk of dying this year rises from 0.9% to 1%. (Less if you are younger, more if you are older, of course) Its a big number for society, but almost negligible risk for an individual. We are scaring people into complying when we should be getting people on side to do the right thing.

And just to be clear, I'm not suggesting lifting restrictions or anything like that. But I expect I'm going to get some stick for this.....

Alegrias it really is not on at all to quote the death rate across the board given the huge variance between different subsets of the population. I know you mentioned the variance but you didn’t quantify it.

I've made my argument really badly and I'm sorry about that.

I'm not one of these people who thinks we should abandon all restrictions, and that we should let it rip. Absolutely not. I think we need to do what we are doing, and more, to get control of the spread of the virus. And I'm not minimising the deaths, far from it.

So, I'll try to explain myself more clearly. Big numbers are mentioned for COVID deaths and cases, most often without context. Sometimes, that can lead to people not having a real grip on the size of the problem for them as individuals. For me personally, my increased chance of not living for another year has gone from 0.35% to 0.36%. I consider that to be a tiny increase, but it doesn't mean that I'm underestimating the challenge facing the world over COVID. But it does allow me to go outside my front door without being paralysed by fear.

The stat I quoted isn't the death rate, its the average person's increased chance of death over the next year. That's not the same thing at all. I can't quote the increased chance of death for all sections of society because there are so many subsets, a Gransnet post isn't the right place for it. How about this, at the extremes? Children negligible risk. Men over 85 with no co-morbidities, increased from 8.3% to 11.6%. Here's the calculator developed by UCL: covid19-phenomics.org/PrototypeOurRiskCoV.html

A very interesting link, Alegrias. I decided to check the figures for 'partial suppression' that is reducing the incidence of COVID to 1: 100 (full suppression ins 1:100,000 for someone in my situation - age 75-80 with no comorbidities - In my case the chance of my dying goes from 3.01% to 3.28%, fractional over a quarter of a percent,

There are approximately 600, 000 people in the same age group as me and with no comorbidities. About 18,000 in this group die each year. Another 95 may die if COVID is partially suppressed.

I might add, these figures are not just based on direct COVID deaths, they also include all collateral deaths from cancer, heart disease. stroke etc that will be caused by the reduction or delayed treatment that arise from COVID's demand on the health service.

These figures confirm my belief that,my chances of recovery are very good should I catch COVID, not certain, but very good, and given that I live in an area where COVID rates and deaths are low, my chance of getting it is low.

This does not mean that I will be casting mask and gloves to the wind and racing round embracing all and sundry, but it confirms the belief I have had all along, that with sensible observance of the basic face, space, hands rules, I can freely move round as much as I like because the chances of me picking up COVID are very low indeed.

Since DD was nearly COVID collateral damage. Classified as having been crtically ill, which I have discovered means life threateningly ill, requiring hospital admission (which she didn't get), I am far more worried about that than COVID.

MOnica If you were one of the "extra" 95, I don't suppose your family would be bothered too much if you were one of ten or one of a million.

Yes, you are lucky you live where you live, especially in low density housing, you don't have a large, multi-generational family in one house and you don't have to use public transport.

Talk of averages isn't all that relevant. Infection and death aren't just random and don't obey the rules of chance and probability. Most of us can minimise risks to ourselves and to others.

For every person who, like you, lives in low density housing, there is somebody who lives in high density housing. The virus doesn't infect people randomly. We know that secondary school children are the second biggest group of new cases and they are taking infection home to their families. People CAN do something to avoid being infected, but in some cases, they need financial support to do it.

My own personal risk of dying if I become infected is about 10% - and that's without the time I wouldn't be able to work/earn money and the risks of long-Covid. Those odds are too high, so I won't go anywhere where there will be people who could be infected. It's bloody hard at times.

Alegrias2

I've made my argument really badly and I'm sorry about that.

I'm not one of these people who thinks we should abandon all restrictions, and that we should let it rip. Absolutely not. I think we need to do what we are doing, and more, to get control of the spread of the virus. And I'm not minimising the deaths, far from it.

So, I'll try to explain myself more clearly. Big numbers are mentioned for COVID deaths and cases, most often without context. Sometimes, that can lead to people not having a real grip on the size of the problem for them as individuals. For me personally, my increased chance of not living for another year has gone from 0.35% to 0.36%. I consider that to be a tiny increase, but it doesn't mean that I'm underestimating the challenge facing the world over COVID. But it does allow me to go outside my front door without being paralysed by fear.

The stat I quoted isn't the death rate, its the average person's increased chance of death over the next year. That's not the same thing at all. I can't quote the increased chance of death for all sections of society because there are so many subsets, a Gransnet post isn't the right place for it. How about this, at the extremes? Children negligible risk. Men over 85 with no co-morbidities, increased from 8.3% to 11.6%. Here's the calculator developed by UCL: covid19-phenomics.org/PrototypeOurRiskCoV.html

I'm not sure how you worked out your increased risk of death. Do you have any sources? Personally, I'm prepared to do most things to minimise my risk of death.

No, I'm not paralysed with fear (and I do find people who claim that are gaslighting). I would just regard it as stupid to put myself in a situation where I could be in close contact with people who are infected. It's a simple as that. I've accepted it and organise my life round not going out.

BTW I was told about five years ago by my GP that my risk of having a heart attack or stroke within 10 years was 30%. Guess what! I didn't take steps to minimise the risk and I had a heart attack, which could have killed me if I hadn't reached hospital as quickly as I did. When I was in the ambulance, I didn't think I'd make it and I really don't want to be in that situation again.

For some reason, I keep being disconnected from the server of the website in your link.

Growstuff I used the UCL Calculator in the link to calculate the additional risk to myself. I think M0nica has been able to do it as well. I am sure its not exact but it puts some perspective on things.

Nowhere did I claim anyone but me was paralysed by fear, I certainly wasn't trying to gaslight anyone. For me, knowledge of the true facts and risks helps me manage my reaction to this stressful time. We live with risks every day and it is relevant, for me, to understand how my risks have increased. And, for me, its minimal.

I'm not racing out and hugging people, but I'm not staying indoors either. Everyone will have to make their own assessment of what is right for them. And obviously, live within the rules that have been set for us.

I nearly died 9 years ago. It came out of nowhere. I understand my own mortality and I am certainly not cavalier with my health, or anyone else's.

FRANCE
Confinement.
All of France.
Public Work to continue.
Go out for work/essential food/medical visits and exercise/dog walking.
No public meetings nor crossing borders
Non essential shops bars/rest closed
Chômage partial to be paid.
Crèches écoles collèges et lycée staying open
Official buildings staying open. Mairie/la poste etc
European external borders closed.
No crossing départemental borders, but this is relaxed til Sunday night until people have travelled home from holidays.
Tests immediate on arriving at airports.
Ephads and retirement homes can still be visited.
Funerals can continue without stricter controls.
No visiting friends.
Keep distance and for the elderly to wear a mask even if family/people are visiting.
Testing with a 30 minute result.
All measures from Thursday midnight til 1st december.
More details released tomorrow.

Thé papier de déplacement on paper or download to be carried.

Alegrias I did eventually get the site to work.

It told me that 881 people with the same characteristics as me (age, gender, underlying conditions) die every year. An additional 41 are expected to die from Covid-19. That's a 5% increase. It could be higher, but I couldn't enter two high risk conditions at the same time.

I found other sites which gave me similar or higher results for dying from Covid, although the others asked for more details of medication and medical history and told me that my risk of dying from something non-Covid was lower, which raised my relative risk of dying from Covid.

Personally, I'm not too hung up on the percentages. I have been doing what I can with lifestyle changes to cut down my risk from a non-Covid death and I have every intention of not being one of the 41 who dies from Covid. One site even told me that I was very high risk, but there was nothing else I could do to change my lifestyle. All it could do was recommend that I don't get infected in the first place - and that's what I'm trying not to do.

Deaths in the UK have now been over 300 for two days running. Nearly 40% have been in the North West, but I'm not getting complacent.

growstuff I think the extra deaths are not just COVID but those dying from other problems as a result of COVID, cancer patients who do not get diagnosis or treatment in time, those dying of heart attacks because they did not call for help in time.

Apropos your comment on my last post. If I did die how could anyone tell whether I was one of the 95 or just one of the 18,000 who would be expected to die in my age group anyway?